Grain Markets React to USDA Nov Numbers

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. SX is down 2 cents and near 12.10. SMZ is near 342.0. BOZ is near 58.88. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.57. WZ is unch and near 7.79. KWZ is down 1 cent and near 7.92. MWZ is up 4 cents and near 10.28. Market is now trying to feel its way in the dark after USDA November report.

US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. US CPI data today.

Dalian corn, soybean, soymeal, palmoil soyoil higher following US. North US wet. SW US dry.

USDA raised World corn and wheat exports to a record 406 mmt vs 378 ly. Soybean 172 vs 164 ly. USDA est of US soybean crop down 23 mil bu, exports down 40. Carryout 340 vs 362 expected. Early guess for US 2022 crop 4,500 demand 4,500, carryout 435 vs USDA baseline 300. USDA raised Brazil new 2022 crop soybean exports to record 95 mmt vs 81.7 this year. USDA raised China soybean imports to 99.8 but lowered next year 1 mmt to 100.0. Matif and Canada rapeseed prices rallied following US. World crop left at 67.5 mmt vs 72.7 ly. Argentina and central Brazil should see rain. S Brazil below normal rains.

USDA raised US corn crop 43 mil bu but raised ethanol 50. Carryout 1,493 vs 1,480 expected. Most in the trade est ethanol 150 higher and exports up 100. Carryout 1,100 vs USDA 1,493. Early guess for US 2022 crop 15,350, demand 15,100, carryout 1,570 vs USDA baseline 1,935. USDA World corn exporters stocks to use ratio 8.8 vs 7.4. this includes increase in SA crop 36 mmt yoy.

USDA increased World wheat crop 1 mmt. Still, World wheat exporters stocks to use record low 12.1. USDA did increase World wheat imports 2 mmt but raised EU and Russia exports 1 mmt each? Russia export prices will need to rally to offset higher export tax and force farmers to sell export, Argentina is testing each wheat truck for GMO. Brazil millers do not want Argentina GMO wheat.

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