Global Ag News for May 28th
TODAY—- COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 3 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 6; Soymeal up $0.11; Soyoil down 0.01.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, up 20 in HRS; Corn is up 7 3/4; Soybeans up 17; Soymeal down $0.74; Soyoil up 1.32.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 61 3/4 in SRW, down 80 3/4 in HRW, down 43 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/4; Soybeans up 8 3/4; Soymeal down $34.70; Soyoil up 4.41.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 23 yuan ; Soymeal up 43; Soyoil up 76; Palm oil up 66; Corn up 15 — Malasyian Palm is up 86.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 86 ringgit (+2.20%) at 4002 on stronger soybean oil prices in Chicago and concerns about supplies due to coronavirus-related restrictions in some areas of second-biggest grower Malaysia.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday, north Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Monday. East: Scattered showers late Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 15,000contracts of SRW Wheat; buyers of 32,500 corn, buyers of 20,000 soybeans, buyers of 5,000 Soymeal, and; net buyers of 6,500 lots of Soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 27 were: SRW Wheat down 3,471 contracts, HRW Wheat up 775, Corn up 3,490, Soybeans up 3,564, Soymeal up 2,844, Soyoil up 13,782.
There were changes in registrations (-152 Soybeans). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 1,003 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.
- WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO), issued an international tender to purchase about 720,000 tonnes of wheat
- CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 152,400 tonnes of U.S. new-crop corn to unknown destinations.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture bought 124,620 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender.
- WHEAT TENDER CANCELED: Tunisia’s state grains agency canceled a tender to purchase about 92,000 tonnes of optional-origin soft wheat
- FEED WHEAT TENDER: Indonesia Seeks 240,000 Tons of Feed Wheat
- FEED WHEAT TENDER: Indonesia’s state procurement agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy and import about 180,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 tonnes of durum wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Sept. 30 and arrive in Japan by Nov. 25, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on June 2.
Goldman Says China Has Lost the Ability to Boss Commodity Prices
- Dips after Beijing speculator warnings a buying opportunity
- Fiscal stimulus means U.S. now has more pricing power
China’s efforts to rein in surging commodities prices are likely to be in vain as it’s lost the ability to boss the market amid the developed-nation recovery from the pandemic, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The largest buyer of many commodities, China has been trying to temper the rally due to fears over inflation. It’s jawboning has had some success, with local iron ore prices down more than 20% since May 12. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index is only down around 1% over the period, however.
Major Wheat Exporter Sees an Avalanche of Farmer Selling
Farmers in Argentina, the world’s seventh-biggest supplier of wheat, are piling into forward contracts to sell their grain to traders like never before. While the crop is only just getting planted — with the harvest season mainly in November and December — growers have already sold and priced 2.3 million metric tons, around double their commitments at the same point last year. High prices, good field moisture for seeding and concerns that the government will meddle in exports with higher taxes or restrictions are all driving the spree.
2020/2021 Corn Export Cargo Quality Report: Overall Good Quality for U.S. Corn
The quality of U.S. corn assembled for export early in the 2020/2021 marketing year was rated at U.S. grade No. 2 or better on all grade factors, with higher test weight and lower total damage and broken corn and foreign material (BCFM) than 2019/2020 export samples, according to the U.S. Grains Council’s (USGC’s) 2020/2021 Corn Export Cargo Quality Report
Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates May 27: Exchange (Table)
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.
- 2020-21 corn production unchanged from a week ago, soybean production up 0.5m tons
- Soybean harvest advances to 91% complete vs 85% in the previous week
- The following table compares most current data to previous week and last year’s crop:
USDA April soybean crush seen at 171.1 million bushels
U.S. soybean processors likely crushed 5.133 million short tons, or 171.1 million bushels, of soybeans in April, according to the average forecast of seven analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report. Estimates ranged from 170.0 million bushels to 173.0 million bushels, with a median of 171.0 million bushels.
U.S. soyoil stocks as of April 30 were estimated at 2.171 billion lbs, based on estimates from five analysts, compared with 2.245 billion lbs at the end of March and 2.602 billion lbs at the end of April 2020. Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 2.150 billion to 2.200 billion lbs, with a median of 2.167 billion lbs.
U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 18% Last Week: USDA
Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers increased in the week ending May 22 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
- Barge shipments of corn rose 20% from the previous week
- Soybean shipments up 2% w/w
Vietnam to Halt Pig Shipments From Thailand on Swine Fever: VTV
Vietnam to suspend live pig imports from Thailand beginning June 30 after it detected some pig shipments infected with African swine fever, Vietnam Television reports on its website, citing info from agriculture ministry’s animal health department.
