by ADMIS Research Team
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 4 cents, HRW down 4; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 4, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 20 points.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 52 cents; HRW down 30; HRS down 41; Corn is down 31 cents; Soybeans down 47; Soymeal down $29.00, and; Soyoil down 95 points; Crushing margins are down 29 cents, Oilshare up 1 cent.
For the year, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 13 cents; HRW down 25; HRS down 58; Corn is down 68 cents; Soybeans down 46; Soymeal down $22.00, and; Soyoil down 145 points; Crushing margins are down 20 cents, Oilshare unchanged at 31%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 64 yuan in Soybeans, down 18 in Corn, up 2 in Soymeal, up 24 in Soyoil, and up 62 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 53 ringgit at 2,084 (basis July) at midsession tracing crude and soyoil gains.
U.S. Weather Forecast
A weather disturbance is expected to promote heavier rain with greater coverage in the Northern Plains Sunday into Tuesday; some pockets of wet snow may also occur with this event
Last night’s GFS model run still suggested no meaningful rainfall in southwestern Hard Red Winter Wheat areas through next Wednesday such as the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles; high temperatures will also be in the 90s and lower 100s Fahrenheit in this part of the region Friday, Monday, and possibly this Saturday
The 6 to 10 day Midwest maps looks to maintain a cool to dry bias
South America Weather Forecast
Meaningful rainfall was still suggested in last night’s GFS model run for Brazil’s second season corn and cotton production areas late Monday into next Wednesday; however, there was a decrease of moisture in Sao Paulo
A drier weather pattern will continue through the next two weeks for Argentina and conditions for harvesting of summer crops will steadily improve
Black Sea/Europe region
The first week to ten days will still bring periodic showers to much of the European Continent and western portions of the CIS; the moisture will help ease dryness in many areas, but it will be erratically distributed benefiting some areas far more than others; the need for additional rain will continue in many areas, including Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 5,000 Corn; net bought 4,000 contracts of Soybeans; were net even in Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 176,000 Corn; net short 6,000 in Soybeans; net short 10,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 10,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 420 contracts; HRW Wheat down 770; Corn down 16,000; Soybeans down 4,900 contracts; Soymeal down 1,900 lots, and; Soyoil down 5,200.
Deliveries were 32 Soymeal; 1,466 Soyoil; 7 Rice; 223 Corn; 9 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; ZERO SRW, and; 238 HRS.
There were changes in registrations (Corn up 220, Soyoil up 41)—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 223; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 2,709 lots; Soymeal 564; Rice 267; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 821 contracts.
TODAY—FND FOR MAY FUTURES—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—
U.S. ethanol production for the week ended April 24th averaged 537,000 barrels per day (down 4.6% versus a week ago, down 47.6% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 26.3 mil barrels (down 4.9% a week ago, up 16.1% versus last year); corn use for the week was 52.9 mil bu (55.6 mil last week) and versus the 95.5 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections.
U.S. fuel ethanol production hit another record low last week, but stocks came off their record highs, their first decline in five weeks, a sign that demand is slowly coming back and that production has either bottomed or is very close to doing so; global fuel consumption has fallen sharply ever since the coronavirus pandemic escalated in mid-March, sending oil prices into a tailspin; this has delivered an unprecedented blow to U.S. corn demand, as fuel ethanol production accounts for roughly 40% of annual use.
The Trump administration has tightened restrictions on the use of ethanol in hand sanitizer, forcing suppliers of the corn-based alcohol to halt their sales at a time of soaring demand; the crackdown is meant to protect consumers from potentially dangerous impurities in hand sanitizer but will likely worsen shortages of the product at a time households, hospitals and nursing homes need it to fight the coronavirus outbreak
—The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on April 15 issued limits on certain chemicals permitted in alcohol-based hand sanitizer, updating a temporary guidance it adopted last month as the health crisis deepened and more manufacturers registered to produce hand sanitizer
—Since then, the FDA has notified several ethanol companies saying their product does not meet safety standards, forcing them to halt production and cancel supply agreements; in one case, the FDA said it had found significant levels of the carcinogen acetaldehyde in ethanol supplied by a company for use in hand sanitizer
CME Group announces new trading limits for grain, oilseed and lumber futures. The CME Group announced the new limits will take effect for the trade date May 1 and remain in effect until the first trading day in November 2020; Wheat is the only contract that will see a change
—Corn will be 25 cents per bushel (40 cents for the expanded limit)
—Soybeans will be 60 cents per bushel (90 cents expanded)
—Soybean meal will be $20 per ton ($30 expanded)
—Soyoil will be two cents per pound (3 cents expanded)
—Wheat will be 40 cents per bushel (60 cents expanded), a five-cent increase from current limits
The APK-Inform agriculture consultancy revised down its forecast for Ukraine’s 2020 grain harvest to 68.6 million tons from a previous estimate of 72.2 million tons, citing poor weather
—Cut its wheat harvest outlook to 24.5 million tons from 26.7 million and reduced the corn crop forecast to 35.1 million tons from 36 million tons
—Ukraine harvested a record 75 million tons of grain in 2019
—Ukraine’s grain exports have reached a record 50.05 million tons so far in the 2019/20 season that began last July, up around 19% year on year, the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture said
—The exported volume included almost 19 million tons of wheat, 26.2 million tons of corn and 4.7 million tons of barley
—The Deputy Minister said last month Ukraine could export a record 52-55 million tons of grain this season
South Africa will likely harvest 35% more maize in 2020 boosted by higher yields in the Free State and Mpumalanga, the government’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said
—Giving its third production forecast for the 2020 crop, the CEC estimated production at 15.221 million tons, compared with 11.275 million tons harvested in the previous year when dry conditions affected plantings
—The estimate is also 3% higher than the CEC’s March estimate of 14.809 million tons
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for April rose 3.8 percent to 1,174,285 tons from 1,131,283 tons shipped during March, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
—Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for April rose 1.1 percent to 1,168,647 tons from 1,156,342 tons shipped during March, according to independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia
Palm oil exports from Malaysia plunged 41.7% during the first month of a partial lockdown to contain the coronavirus, its plantation industries and commodities minister said
—Crude palm oil and refined palm oil exports fell 636,847 tons during the March 18-April 14 period to 890,331 tons from the year before
—Exports of palm oil products fell 34.8%, or 793,257 tons, to 1.49 million tons during the same period
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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