Global Ag News for Nov 2nd

Climate Change to Cut Quarter Off Corn Yields by 2030, NASA Says

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 1/4 in SRW, up 5 1/2 in HRW, up 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $0.24; Soyoil up 0.05.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 31 3/4 in SRW, up 26 1/4 in HRW, up 32 in HRS; Corn is up 12 3/4; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal down $0.11; Soyoil up 0.75. For the month to date wheat prices are up 31 3/4 in SRW, up 26 1/4 in HRW, up 32 in HRS; Corn is up 12 3/4; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal down $1.10; Soyoil up 0.75.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 10 yuan ; Soymeal down 38; Soyoil down 20; Palm oil down 44; Corn up 12. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 8 ringgit (+0.16%) at 4969.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,318 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 1 were: SRW Wheat up 5,324 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,959, Corn up 17,306, Soybeans up 3,932, Soymeal up 3,054, Soyoil up 2,513.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers south Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday. East: Isolated showers through Wednesday, mostly north. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers west Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for Nov. 1 had funds: net buyers of 14,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 13,500 corn, neutral soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday reported private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC,) on Monday said it bought 180,000 tonnes of Russian wheat in an international tender for shipment over Dec. 11-20.
• MILLING WHEAT SALE: Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organisation (SAGO), said on Monday it had bought about 1.268 million metric tonnes of milling wheat at an average price of $377.54 per tonne.
• SOYOIL, SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Sunday it was seeking soyoil and sunflower oil in an international purchasing tender for arrival Dec. 20 – Jan. 10.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Pakistan issued a new international tender to purchase around 90,000 tonnes of wheat after cancelling a previous tender seeking the same volume
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat

 USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn 74% Harvested, Soybeans 79% Harvested

Highlights from the report:

• Corn harvest 74% vs 66% last week, and 81% a year ago
• Soybeans harvested 79% vs 73% last week, and 86% a year ago
• Winter wheat 45% G/E vs 46% last week, and 43% a year ago
• Winter wheat planted 87% vs 80% last week, and 88% a year ago
• Winter wheat emerged 67% vs 55% last week, and 70% a year ago
• Cotton 62% G/E vs 64% last week, and 37% a year ago
• Cotton harvested 45% vs 35% last week, and 51% a year ago

U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol at 407.5M Bu in September

• Corn for ethanol was 1.3% higher than in September 2020
• DDGS production rose to 1.761m tons

U.S. Soybean Crushings at 164M Bushels in September: USDA

• Crushing 4% lower than same period last year
• Crude oil production 1.5% lower than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks up 17.5% y/y

U.S. Inspected 619k Tons of Corn for Export, 2.272m of Soybean

• Wheat: 115k tons vs 197k the previous wk, 313k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 2,272k tons vs 2,566k the previous wk, 2,391k a yr ago
• Corn: 619k tons vs 635k the previous wk, 741k a yr ago

U.S. Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 28

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 1.43m tons of the 2.27m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat
• Total wheat inspections dip to the lowest since 2003

China urges families to keep stores of daily needs ahead of winter

Chinese families should keep stores of daily necessities in case there is a sudden increase in demand, the Ministry of Commerce said, as the government strives to ensure sufficient food supplies heading into winter. A ministry statement late on Monday urged local authorities to do a good job in ensuring supply and stable prices.

Local authorities should carry out preparatory tasks such as purchasing vegetables that can be stored well in advance and also look to strengthen emergency delivery networks to guarantee smooth and efficient distribution channels, it said.

Unusually heavy rains in China have caused vegetable prices to surge, fuelling concern over food prices and worrying government officials in Beijing.

Climate Change to Cut Quarter Off Corn Yields by 2030, NASA Says

• International study sees corn yields down 24%, wheat up 17%
• Global agriculture faces ‘new climate reality’: lead author

Global corn yields could sink by nearly a quarter by 2030 as climate change wreaks havoc on traditional weather patterns.

