Grain Calls Are Mixed to Lower
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grain calls are mixed to lower. S&P 500 has found some resistance near 4,800. Crude is struggling at $75.
Last week, CH made a new low. CH now in 4.68-4.80 range. Trade needs spark like higher demand for US export to test resistance. Dry Brazil areas are getting needed rains. Potential large Argentina 2024 crop could continue to weigh on corn values. One crop watcher est of Brazil corn crop at 117 mmt. USDA is 129. Same watcher est Argentina crop at 53 mmt vs USDA 55. One group increased US 2023/24 carryout to 2,290 mil bu vs USDA 2,130 due to higher crop. Commercial short has SF-SH at only -7.
Dry Brazil areas are getting needed rains. Potential large Argentina 2024 crop continues to weigh on soymeal values. One crop watcher lowered his est of Brazil soybean crop 2 mmt to 153. USDA is 161. Same watcher est Argentina crop at 50 mmt vs USDA 48. One group increased US 2023/24 carryout to 262 mil bu vs USDA 245 due to higher crop. Trade is worried that China may be done buying US soybeans for now. Dalian soybeans, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices ended slightly higher.
Push pull wheat futures trade continues. WH has been in a 6.00-6.50 range since September. One group est US 2024 wheat crop at 1,921 mil bu vs 1,812 ly. They also est 2024/25 exports at 825 vs 725 ly. Still all this increased US wheat carryout to 744 mil bu vs 659 this year. World wheat buying is increasing but most of the wheat is being sourced from Russia. Recent China buying US SRW has KWH only +13 WH.
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