Global Ag News for Oct 10.22


U.S. reports highly lethal bird flu in Arkansas chickens

A highly lethal form of avian flu infected a commercial breeding flock of chickens in Arkansas, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Friday.

The infection widens an outbreak of the disease that began in early 2022 to the nation’s third biggest state for producing chickens for meat, according to USDA data.


Wheat prices overnight are up 38 1/4 in SRW, up 32 3/4 in HRW, up 25 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7 3/4; Soybeans up 25 3/4; Soymeal up $0.72; Soyoil up 0.40.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, up 12 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/4; Soybeans up 14; Soymeal up $0.08; Soyoil up 3.46.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 3 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, up 11 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/2; Soybeans up 28; Soymeal up $4.90; Soyoil up 5.44.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 19% in SRW, up 25% in HRW, up 1% in HRS; Corn is up 16%; Soybeans up 4%; Soymeal down -2%; Soyoil up 24%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans down 74 yuan on the first day of trading after their week long holiday; Soymeal up 8; Soyoil up 290; Palm oil up 440; Corn up 11 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 137 ringgit (+3.70%) at 3837.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 3,084 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 5 Soybeans; 39 Soyoil; 247 Soymeal; 40 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 7 were: SRW Wheat up 3,414 contracts, HRW Wheat up 343, Corn up 10,464, Soybeans up 231, Soymeal down 6,139, Soyoil down 2,725.

Northern Plains Forecast: It was dry over the weekend with above-normal temperatures, favorable for harvest progress after last week’s rains and cold temperatures. Another cold front will swing quickly through the region on Tuesday with some isolated showers. A stronger cold front will move through this coming weekend with more scattered showers and another round of much colder air. Showers should be rather light for the most part, as harvest continues to progress well.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers fell across west Texas and parts of Oklahoma over the weekend, helping some areas fill soils for better winter wheat establishment. The showers will shift northeast early this week. A pair of cold fronts will move through the region afterward, with some isolated showers as well. Precipitation likely will be light enough that it will not delay harvest for too many areas. A stronger cold front coming through this coming weekend may have more widespread and heavier showers, which could be welcome to those with winter wheat.

Western Midwest Forecast: Widespread frosts and freezes occurred over the weekend, producing killing frosts for many areas. Warmer air is moving through early this week but another pair strong cold fronts will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers and a burst of colder air. Another strong cold front will move through this coming weekend with a much colder shot of air. Lake-effect snows may develop behind that front going into next week. Harvest may see some delays in areas that receive a couple of these more moderate showers, but harvest should continue to progress over the next week.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Scattered showers developed over the weekend with another cold front moving into the country. The front will be mostly stalled out with continuing showers this week. Showers will start to dry up over southern areas this coming weekend while still going across central areas of the country. Southern areas have had good rainfall so far this season and can withstand a period of dryness, as long as it is not too long. Otherwise, conditions are still good for corn and soybean planting and establishment.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: A few showers went through Buenos Aires over the weekend but were light. Dry conditions continue for most areas this week, with outside chances of a few light showers in a couple of spots. Conditions continue to be poor for winter wheat development and corn planting. Dryness could start to have a delaying effect to soybean planting, which starts up in the next couple of weeks.

The player sheet for Oct. 7 had funds: net buyers of 750 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and unchanged soy oil.


  • SOYMEAL SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased an estimated 60,000 tonnes of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in an international tender on Friday, European traders said.
  • SOYMEAL SALE: South Korean importer groups the Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) and Korea Feed Association (KFA) jointly purchased about 60,000 tonnes of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal on Friday without international tenders being issued, European traders said.
  • DURUM SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased durum wheat in a tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said on Friday.


  • WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Sunday.
  • WHEAT TENDER: The World Food Programme, a United Nations agency, has issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tonnes of milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Sept. 28 with an award expected on Sept. 30.
  • BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import a total of 495,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Oct. 11, they said.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan is seeking 120,000 tonnes of wheat in an international purchasing tender with a deadline for offers on Oct. 11, a government source told Reuters.
  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 90,100 tonnes of rice sourced from the United States, Vietnam and other origins, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is Oct. 19, they said.


CFTC Money Managers’ Commodity Positions for Oct. 4

Huge Barge Backup Eases on Mississippi, Freeing Tons of Cargo

  • Two closures have reopened with restrictions, Coast Guard says
  • Blockages forced companies to find other methods to move goods

A backup of more than 2,000 boats and barges on the Mississippi River is being cleared as two closures along the waterway reopened on Sunday.

