Written Commentary
Ag Market View for June 18.2026
June 18, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.03 ½ – $.05 ½ lower today while spreads weakened. Support for July-26 is at $4.05, a gap on the weekly chart from last Sept-26. Resistance is at $4.37. Yesterday’s EIA data showed ethanol production slipped to 324 mil. gallons last week, slightly below expectations while still below the pace needed to reach to revised USDA corn usage forecast. Exports sales at 66 mil. bu., old and new crop combined, were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 3.304 bil. bu. are up 26% YOY vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 16%. Commitments represent 99% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 93%. Noted buyers were Japan – 18 mil., Mexico – 16 mil. and Spain with 10 mil. bu. In addition, the USDA announced a flash sale of 286k mt (11 mil. bu.) to Mexico. New crop sales are up to 183 mil. bu., a 4-year high while up 41% YOY. US corn acres in drought fell 1% to 23%, a 9-month low.
SOYBEANS
Lower trade across the complex with beans down $.06-$.09, meal was down $3-$4 while oil was off over 135-185 points however settled well off session los. July-26 beans closed near the mid-point of this week’s range. July-26 meal dipped below $300 ton for the first time since early Feb-26. July-26 oil held support near its 100-day MA near $.68 lb., which is also a 38% Fib. Retracement. Crush margins continue to plunge, falling another $.19 to $3.06 ½ bu. while bean oil PV is down to 53.6%. Pres. Trump signed the 14-point memorandum of understanding electronically at a State dinner this evening in France. The MOU established a 60 day ceasefire that will open the Straits of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting their blockade on Iranian ports. The 60-day window enables time to negotiate a permanent peace agreement. Spot US FOB offers at the Gulf are back to a slight premium over Brazil, while at a 5-10 cent discount for Sept/Oct offers. Soybean exports at 26.5 mil. were at the high end of expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.491 bil. are down 17% from YA vs. the revised USDA forecast of down 20%. New crop commitments jumped to 49 mil. bu. while still historically low, they are a 3-year high and up 12% YOY. The USDA also announced flash sales of 120k mt (4.4 mil. bu.) to unknown and 132k mt (4.8 mil.) to China. If the US is to sell 25 mmt of soybeans to China ahead of Brazil’s harvest early next year, weekly sales will need to average nearly 1 mmt. Meal sales at 404k tons were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 16.63 mmt are up 17% YOY vs. the USDA forecast of up 9.5%. Oil sales at 5 mil. lbs bring commitments to 828 mil. lbs. down 64% vs. the revised USDA forecast of down 58%. Soybean acres in drought also fell 1% to 23%, a 9-month low.
WHEAT
Prices range from $.02 ½ lower in MIAX to $.08 ½ lower in CGO and KC, will all 3 classes unable to hold early strength. CGO July-26 peaked at its 50-day MA at $6.18 ¼. KC July-26 consolidated between its 50 and 100-day MA’s. MIAX July-26 failed after trading into a 2-week high. Heavy rain across the central and southern Midwest threaten the quality of the SRW crop while also delaying early harvest. Speculative traders had been net buyers in CGO wheat the past 4 sessions having bought another 7k contracts yesterday, reducing their short position to 65k contracts. Certainly appear to be back in a selling mood today. Yesterday wire services reported Algeria bought between 800-850k mt of milling wheat between $264-$265/mt CF for Aug-26 shipment. The grain is likely sourced from the Black Sea and EU. Export sales at 15 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 183 mil. bu. are down 21% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. Commitments represent 24% of the USDA forecast, vs. the historical average of 22%.
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