Global Ag News for Oct 15th
TODAY – EXPORT SALES, COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS, NOPA CRUSH
Wheat prices overnight are up 10 in SRW, up 11 1/4 in HRW, up 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans up 10 1/4; Soymeal up $0.31; Soyoil up 0.65.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, up 4 3/4 in HRW, up 20 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/2; Soybeans down 26 1/2; Soymeal down $0.15; Soyoil down 0.42.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 10 1/2 in HRW, up 54 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 13 3/4; Soybeans down 39 1/2; Soymeal down $11.50; Soyoil up 2.40.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 75 yuan ; Soymeal up 27; Soyoil up 52; Palm oil down 22; Corn up 19 — Malasyian Palm is up 88. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 88 ringgit (+1.80%) at 4965 bouncing back from its worst daily loss in almost four weeks as higher petroleum prices and firm soybean oil futures increased the appeal of the tropical oil as an alternative, especially in biofuel.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Monday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday. East: Scattered showers through early Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday.
The player sheet for Oct. 14 had funds: net buyers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,500 corn, buyers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.
There were changes in registrations (-15 Soyoil). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 305 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,273 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 14 were: SRW Wheat up 1,327 contracts, HRW Wheat up 84, Corn up 509, Soybeans down 8,481, Soymeal up 3,644, Soyoil up 5,666.
- SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
- CORN PURCHASE: Turkish grain board TMO provisionally bought 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender on Thursday
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture bought 119,512 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia on Thursday in a regular tender.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: A United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government
- FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it would seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2022, and arrive in Japan by Feb. 24. Both were sought via a simultaneous buy-and-sell (SBS) auction that was to be held on Oct. 13.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report
Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Oct. 7.
- Corn est. range 700k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,100k
- Soybean est. range 600k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,015k
CROP SURVEY: U.S. September Soybean Crush Seen at 155.2M Bushels
Projections are based on a survey of six analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on Oct. 13-14.
- Soybean crush seen 3.9% lower vs September of last year, and a decline of 2.2% vs a month ago
- Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.628b lbs vs 1.433b a year earlier
Fertilizer Spike May Shift 3M U.S. Acres of Corn to Soy: Platts
Soaring fertilizer prices could lead farmers to switch about 3 million acres of corn to soybeans, according to Patricia Luis-Manso, head of agriculture and biofuels analytics for S&P Global Platts.
- NOTE: Soybeans, a widely used ingredient in animal feed and renewable diesel, are less fertilizer intensive than corn
- U.S. is the world’s biggest corn producer
Argentine Corn Planted Estimate Oct. 14: Exchange
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.
- Corn 2021-22 planting 23.2% complete vs 21.1% in the previous week
- Planting est. maintained at 7.1m ha
French Wheat, Barley Planting Ahead of Last Year’s Pace: AgriMer
Soft-wheat planting was 13% complete in France as of Oct. 11, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.
- Compares with 4% the prior week and 11% last year
- Winter-barley planting was 24% complete
- Compares with 9% the prior week and 15% last year
- French corn crop was 15% harvested
- Compares with 7% the prior week and 62% at the same time last year
French Rouen Grain Exports Up Fivefold in Week to Oct. 13: Port
Grain shipments from France’s Rouen port totaled 323,713 tons in the week to Oct. 13, compared with 55,300 tons a week earlier, according to an emailed report.
Loadings by destination (in tons):
- Soft wheat
- China 130,940
- Algeria 31,500
- Feed barley
- China 83,973
- Feed wheat
- Philippines 45,100
- Malting barley
- Colombia 28,000
- Germany 4,200
China to start fresh round of wheat auctions from state reserves – trade center
China will sell 1 million tonnes of wheat at auction from the state reserves on Oct. 20, the National Grain Trade Center said in a notice on Friday.
The announcement marks the start of a fresh round of wheat auctions from the state stockpile this year following a rise in prices of the grain.
China last sold wheat from its reserves in May. Feed producers stepped up purchases of the grain – usually used for food – to replace corn in animal feed as prices of the latter soared.
Chinese corn gets cheaper, regains lost share from wheat in feed rations
Corn prices in China’s key Shandong hub have fallen to the same levels as wheat this week, for the first time in a year, leading some feed producers to switch back to using more of the yellow grain in animal feed rations, traders and analysts said.
