Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
GOLD AND SILVER
Most major central banks are likely to keep their accommodation for longer, which is a longer-term bullish influence for the precious metals.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. equity futures rebounded following Thursday’s selloff as investors digested a proposal for higher capital gains taxes.
The 8:45 central time April PMI composite index is expected to be 59.5 and the 9:00 March new home sales report is anticipated to be 887,000.
The long term outlook for stock index futures remains positive.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index declined to near a seven-week low and is on track for its third consecutive weekly loss as Treasury yields remain below recent highs. News of a proposed increase in taxes on capital gains in the U.S. put additional pressure on the greenback.
The euro currency is higher after a euro zone composite PMI increased to 53.7 in April from 53.2 in March and above the market consensus of 52.8. This latest reading signaled the fastest rate of increase in private sector activity since last July.
The British pound is higher and not far from a seven-week high. The U.K. services PMI advanced to 60.1 in April 2021 from 56.3 in the previous month and easily beat the market consensus of 59.0. The latest reading indicated the steepest pace of expansion in service activity since August 2014.
The Japanese yen traded at a seven-week high against the U.S. dollar on safe haven flows. In addition, the yen was supported by news that the au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI was up to 53.3 in April, which is the third straight month of growth in factory activity and the fastest rate since April 2018.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
There are no major Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today.
Futures are firm on the belief that a proposal for higher capital gains taxes could slow growth in the U.S. economy.
In my minority view, I am seeing indications that global economic growth may not be as strong as many analysts are predicting.
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