Grain Calls Mixed

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grain calls are mixed. SH is near 12.98. SMH is near 386.0. BOH is near 48.18. CH is near 4.71. WH is near 6.28. KWH is near 6.43. MWH is near 7.23. US Dollar, Crude and Gold are higher after Iran moved a warship into the Red Sea. US stocks are lower. China also announced higher 2024 crude oil import quotas.

Rural farm scene

CH ended 2023 near 4.71. Dry Brazil has seen needed rains. Ukraine vessel exports are on the increase. 2024 US corn stocks will increase. China US imports or lack of will be key. As 2023 ended, funds are large short corn futures. Index funds have reduced their net long. Cattle 2023 range 162-187 and near lows. Hogs range 68-104.95 and near lows. One crop scout continues to est Brazil corn crop at 117 mmt vs USDA 129 and 137 ly. He also est Argentina at 53 mmt vs USDA 55 and 34 ly. Total is down 1 mmt vs last year and down 14 mmt vs USDA.

SH dropped below 13.00. Global crush is forecasted to increase which could be negative soymeal. US Biodiesel demand should increase but what will be feed stock? US Nov crush is est near 199.7 mil bu vs Oct record of 201.4 and 189.6 ly. Trade is worried that China may be done buying US soybeans for now. There is also talk China may be diversifying away from soymeal use. As 2023 ends, funds are only a small soybean long and on the decline, long less soymeal than expected and short more soyoil than expected. Needed rains in Brazil and continued favorable Argentina weather has weighed on soybean complex futures prices. One crop scout lowered his est Brazil soybean crop to 151 mmt vs USDA 161 and 160 ly. He also est Argentina at 50 mmt vs USDA 48 and 25 ly. Total is up 16 mmt vs last year but down 8 mmt vs USDA.

WH has been in a 6.00-6.50 range since September. US is mostly warm and dry while Black Sea supply could grow.US LH Jan and Feb weather could remain dry but turn colder. Europe weather could also see same pattern. Ukraine is seeing increase in vessel movement. Most doubt Ukraine war will end in 2024. As 2023 ends, Funds remain short wheat futures. Australia and Argentina supplies are down but will be offering exports Q1. Destination markets hope lower rates will increase buying power. China wheat import demand will also be watched.

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now