Written Commentary
Markets Await Strait News and Labor Data
August 6, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.05 lower while spreads were mixed and little changed. Sept-26 and Dec-26 both fell to fresh 2-week lows. Prices plunged across the Ag. space as healthy rains spread across the central and N. Midwest. Old crop exports are up 24% YOY vs. the USDA forecast up 16%. I look for the USDA to raise their old crop export forecast another 25-50 mil. in the Aug-26 WASDE. New crop commitments have reached 340 mil. bu. matching YA while the highest in 5 years. The BAGE held their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 64 mmt, vs. the USDA 63 mmt est. Harvest advanced only 3% in the past week to 70%. Ukraine’s Grain Association raised their 2026 production forecast to 32.1 mmt, up 3.2% YOY and is well above the USDA est. of 30 mmt. Senator John Boozman (R-Ark.), Chair of the Senate Ag. committee stated the new farm bill will include legislation allowing the voluntary year-round sale of E-15. While a favorable US weather outlook for now will limit upside price potential, I expect Dec-26 will find support above $4.50. Despite this week’s weakness, Dec-26 closed the month up $.28 bu., its best performance for the month since 2012. December corn closed higher in the month of July only 3 of the past 10 years.
SOYBEANS
Prices were slightly lower across the complex with beans down $.02-$.04, meal was $1-$3 lower while oil was off 30-50 points. Bean and oil spreads were mixed while meal spreads firmed. Still no deliveries against Aug-26 meal while bean deliveries slipped to 137 contracts while oil was down to 322. Both Sept-26 and Nov-26 soybeans traded to their lowest levels in a month. Crush margins slipped $.04 to $2.74 ½ bu. with bean oil PV holding at 52.3%. China’s Sinograin sold 2/3rd’s of the 501k mt of soybeans in today’s auction as they continue to clear storage space for incoming US shipments. StoneX is forecasting US soybean production at 4.470 bil. bu. with an average yield of 53 bpa, in line with the USDA estimate. There were no flash sales reported today while US Gulf FOB offers rest $.15-$.30 below Brazilian offers out to Nov-26. Census exports in June at 70 mil. bu. was above implied inspections and up 28% YOY. YTD sales at 1.412 bil. bu. are down 19% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 20%. Sales in July and Aug. need to reach 108 mil. bu. to reach the USDA forecast, vs. 148 mil. YA. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 36-70 mil. bu. of soybeans, 200-500k tons of meal and -10-10k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.01 lower to $.07 higher with all 3 classes experiencing 2-sided trade. CGO Sept-26 was up $.03 ¾ at $6.42 ¼ as the 100-day MA at $6.32 continues to provide support. KC Sept-26 was $.06 ½ higher at $7.13 ½, while MIAX Sept-26 was down $.01 at $6.83 ½. FESCO announced they will no longer accept shipping requests via the Black Sea after one of their vessel’s was sunk by a Ukrainian drone strike this past weekend. Meanwhile Russia’s Defense Minister announced they attacked 3 Black Sea ports that they claimed were supporting Ukrainian military interests. It’s also been reported at least 17 people were killed in Kiev by Russian missile and drone attacks overnight. IKAR reports Russian wheat exports slipped to 1.6-1.8 mmt in July, down 17-24% from YA. They expect Aug-26 shipments to reach only 2.5-3 mmt, vs. 5.76 mmt YA. Algeria reportedly bought between 300-700k mt of wheat for Sept/Oct shipment. It’s reported they paid $289-$290/mt CF. US census exports in June at 54.5 mil. bu. were down 14% YOY. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range between 9-16 mil. bu.
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