Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SU is up 13 cents and near 14.19. SX is up 12 cents and near 14.08. SMU is near 387.6. BOU is near 63.13. CU is up 4 cents and near 6.06. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.91. WU is up 2 cents and near 6.68. KWU is unch and near 6.38. MWU is up 8 cents and near 8.45.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is mixed ahead of US jobs data. Crude is lower following OPEC production uncertainty.
US 8-14 day weather forecast calls for below rains in NW Midwest and PNW, normal east. Temps are above in PNW, NW and central Midwest, normal south. India monsoon poor in west.
Dalian corn/oilseed futures higher. Ag attaché est 21/22 soybean imports at 102 mmt, corn only 20 mmt.
Most look for more volatile July trade depending on weather. CBOT closed Monday for holiday. Key SU resistance 14.50, BOU 68.00, SMU 400, CU 6.40, WU 6.90, KWU 6.60 and MWU 8.60.
US fob soybeans near $567, Argentina $532. US soymeal $450. Argentina $417. Brazil June soybean exports near 10.1 mmt vs 13.0 ly. Argentina farmer sells slow due to inflation.
Matif rapeseed futures 3 week high, Canada canola new highs on concern over Canada crop.
US fob corn near $307, Argentina $241, Ukraine $266. Ukraine est corn crop 37 mmt vs 30 ly. Brazil corn crop est below 90 mmt. Parana Farmer Assoc said 80 pct crop lost due to freeze.
US HRW fob $297, Baltic $248, Russia $254. Russia est wheat crop up 2 mmt to 84.6, exports 38 up 2. Russia new crop wheat preces lower. Exports slow due to higher ocean freight and lack of vessels. Argentina 2021/22 wheat crop rated 56 pct G/E vs 55 lw and 21 ly. 32 pct soils rated poor/dry
July US/World WASDE report key for US corn and soybean demand outlook and first wheat by class est.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 5,000 soybeans, 3,000 soyoil, and 1,,000, Corn and bought 9,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net short 19,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 260,000 Corn; net long 79,000 Soybeans; net long 31,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 52,000 Soyoil.
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