Global Ag News for Nov 16th

Crop Boom Lifts U.S. Farmland Values the Most in Nearly a Decade

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 8 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 2 1/2; Soymeal up $0.09; Soyoil up 0.84.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 2 1/4 in SRW, down 4 in HRW, down 24 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans up 10 1/2; Soymeal up $1.08; Soyoil up 0.03. For the month to date wheat prices are up 45 3/4 in SRW, up 42 1/2 in HRW, down 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal up $37.00; Soyoil down 2.20.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 56 yuan ; Soymeal up 28; Soyoil down 4; Palm oil up 76; Corn up 17 — Malasyian Palm is up 21. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 21 ringgit (+0.42%) at 4987 as a jump in Malaysian exports stoked optimism over stronger demand from key regions including India, China and Europe.

There were changes in registrations (-78 Soybeans, ). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,115 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 15 were: SRW Wheat up 1,339 contracts, HRW Wheat down 5,367, Corn down 7,272, Soybeans up 1,036, Soymeal up 1,738, Soyoil down 3,401.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated showers south Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near normal Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near normal Friday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday. East: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for Nov. 15 had funds: net buyers of 5,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, buyers of 7,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • CORN SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 148,200 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico in the 2021/22 marketing year and 50,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico in the 2022/23 marketing years, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.
  • SOYBEAN SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 264,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in the 2021/22 marketing year, USDA said.
  • CORN PURCHASE: Chinese buyers made substantial purchases of Ukrainian-origin animal feed corn late last week, European traders said. The volumes bought were unclear.
  • CORN PURCHASE: Turkish grain board TMO bought an estimated 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender. The corn was expected to be mainly sourced from the Black Sea region, especially Ukraine.
  • WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase 48,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States. Deadline for price offers is Nov. 18.
  • WHEAT TENDER POSTPONED: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have suspended negotiations in its international tender to buy milling wheat with talks to resume on Tuesday morning.

PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender was Nov. 9.
  • WHEAT TENDER: The United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 110,000 tonnes of milling wheat for supply to Ethiopia, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender was Nov. 9.
  • WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2022, and arrive in Japan by Feb. 24, via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on Nov. 17.
  • SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued international tenders to purchase around 115,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms, European traders said. The food-quality soybeans are sought from optional origins for arrival in South Korea in 2023. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Nov. 17.
  • WHEAT AND CORN TENDER: South Korea’s largest feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 69,000 tonnes of animal feed corn and 65,000 tonnes of feed wheat to be sourced from optional origins
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat, traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is Nov. 22.
  • WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Nov. 30.
  • FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines is tendering to purchase an estimated 220,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat

 NOPA October soy crush rises to 183.993 million bushels

Soybean processors crushed the most amount of soybeans in nine months during October, with supplies from harvest providing ample stocks for their operations, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members crushed 183.993 million bushels of soybeans in October, up from 153.800 million bushels crushed in September but below the 185.245 million bushels in crushed October 2020.

The October crush, which was the third highest monthly total on record, reflects the withdrawal of one NOPA member from reporting, the group said.

Processors had been expected to crush 181.945 million bushels during the month, according to the average of estimates from 11 analysts. Estimates ranged from 176.900 million to 187.789 million bushels, with a median of 181.700 million bushels.

NOPA said soyoil supplies among its members as of Oct. 31 rose to 1.835 billion lbs, the highest since the end of May 2020. A month ago, soyoil stocks stood at 1.684 billion lbs.

Soyoil stocks have risen for four months in a row.

Oil stocks had been expected to rise to 1.724 billion lbs, based on estimates gathered from eight analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.590 billion to 1.834 billion, with a median of 1.742 billion.

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn 91% Harvested, Soybeans 92% Harvested

Highlights from the report:

  • Corn harvest 91% vs 84% last week, and 94% a year ago
  • Soybeans harvested 92% vs 87% last week, and 95% a year ago
  • Winter wheat 46% G/E vs 45% last week, and 46% a year ago
  • Winter wheat planted 94% vs 91% last week, and 96% a year ago
  • Winter wheat emerged 81% vs 74% last week, and 84% a year ago
  • Cotton harvested 65% vs 55% last week, and 68% a year ago

Crop Boom Lifts U.S. Farmland Values the Most in Nearly a Decade

High crop prices are trickling down to agriculture real estate, which have risen by the most in nearly a decade.

Farmland values jumped 18% from a year ago during the third quarter of 2021 in the Seventh Federal Reserve District, a five-state region including all of Iowa and most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin, according to the Chicago Fed.

The gains come as farmers were bolstered by high incomes and low interest rates, and after corn and soybean futures climbed to multiyear peaks in Chicago amid adverse weather for crops.

Now, the high farmland prices are adding to concerns about inflation, with rising costs for raw materials and transportation leading to increases in food prices.

