Global Sugar Surplus in 2025/26

SUGAR

Brazil government data showed the nation exported 1.56 million metric tons of sugar in April, down from 1.89 million for the same period a year ago. In an update released yesterday, S&P Global had a world sugar supply/demand surplus of 1.92 million tons for 2025/26. They noted that dry conditions in Brazil in May could accelerate harvest and boost the sugar mix. Earlier this week the USDA Foreign Ag Service put India’s 2025/26 sugar production at 35.25 million metric tons, up from 28.00 million in 2024/25 and the highest since 2022/23. However, the 2024/25 production was revised down from 35.50 million in the USDA’s official update in November. Egypt’s supply minister said yesterday that his nation’s strategic reserves of sugar are sufficient for 14.1 months.

COFFEE

Brazilian green coffee exports totaled 173,055 metric tons in April, down from 254,108 for the same period last year, according to government data. The weather maps showed no rainfall in Brazilian coffee areas for the last 24 hours, and World Weather Service expects little in the next 10 days. Temperatures  are expected to be near to above normal. This should help move harvest along. Brazil’s CONAB this week put their nation’s 2025 coffee output at 55.7 million bags, up 7.5% from their January estimate and 2.7% higher than the 2024 crop, thanks primarily to a stronger conilon (robusta) crop. The arabica crop is expected to come in around 37 million bags, which would be down 6.6% from last year but still up from the January forecast of 34.7 million bags. Reuters reported that robusta coffee supplies in major Asian producers remained thin this week, as farmers in Vietnam had sold most of their stocks while harvest in Indonesia had not started yet. Uganda’s National Union of Coffee Agribusinesses and Farm Enterprises expects that nation’s coffee exports for 2024/25 (to September 30) to reach 8 million bags, a 27% increase from 2023/24. They credited maturing trees on newly planted acreage. Uganda produces mostly robusta beans and is Africa’s largest coffee exporter. ICE certified stocks increased by 6,088 bags yesterday to 844,473, their highest since February 13. Stocks have increased in .30,805 bags in the past five sessions.

COCOA

July Cocoa traded up to the 100-day moving average resistance overnight, as the market continued to consolidate inside a  two week range. Recent improvements in the West African outlook have been offset by better than expected grind data during the first quarter of the year. World Weather Service said rain diminished in West Africa earlier this week, but more rain is expected to emerge over the next week. The overnight maps showed active rains across Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest cocoa producers in the world. This should support better pod growth. ICE certified stocks increased by 6,864 bags yesterday to 2.107 million, the highest since September 27. Stocks have increased for 15 sessions straight.

COTTON

After failing to take out the April highs, July Cotton reversed lower yesterday, and the market is near unchanged this morning. Reports that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with China’s top economic official Saturday May 10 in Switzerland offered a glimmer of hope that the over a trade war between the two nations have moved closer to resolution. The fact that the market reacted so positively to the news of the meeting suggests a more positive outlook on demand. However, the market also recognized that this was only a first step. This morning’s export sales report could offer some report if they come in strong. Last week’s report showed net sales of 141,275 bales (current and new crop combined) for the week ending April 24, down from 142,005 the previous week and the lowest since April 3. Cumulative sales for 2024.25 had reached 107% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 106% for this point in the marketing year. This suggests that the USDA will have little reason to change its forecast for 2024/25 in next Monday’s WASDE report. This will also be the first WASDE report to include 2025/26 forecasts. A Bloomberg survey has an average trade expectation for US 2025/26 cotton production at 14.22 million bales (range 12.90-16.35), which would be down from 14.41 million for 2024/25. Exports are expected to come in at 11.56 million (range 9.90-14.30) versus 10.9 million in 2024/25, and ending stocks are expected at 5.35 million (range 4.00-7.20 million) versus 5.00 million last year. World 2025/26 production is expected to come in at 118.36 million bales versus 120.89 last year, and consumption is expected at 116.56 million bales versus 116.02 million in 2024/25. This would put ending stocks at 78.11 million bales versus 78.86 million last year.

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