- Country found African swine fever among 980 pigs shipped from Thailand last week
- Vietnam will consider resuming the imports when Thailand’s pig shipments meet its safety conditions
Argentina Objects 2018 Merger of Syngenta and Nidera Seeds: Govt
Domestic Trade Secretariat and national competition regulator object the merger and call on the companies to take measures to mitigate concentration in Argentina’s sunflower seed market, according to a Production Ministry statement dated May 22. Syngenta-Nidera would have 60% of the market: statement
China’s feed lots set to snap up wheat harvest for pigs, poultry
China’s massive livestock sector is set to snap up millions of tonnes of wheat from the country’s winter harvest that began this month, extending a run of crop-switching in animal feed and further cooling demand for corn imports. Corn imports surged last year after a decline in stockpiles and production, pushing up prices and reshaping global grain markets as feed producers and pig farmers scoured the world for supplies. At the same time, China’s feed sector purchased record volumes of cheaper wheat from the 2020/21 season for use as a substitute for corn, traditionally the main grain in animal rations.
Russia to reduce export tax on soybeans from July 1 -TASS
The Russian government has reduced the country’s export tax on soybeans to 20% from 30% starting from July 1, TASS news agency reported, citing the government. The new tax will be in place until September 2022, it said.
EU Raises Soft-Wheat Harvest Estimate; Keeps Exports Steady
This year’s EU soft-wheat harvest is now seen at 126.2m tons, up from an April estimate for 124.8m tons, the European Commission says in a report.
Global Grain Supply Crunch Is Set to Get Worse, IGC Says
Global grain stockpiles could grow even slimmer next season, exacerbating a supply crunch across crop markets already pushing up food prices.
The International Grains Council cut its inventory estimate for the 2021-22 season to 595 million tons, the lowest in seven years, according to a report published Thursday. Rising animal-feed demand and a drought-stricken Brazilian corn crop are outweighing bumper harvests elsewhere, shrinking the world’s grain supply cushion for a fifth straight season.
Next season’s supply drawdown comes even as the IGC expects China’s grain imports to ebb from an all-time high, easing 14% from this year’s levels to 47.7 million tons. That figure includes 18.5 million tons of corn and 9 million of wheat, which are still well above its historical purchases. The country has been loading up on foreign crops to feed its hog herd, which is recovering from disease outbreaks.
“While China’s imports of grains are seen remaining elevated, they may not match the record of the season before,” the council said in the report.
Goldman Sees China-Led Dip in Commodities as Buying Opportunity
The pullback in commodities after China’s warnings over onshore speculation is a “clear buying opportunity,” Goldman analysts including Jeff Currie and Damien Courvalin said in a report.
- Fundamental path in key commodities such as oil, copper and soybeans remains focused toward incremental tightness in the second half of the year, with little evidence of a supply response sufficient to derail the bull market
- Velocity of the developed-market recovery means China no longer is the marginal buyer dictating pricing, and is being crowded out by the Western consumer
- Speculators track fundamentals, simply translating fundamental information into price discovery, and banning them has tended to lead to more price volatility historically
- Absent the large size of U.S. fiscal stimulus in their country, China’s consumers are first ones to be priced out as scarcity generates shortages and higher prices
French Wheat, Barley Ratings Improve in Week to May 24: AgriMer
The amount of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition improved in the week to May 24, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday. Corn planting is 98% complete
Saskatchewan Plants 86% of Crop Even as Much-Needed Rain Arrives
Seeding in Saskatchewan is ahead of its five-year average of 77% for this time of year, the provincial government said in a weekly crop report Thursday.
- Recent rains will improve crop germination and emergence, delayed in many areas due to dry conditions
- Steady rain in the last week delayed some seeding
- 6% of cropland topsoil moisture is rated surplus, 80% adequate, 11% short and 3% very short
- 4% of hay and pasture topsoil moisture is surplus, 66% adequate, 26% short, 4% very short
- Most crops are developing normally, but some are behind due to unusually cool temperatures and limited moisture
- Strong winds, light frosts, limited moisture and flea beetles caused some crop damage
Manitoba Farmers to Assess Crop Damage After Hard Frost
One of Canada’s key agricultural provinces was hit by a late-spring frost overnight Wednesday, but the damage will not be known for days, a spokesman said Thursday.
- All but one of the 125 weather stations reported freezing overnight temperatures, says Dane Froese in a phone interview, oilseeds specialist for Manitoba Agriculture and Resource Development
- Lowest overnight temperature of -8.9C (16F) at Narcisse, roughly 100 km (62 miles) north of Winnipeg, where freezing levels lasted for 11 hours
- Bulk of agricultural land experienced overnight temperatures of -1C to -3C
- “Time will tell if this was a very damaging or economically impactful frost,” Froese says
- Earliest indication of impact on crop survivability will be Saturday
- Late seeding means damage may be limited due to low crop emergence level
- The last “economically significant” spring frost was May 2015, when a large number of crops were killed and reseeded, Froese says
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