That’s according to a new international study from groups including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Rising temperatures and shifts in rainfall will make it harder to grow the crop — a staple in global livestock rations — in areas like the Americas, west Africa and China. And the production cuts are occurring sooner than expected versus past studies.

Meanwhile, wheat yields could climb 17% over the same span as the warming weather expands suitable growing areas. Those gains are likely to level off by mid-century, according to the study. Wheat also fares better than corn from rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, although that can come at the cost of the crop’s nutritional value.

Ukraine’s Winter-Grains Planting Is 90% Complete: Ministry

Ukraine’s farmers have planted winter grains on 7.1m ha, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• 6.1m ha with winter wheat, or 91% of the projected area
• 844,000 ha with winter barley, or 83% of the planned area

Brazil 2021/22 Soy Planting 52% Done as of Oct. 28: AgRural

Compares with 38% a week earlier and 42% a year earlier, consulting firm AgRural says in emailed report.

• Summer corn planting in Brazil Center-South is 63% done, compared with 53% a week earlier and 54% a year earlier

WHEAT/CEPEA: Production estimates for PR are revised down; dollar underpins prices

Wheat prices continue firm in Brazil, majorly in the wholesale market, underpinned by the strong dollar against the Real. Between October 22 and 29, the American currency rose by 0.14%, to BRL 5.648 on Friday, 29. This scenario has been observed despite the wheat harvesting in Brazil. Besides, prices have been high in the international market too. As regards crops, production estimates were revised down in Paraná, still due to the long drought in previous months, which reduced the productive potential of crops.

The harvesting of the current wheat season is in full swing in Brazil. In Paraná, according to Seab/Deral, production estimates were revised down from 3.53 million tons in September to 3.24 million tons in October.

Still, the output is expected to be higher than that in the previous season, influenced by the larger area this season (1.2 million hectares, 7% larger than that in the previous crop). However, productivity is forecast at 2,695 kilograms per hectare, 4.57% down from that last season. In PR, 82% of the crops have been harvested.

In Rio Grande do Sul, according to Emater/RS, the harvesting has reached 28% of the area, favored by the weather. Still, this percentage is below that in the same period last year, of 60%.

Argentina Crop Exporters’ Oct. Sales on FX Market Were $2.4b

Argentina’s crop exporters sold $2.4 billion on the foreign exchange market in October, Ciara-Cec, Argentina’s crop export and crushing chamber, said in an emailed statement.

• This represents a historic high for the month of October
• Amount is a 1% decline from the previous month, but a 41% increase from Oct. 2020
• Sales in the first ten months of the year reached $28.1 billion, a 67% increase from last year and a record high for that time period
• The sales occurred amid an increase in international prices, which compensated the lower volume measured in tons. Positive result was reached despite shipping problems posed by a drought on the Parana River

Top Fertilizer Producers See Massive Price Surge Continuing

• Nutrien raises guidance, Mosaic sees ‘upward’ price trend
• North American fertilizer index more than doubled this year

Two of the world’s top fertilizer producers expect the crop-nutrient price surge will continue.

Nutrien Ltd., the world’s largest crop-nutrient supplier, raised its full year guidance Monday as it forecast strong crop prices will support fertilizer spending. Prices for potash — a key soil nutrient rich in potassium — continue to increase in all key markets driven by record demand and strong grower margins, the company said Monday in a statement.

Its outlook came just as Mosaic Co., the world’s largest phosphate producer, said in a statement it “expects upward pricing momentum to continue” as 90% of fourth quarter sales are committed and priced, with some customers requesting commitments as far forward as second quarter of 2022. Mosaic reported third quarter adjusted earnings that missed the average analyst estimates, with lower potash and phosphate sales volumes, pushing shares lower in afermarket trading.

Malaysia Oct. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports to India 299,630 Tons: SGS

• India imported 299,630 tons; -17.7% m/m
• China imported 222,282 tons; -1% m/m