Written Commentary
Flight to Safety Supports the US Dollar
April 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 4 cents and near 14.21. SMZ is near 422.0. BOZ is near 62.81. CZ is down 4 cents and near 6.72. WZ is down 11 cents and near 8.69. Overnight high was 8.90. KWZ is down 8 cents and near 9.42. Overnight high was 9.61. MWZ is down 4 cents and near 9.45. Overnight high was 9.59.
SX is near 14.11. This is down from June high of 15.84 but up from July low of 12.84. SX has dropped from recent Sep high of 15.08 on slow China buying, approaching UIS harvest, weak economic fears and talk of record South America 2023 crops. Some fear 2022/23 US carryout could increase to 340 mil bu vs USDA 200 due to lower exports.
CZ is near 6.71. This is down from May high near 7.66 but up from July low of 5.70. CZ has dropped from recent high near 6.99 due to approaching US harvest and slow export sales. Corn is supported by strong cash and uncertain Black Sea exports. Some fear 2022/23 US carryout could increase to 1,510 mil bu va USDA due to lower exports.
WZ is near 8.67. This is down from May high of 12.82 but up from August low of 7.43. Record Russian crop offset by lower US HRW. Weak US export demand is offset by uncertain Black Sea exports and dry US plains weather.
US Dollar is higher. US stocks, Crude, gold, silver, copper coffee and cocoa are lower. Sugar and cotton are higher. Financial and energy markets trading weak macro-economic slowdown from pandemic, Ukraine war and inflation. Inflation worries has Central Banks raising interest rates and increasing chances of global recession. Odds beginning to favor hard landings.
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