Low water levels had halted commercial shipments of commodities, including recently harvested corn and soybeans, in the latest supply chain snarl that came in the middle of the autumn harvest and amid prolonged local drought.

By Sunday, the river had reopened at two choke points: near Stack Island, Mississippi, and near Memphis, Tennessee, the US Coast Guard said.

Currently, there is no line of vessels near Memphis, though there are restrictions there to one-way traffic. In Mississippi, the lines of barges and vessels north and south is down to fewer than 900, the Coast Guard said.

On Friday, the backup along the river stood at more than 2,000 at various points. The US Army Corps of Engineers has been dredging near Stack Island to make water levels deeper.

Mississippi Barge Backup Stalls Millions of Tons of Cargo

With water levels low along the Mississippi’s critical shipping lanes, companies have been scrambling to find alternate ways to move everything from metals to fertilizers to agriculture products. This has raised costs and made US cargoes more expensive when food inflation is already at its highest level in four decades.

The drying Mississippi echoes logistics headaches around the world this summer, including on the Rhine River, in what scientists say is a Northern Hemisphere drought worsened considerably by climate change.

In 2012, the Great Plains drought led to $35 billion in losses for the US, including closing the river at least three times. In 2020, the total value of domestic commerce that moved from Minneapolis to the mouth of the river was almost $70 billion, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers.

Ukraine Grain Ships Urged to Prepare for Black Sea Inspections

International monitors overseeing Ukrainian grain shipping in the Black Sea urged vessel owners and captains to ensure crews are prepared for inspections to avoid unnecessary delays.

  • In more than 50 cases, inspections were held up “due to the lack of readiness of the vessel,” the Joint Coordination Centre said in a statement on Friday
    • Waiting times at Istanbul have increased to an average of nine days even as the JCC added more inspection teams
  • “The JCC hopes that this congestion will soon be eased with the cooperation of the shipping industry, and it is committed to take all measures within its capacity to continue enabling the smooth and safe movements of vessels in and out of the Ukrainian ports in accordance with the Initiative”
  • Approximately 600 voyages to and from Ukrainian ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative have gone off without incident: statement.
  • The vessels that have left Ukraine carried 6.4 million metric tons of grain and other agricultural produce
  • 120 vessels are still due for inspection in Turkish waters: JCC

Brazil’s September corn exports out of Paranagua soar 1,138% – port authority

Brazilian corn exports out of the country’s second business port jumped 1,138% in September driven by strong demand and ample supplies, according to data compiled by the port authority on Friday.

The steep rise in shipments boosted corn exports out of the port of Paranagua to 3.430 million tonnes in the first nine months of the year, a 425% increase, the data showed.

Buyers turned to Brazil for corn amid issues affecting other major producers.

Poor weather in key agricultural regions from the United States to France and China is shrinking grain harvests and cutting global inventories.

This year, key producer Ukraine could harvest 25 to 27 million tonnes of corn, down from 42.1 million tonnes in 2021 as a reflection of the Russian invasion, which makes it difficult to grow crops.

Nationwide, Brazilian corn exporters shipped 318,800 tonnes on average per day through the fourth week of September, almost 135% above the daily average for September in 2021, government data showed.

Brazil’s corn production reached a record of 112.8 million tonnes in the 2021/2022 crop year and is poised to rise by 12.5% to almost 127 million tonnes in the 2022/2023 one, which is starting now.

Exports represented around 63.5% of all cargo moved at Parana state ports last month.

And while corn boosted overall export volumes from Paranagua, soymeal and soyoil exports also grew, according to the port authority.

“With the volumes of exported soybeans and bulk sugar falling this year, it was corn and soymeal that pushed up exports in the (agricultural) segment,” the port authority said.

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Volume exported is the lowest in 3 years; prices drop in BR

Soybean prices are fading steeply in Brazil this month, majorly influenced by the lower demand from abroad – the amount exported this year is currently lower than that in the three last years. Besides, the US dollar depreciation against the Real, estimates for a record output in Brazil and the progress of the harvesting in the United States increased pressure on quotations. Also, many sellers are trying to sell off the remaining of the 2021/22 season aiming to make cash flow.

Between September 29 and October 6, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá (PR) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná dropped by 4.5% and 4.5%, respectively, closing at BRL 178.40 per 60-kilo bag and BRL 173.57/bag on Thursday, 6. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices dropped by 3.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 4.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar decreased by a steep 3.6% in the last seven days, to BRL 5.204 on Thursday.