Palm Oil Imports by India Slump 45% in October, Association Says

Palm oil imports by the world’s biggest buyer sank to 693,319 tons in October from 1.26m tons a month earlier, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

  • India bought 776,410 tons in October 2020
  • Palm oil imports rose to 8.32m tons during the oil year that ended in October from 7.22m tons a year earlier
  • Soybean oil imports 216,920 tons in October vs 235,852 tons m/m
    • Purchases in 2020-21 dropped to 2.87m tons from 3.38m tons year earlier
  • Sunflower oil purchases totaled 116,900 tons in October vs 180,608 tons m/m
    • Imports fell to 1.89m tons in 2020-21 from 2.52m tons
  • Total vegetable oil imports, including non-edible oil, 1.06m tons in October vs 1.76m tons m/m
    • Vegetable oil imports during the year ended October totaled 13.53m tons, almost unchanged for a year earlier
  • Total edible oil stockpiles at ports and in the pipeline were 1.71m tons on Nov. 1, down from 2.01m tons at the start of October

Malaysia Nov. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports to EU 193,820 Tons: SGS

Following is a table of Malaysia’s palm oil export figures, according to estimates by independent cargo surveyor SGS Malaysia Sdn.

  • EU imported 193,820 tons; +124.5% m/m
  • India imported 180,300 tons; +7.9% m/m
  • China imported 130,135 tons; +29.2% m/m

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Exports Rise to 2.1m Tons M/m: Intertek

Shipments rose from 1.96m tons in the previous month, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services says in an emailed statement on Tuesday.

  • Oct. shipments by grade:
    • 82,170 tons of crude palm oil
    • 848,077 tons of RDB palm olein
    • 485,953 tons of RBD palm oil
  • Oct. versus Sept. sales by destination:
    • China at 439,605 tons vs. 335,452 tons
    • EU at 443,956 tons vs. 357,957 tons
    • India and subcontinent at 376,301 tons vs. 556,474 tons

UkrAgroConsult Sees Record Romanian Winter-Crop Plantings

The planted area of main winter crops in Romania may beat the five-year average by 3%-4% and reach a new record of as much as 3.1m hectares, researcher UkrAgroConsult said in a report.

  • Cites a further rebound in rapeseed area amid favorable weather in August
  • Romania’s winter crops are mainly wheat, barley and rapeseed

Russian Share of Turkey Wheat Imports Drops on Tax: Ulusoy

Russia’s share of Turkish wheat imports has declined to 67% this year, from more than 80% typically, Gunhan Ulusoy, chairman of flour miller Ulusoy Un, said at the Global Grain Geneva conference.

  • Russia’s floating wheat-export tax has increased prices and also shifted shipment programs toward a spot basis
  • That’s given other exporters an opportunity, and the preference may linger even if the tax is eventually rowed back
  • NOTE: Turkey is one of the world’s largest wheat importers and typically one of Russia’s top markets

France’s Rouen Grain Exports Doubled in Week to Nov. 10: Port

Grain shipments from France’s Rouen port totaled 205,032 tons in the week to Nov. 10, compared with 104,600 tons a week earlier, according to an emailed report.

India’s 2020/21 palm oil imports jump 15.2% -trade body

India’s palm oil imports in 2020/21 rose 15.2% from a year ago to 8.32 million tonnes, while soyoil imports fell 15% to 2.87 million tonnes, a leading trade body said on Tuesday.

The country’s vegetable oil imports for the 2020/21 marketing year ended on Oct. 31 stood at 13.53 million tonnes, a tad higher than 13.52 million tonnes a year ago, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) said.

Russia May Consider Regulating Domestic Fertilizer Prices: Iz.ru

Russian Agriculture Ministry proposes to develop regulatory legal act that would create an indicator of availability of fertilizers on the domestic market, Iz.ru reports, citing an obtained document.

  • If fertilizers availability drops below a target level, Agriculture Ministry proposes freezing domestic prices
  • Proposal is designed as a long-term measure to combat food price inflation

Farmers Are Eager to Update Equipment, ‘Machinery Pete’ Says

Farmers flush with cash are facing machinery shortages due to the ongoing supply-chain crisis and the extended labor strike among Deere union members, making it tougher to update the precision agriculture technology that makes farming more efficient, according to Greg Peterson.

When farmers “are making a little bit of money, the need to update their farm equipment lines is right at the top of their list,” says Peterson, who runs the Machinery Pete website, a go-to source for the used-farm equipment market

Australia Facing Unusual Rains at Wheat Harvest: Grain Growers

The current storms across Australia are unseasonal for this time of year and have spanned most of the country, David McKeon, CEO of Grain Growers, said on a panel at the Global Grain Geneva conference.

  • Much of the grain-producing regions have had 10mm-100mm (0.4-4 inches) in the past two weeks, which is a significant amount
    • NOTE: Rains during wheat harvesting can curb quality
  • There’s still room for Australia to collect a high-quality crop, McKeon said
    • If wet conditions continue for another four or more weeks, it will be a greater concern
  • Situation is nowhere near as bad as 2010 yet, when many farmers in the east saw grain lowered to feed-quality due to heavy rain, said Andrew Whitelaw of Thomas Elder Markets

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