Corn prices in key animal-feeding hubs such as Shandong province had been trading at a rare sustained premium to wheat for most of the past year. That’s because corn production hiccups and a drawdown in stocks last year led to a slide in supply that pushed domestic prices to record highs. Costly corn in turn spurred industrial corn users to look for alternatives, including feed lots that switched to using record volumes of feed-grade wheat. However, with local corn prices now weakening as the 2021 harvest rolls on, wheat’s price advantage relative to corn has now all but disappeared.
Russian wheat exports down 1.6% in January-August, says customs service – ITAR-TASS World News
Russia’s exports of wheat and meslin fell by 1.6% year-on-year in January-August 2021 to 19.316 mln tonnes, the Federal Customs Service reported on Monday. In money terms, exports of wheat and meslin rose by 15% in the reporting period to $4.908 bln. In August, wheat exports soared 3.8 times month-on-month in physical terms to 5.2 mln tonnes, and by 3.9 times in money terms to $1.317 bln. Exports of vegetable oil went up by 49.8% in January-August 2021 in value terms to $2.901 bln, and fell by 15.5% in physical terms to 2.304 mln, the service said.
Russian Wheat-Export Tax to Rise to $61.30/Ton for Next Week
Russia’s wheat export customs duty will increase to $61.30/ton next week, from $58.70, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday on its website.
NOTE: The rates are set weekly and take effect three working days after publication
Thorny U.S.-Russia Ties Leaves USDA in Cold on Crop Intelligence
The U.S. Department of Agriculture “no longer has staff in Russia after the U.S diplomatic presence was sharply reduced as of Aug. 1,” said Patrick Packnett, deputy administrator of global market analysis for USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service.
- USDA will resume reporting out of Russia, the world’s top wheat shipper, once ties have been restored, Packnett said Wednesday during a public agency meeting
- USDA is exploring ways to get “good” intelligence for ongoing supply-and-demand estimates; the agency will continue to monitor satellite and weather data: Packnett
- The lack of a U.S. attache is a “significant development” for the grains market, Farm Futures analyst Jacqueline Holland said in a note Thursday
- “Reduced visibility could increase error in USDA’s estimates,” she said
Malaysia Oct. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports -18.37% M/m: Intertek
Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 18.37% m/m during Oct. 1-15, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Malaysia’s Oct 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 723,561 Tons: AmSpec
Shipments fall 11.1% m/m from a revised 813,555 tons exported during Sept. 1-15, according to AmSpec Agri on Friday.
Czech 2021 grain harvest seen at 7.23 mln tonnes -stats office
The Czech Republic’s 2021 grain harvest was seen at 7.23 million tonnes in September, lower by 0.2% compared to an estimate made in August, data from the Czech Statistics Bureau (CSU) showed on Friday.
- Last year, the grain harvest totalled 7.29 million tones.
- The following forecasts are based on data collected as of Sept. 15.
Fertilizer Price Shock Threatens Brazil’s Biggest Corn Crop
- Farmers may cut nutrients amid soaring prices, supply snags
- Fertilizer surge may limit corn yields, fueling food inflation
Brazilian farmer Antonio Carlos Jacobsen usually buys fertilizer a few weeks before planting his corn fields. Soaring fertilizer prices are pushing him to move up purchases for the March seeding — although it may already be too late.
Jacobsen’s predicament isn’t unique among grain growers in this South American nation, and the impacts may reverberate beyond Brazil’s borders. The agricultural superpower is the world’s top exporter of soybeans, sugar and coffee and No. 2 supplier of corn, and it needs to buy around 80% of its fertilizer requirements. Soaring fertilizer prices and tight supplies may end up limiting Brazil’s corn yields in the coming year.
Corn is loaded into a grain storage bag during a harvest at a farm in Correntina, Bahia state, Brazil, on Sept. 20.
Brazilian farmers plant their biggest corn crop — known as “safrinha” — in the first quarter, just after the soybean harvest. That second corn crop could help ease inflationary pressures in the country, where consumer prices are rising at the fastest pace in more than five years. It could also bolster global supplies, with Brazilian exports providing relief to higher corn prices. Used as feed, costly corn drives up meat prices worldwide.
U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 20% Last Week: USDA
Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers increased in the week ending Oct. 9 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
- Barge shipments of corn fell 9% from the previous week
- Soybean shipments up 85% w/w
U.S. Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Oct. 12: USDA
- Winter wheat crops in areas of moderate to intense drought up a percentage point from the previous week to 42%
- Corn and soybean crop areas both decreased drought exposure in the week
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.