Global Ag News for Nov 23rd
Australia declares La Nina for second year in a row
Wheat prices overnight are down 1/4 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 5 3/4; Soymeal down $0.08; Soyoil down 0.73.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 22 1/2 in SRW, up 30 3/4 in HRW, up 15 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal down $0.17; Soyoil up 0.56. For the month to date wheat prices are up 72 1/4 in SRW, up 80 1/4 in HRW, down 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans up 19; Soymeal up $32.50; Soyoil down 2.43.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 59 yuan ; Soymeal up 37; Soyoil unchanged; Palm oil down 88; Corn down 23 — Malasyian Palm is down 107. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 107 ringgit (-2.16%) at 4852.
There were changes in registrations (-55 Soybeans). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 904 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 22 were: SRW Wheat down 428 contracts, HRW Wheat down 931, Corn down 1,372, Soybeans up 2,838, Soymeal down 6,123, Soyoil down 2,591.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday, mostly south. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday. East: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday night-Thursday. Lake-effect snow Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal west and near to below normal east Saturday-Wednesday.
The player sheet for Nov. 22 had funds: net buyers of 15,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,500 corn, buyers of 7,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,000 soyoil.
- WHEAT SALE: An importer group in the Philippines is believed to have bought around 40,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat in a tender. The wheat was likely sourced from Australia for about $353.50 a tonne c&f.
- WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer received the lowest price offer estimated at $409.77 a tonne CIF liner out in an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tonnes of wheat. No purchase has yet been reported.
- CORN, SOYMEAL TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase between 48,500 and 58,500 tonnes of animal feed corn and between 8,000 and 16,000 tonnes of soymeal.
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: The United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 110,000 tonnes of milling wheat for supply to Ethiopia
- SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued international tenders to purchase around 115,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms
- BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board, TMO, has increased the volume of animal feed barley it is seeking to buy in an international tender next week to 370,000 tonnes from 320,000 tonnes initially sought
- SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board, TMO, has issued an international tender to purchase and import 6,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
- WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board, TMO, has issued an international tender to purchase about 385,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat
U.S. Oct. Pork Supplies in Cold Storage Dropped to 440M Pounds
According to the USDA’s Nov. 22 cold storage report released on the agency’s website.
- Total pork fell 1.7% from Oct. of last year
- Pork belly supplies dropped to 11.6m pounds from 19m last year
- Beef supplies fell to 477.1m pounds from 500.2m last year
U.S. Inspected 618k Tons of Corn for Export, 1.684m of Soybean
In week ending Nov. 18, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.
- Wheat: 178k tons vs 391k the previous wk, 364k a yr ago
- Soybeans: 1,684k tons vs 2,362k the previous wk, 2,291k a yr ago
- Corn: 618k tons vs 867k the previous wk, 833k a yr ago
Brazil Soybean Planting 84.2% Done as of Nov. 19: Safras
Compares with 77.6% a week earlier and 74.1% a year before, consulting firm Safras & Mercado says in emailed report.
- 5-year average for the period is 77.2%
- In Mato Grosso state, planting is at 99%, vs 5-year average of 96.4%
- In Mato Grosso do Sul, planting is at 99%, vs average of 95%
- In Parana, planting is at 97%, vs average of 94.2%
Brazil Soybean Planting 86% Complete as of Nov. 18: Agrural
Compares with 78% a week earlier and 81% a year before, according to an emalied report from consulting firm AgRural. Summer corn seeding was 91% complete in Brazil’s Center-South region, up from 85% a week earlier.
Egypt has sufficient wheat reserves for five months, minister says
Egypt’s strategic wheat reserves are sufficient to cover five months of consumption, supply minister Ali Moselhy told Reuters on Tuesday.
Indonesia Plans B40 Biodiesel Road Test Next Year: Ministry
Govt will ensure that the B40 biodiesel formula is suitable for the mandatory fuel mix, according to Dadan Kusdiana, a director general at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, on Monday.
- Biodiesel consumption may exceed its allocation by 100,000 kiloliters from this year’s target of 9.2m kiloliters
- Indonesia has consumed 7.66 kiloliters of biodiesel as of Nov. 9
- Govt still calculating the biodiesel consumption target for 2022
- NOTE: Indonesia imposes a national mandate to use 30% of palm-biofuel blended with 70% diesel
Indonesia Is Set to Use Less Palm Oil in Biodiesel This Year
Indonesia, the world’s top producer of palm oil, is likely to use less of the tropical oil in biodiesel this year, according to Togar Sitanggang, vice chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, also known as Gapki.