EXPORTS – According to Secex, Brazil exported 4.29 million tons of soybean in September, 27.8% less than that from August and 11% below that from Sept/21. This year (Jan. – Sept.), shipments have totaled 70.76 million tons, the lowest since the same period in 2019.

This decrease is majorly linked to lower demand from China, which reduced imports from Brazil by 37% between the two past months. However, higher purchases by Spain, Thailand and the Netherlands limited the decrease in the total exported last month.

Meanwhile, sowing of the new crop is in progress in the major producing regions. According to Conab, of the 42.89 million hectares expected to be sown in Brazil, 4.6% had been sown by October 1st. Although the recent rains have hampered activities, higher moisture is making agents more optimistic. Conab estimates the output in 2022/23 to total 152.35 million tons, 21.3% higher than that last season.

Brazil Soy Farmers’ Sales Are the Lowest in Six Years: Safras

Brazilian farmers sold in advance 18.8% of the 2022-23 crop, the lowest portion of the expected production since 2016, Luiz Fernando Roque, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, says by phone.

  • Figures from October 7 compare with 28.1% a year earlier, 29.6% in five-year-average
  • Farmers have low incentives to sell the new crop after years of high prices and margins, Roque says
    • “They don’t need to sell in advance to pay for planting costs”
  • High fertilizer prices and uncertainties on the supplies of crop nutrients earlier this year discouraged deals
  • Spot prices are higher than futures due to expectations of a record crop, which have been discouraging sales of the new crop
  • “Farmers are speculating on possible losses due to La Nina”
  • Sales of the 2021-22 crop are 86.1% done vs 89.2% a year ago

U.N. working to expand, extend for a year Ukraine Black Sea grain export deal

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and his team are working to expand and extend for a year a U.N.-brokered deal allowing Ukrainian Black Sea grain exports, which could expire in late November.

“We’re trying to remove the uncertainty to ensure that people are publicly saying that ‘yes, this will be extended a further year,’ but we’re not there yet,” said U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric, adding that U.N. officials are also working to facilitate Russian grain and fertilizer exports.

U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths and senior U.N. trade official Rebeca Grynspan are set to travel to Moscow in about a week to discuss both issues with senior Russian officials, Dujarric told reporters.

“The Secretary General and his team are engaged in intense contacts on these issues. Mr. Guterres and the team are working hard on having an expanded and extended Black Sea Grain Initiative,” he said. “They’re working actively to remove also the last obstacles to facilitate the export of Russian grain and fertilizer.”

Facilitating Russia’s food and fertilizer shipments is a central aspect of a package deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey on July 22 that also restarted Ukraine’s Black Sea grain and fertilizer shipments.

Russia has criticized the deal, complaining that its exports were still hindered. Moscow could object to extending the pact allowing Ukraine’s exports beyond late November.

The deal included ammonia – a key ingredient in nitrate fertilizer. A pipeline transporting ammonia from Russia’s Volga region to Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Pivdennyi (Yuzhny) was shut down when Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

The United Nations is now trying to broker a resumption of those ammonia exports.

Ukraine and Russia are both key global grain and fertilizer exporters. The United Nations said the agreement on Russian and Ukrainian exports is needed to tackle a global food crisis that it said had been worsened by Russia’s war in Ukraine, pushing some 47 million people into “acute hunger”.

Russia Wheat-Export Tax to Fall to 1,927 Rubles a Ton: Interfax

Russia’s wheat-export duty will decline to 1,927 rubles ($31.18) a ton next week from 2,119 rubles, Interfax reports, citing the agriculture ministry.

NOTE: Russia started calculating the export tax in rubles in July; previously, it was calculated in dollars, and the amount was markedly higher

Malaysia Oct. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports -13.41% M/m

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 13.41% m/m during Oct. 1-10, according to Intertek Testing Services.

  • Total exports for Oct. 1-10: 350,767 tons
  • Crude palm oil exports: 57,500 tons, 16.4% of total
  • China led all destinations for total exports: 95,340 tons

U.S. reports highly lethal bird flu in Arkansas chickens

A highly lethal form of avian flu infected a commercial breeding flock of chickens in Arkansas, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Friday.

The infection widens an outbreak of the disease that began in early 2022 to the nation’s third biggest state for producing chickens for meat, according to USDA data.

US Pork Production Up 3.2% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA

US federally inspected pork production rises to 543m pounds for the week ending Oct. 8 from 526m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

  • Hog slaughter up 2.9% from a week ago to 2.558m head
  • Beef production up 0.2% from a week ago, cattle slaughter unchanged at 664m head
  • For the year, beef production is 1.4% above last year’s level at this time, and pork is 2.5% below

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now