Grain Futures Are Marginally Higher

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are marginally higher. SH is up 4 cents and near 14.51. SMH is near 422.9. BOH is near 64.52. CH is up 1 cent and near 6.47. WH is up 4 cents and near 7.65. KWH is up 4 cents and near 8.75. MWH is up 1 cent and near 9.23.

US stocks are lower. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher. China stocks continue higher with China reducing more Covid restrictions. EU capped Russia oil prices near $60 vs Brent near $86.87.

CH is below 6.50 support on export and ethanol demand worries. This am weather maps have less rain in Argentina forecast than on Friday. Long-term, shrinking La Nina could suggest normal S America and US Midwest 2023 weather. China is not expected to buy US corn. Brazil should be out of the market Feb-Mar. Ukraine continues to export corn and lower prices. Most are using US 2023 corn yield near 181 but could see 191 and 2023/24 carryout near 4,000 mil bu and fall 2023 corn futures near 5.20.

Wheat is up on talk of lower Dollar and hope prices are near level to encourage end user buying. Some note stabilization of Russia wheat export prices may be offering support. Prices may be closer to new Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt buying but not from US. Shrinking of La Nina could increase chances for spring US south plains rain.

Soybean futures remain in a 14.10-14.80 range. Overnight support linked to reduced China Covid restrictions. Last week disappointing EPA biofuel mandate triggered heavy selling in soyoil. US soyoil demand for biofuel could drop 500-600 mil lbs. Some fear that US will continue to lose soybean, soymeal and soyoil market share to S America and increase crop there could suggest need for lower US acres. Some could see US 2023/24 soybean carryout closer to 400 and fall 2023 SX prices closer to 10.00.

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