- The country will consume 7.07m tons for biofuel in 2021 versus 7.23m tons last year, Sitanggang said at a conference by video
- The country’s palm oil output will drop 1.1% to 46.52m tons this year, while exports are set to decline about 0.3% to 33.89m tons and stockpiles are likely to end the year at 3.37m tons, he said
- Considering the lack of new planting, replanting and use of fertilizer, production growth may plateau in 2025
- Levy revision not needed in short term, and funds should be enough to last into first half, unless spread over gasoil widens a lot
- In Malaysia, biodiesel output is seen at 1.2m tons in 2022 vs 1m tons this year, according to Malaysian Biodiesel Association
- Country’s biodiesel exports to decline to 250k tons in 2022 from 300k tons this year, association president U.R. Unnithan said
- Biodiesel blended locally seen rising to 950k tons next year from 700k; very high spread over gasoil will delay increase in local blending target; EU regulations will continue to tighten, curbing exports from Southeast Asia
High Level of Vegetable Oil Prices Is Not Sustainable: Mielke
The current high level of global vegetable oil prices will not endure and palm oil, soybean oil and sunflower oil are likely to drop in the first half of next year, according to Thomas Mielke, executive director of Hamburg-based Oil World.
- World soybean production is set to rise by 17m tons to 379m tons in 2021-22, accounting for more than 60% of all oilseeds, Mielke told an industry conference by video. Output is increasing faster than consumption, and stockpiles are likely to climb, he said.
- Indonesia’s palm oil production is expected to rise by 1.7m-1.9m tons in 2021-22, while output in Malaysia will probably increase by 1m-1.1m tons, he said.
Key Crop Nutrient Buys Slow With Prices at Decade Highs: Scotia
Potash activity has slowed as some buyers become nervous about committing to decade-high prices for the nutrient, Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson says in note Monday.
- “Any upside from here will almost certainly be due supply disruptions” such as Vancouver floods, U.S. Belarus sanctions, Isaacson says
- Note, from August: U.S. Sanctions on Belarus Potash Leave Out Its Sole Seller
- Related: Canadian Potash Inventories Shrink As Shipments Dip: StatsCan
- Fertilizer Extends Rally With Some Prices Soaring Nearly 60%
Australia declares La Nina for second year in a row
Australia’s weather bureau said on Tuesday a La Nina weather phenomenon had developed in the Pacific Ocean for the second year in a row that could bring above average rainfall across the country’s centre, north and east.
La Nina is typically associated with greater rainfall, more tropical cyclones, and cooler than average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The weather event could boost Australia’s wheat yields. In September, the country lifted its wheat forecast for this season by 17% to near record levels citing favourable weather.
A wetter than usual end to the year could also result in a less severe bushfire season.
“Back-to-back La Niña events are not unusual, with around half of all past events returning for a second year,” Andrew Watkins, the Bureau of Meteorology’s Head of Operational Climate Services, said in a statement.
La Niña events normally last about a year but climate models suggest this year’s pattern will be short-lived, persisting until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022, Watkins said.
Badly Timed Rain Hurts Australian Wheat When World Needs It Most
- Benchmark prices for wheat have climbed to highest since 2012
- La Nina rains hurt quality at a time when higher grades needed
Those fretting about the global scarcity of high quality wheat have one more reason to worry: heavy rains at the wrong time in Australia, one of the world’s biggest exporters of the grain.
Just as farmers were set to head into the fields and pull off a bumper harvest, sheets of heavy rain have battered crops across major growing regions in the country’s east, bogging down machinery and raising the risk of hefty downgrades that are likely to worsen a worldwide shortage of milling wheat.
The torrential downpours are typical of a La Nina weather event, which the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday had now commenced. The phenomenon brings above average rainfall to eastern and northern areas of Australia and to Southeast Asia, and dry weather to parts of the Americas.
Russian Wheat Exports Decline Further, Down 18% Y/y: Agency
Wheat shipments for the 2021-22 season amounted to 17.2m tons as of Nov. 18, down 18% from a year earlier, the Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.
- That means wheat exports totaled about 600k tons in the week to Nov. 18
- Exports of all grains are at 20.4m tons so far this season
- Barley exports declined 30% y/y
- Corn exports up 25%
- NOTE: Last week the center said that wheat exports were down 16% y/y
China to accept import applications for Brazil beef certified before Sept 4
China’s customs authorities said on Tuesday they will accept import applications for Brazilian beef that has been granted a sanitary certificate prior to Sept. 4, potentially allowing for cargoes of beef stuck at Chinese ports to finally clear customs.
Brazil had suspended exports of beef to China on Sept. 4 after detecting two cases of atypical mad cow disease but meat that was already at ports continued to be exported, with most of it unable to clear customs on arrival in China.
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