Global Ag News for June 7th

 TODAY—-  EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 1/2 in SRW, up 8 in HRW, up 15 in HRS; Corn is up 11 1/4; Soybeans up 28 1/2; Soymeal up $0.47; Soyoil up 1.66.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 32 1/2 in SRW, up 31 1/4 in HRW, up 100 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 37; Soybeans up 91 1/4; Soymeal up $0.54; Soyoil up 7.17.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 32 3/4 in SRW, up 31 1/4 in HRW, up 100 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 37 1/4; Soybeans up 91 1/4; Soymeal up $5.40; Soyoil up 7.17.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 50 yuan ; Soymeal up 49; Soyoil up 62; Palm oil up 14; Corn down 2 — Malasyian Palm is down 29. Malaysian markets are closed for holiday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers southeast through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. East: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday, east Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 6/4 had funds: net buyers of 7,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 27,500 corn, buyers of 22,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 11,000 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 4 were: SRW Wheat up 3,449 contracts, HRW Wheat up 604, Corn down 1,040, Soybeans up 10,671, Soymeal up 2,093, Soyoil up 3,440.

There were changes in registrations (-100 Soyoil). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 868 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) is believed to have purchased around 195,000 tonnes of milling wheat in a tender for 60,000 tonnes which closed on Wednesday.
• SOYOIL, SUNOIL SALE: Iran’s state purchasing agency GTC has bought about 60,000 tonnes of soyoil and 30,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in a tender which closed on Wednesday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat.
• WHEAT BRAN TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 20,000 tonnes of wheat bran.
• Egypt’s GASC is seeking at least 30,000 tons of soybean oil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil for arrival from Aug. 1-20
• Algeria Seeks 50,000 Tons of Soft Wheat

China May Soybean Imports 9.607m Tons: Customs

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Soybean imports YTD rose 12.8% y/y to 38.234m tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports in May 980,000 tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD rose 44.9% y/y to 4.778m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in May 789,000 tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports YTD rose 12.6% y/y to 4.336m tons

China’s May soybean imports rise 29% on-month on delayed Brazil arrivals

China’s soybean imports rose in May from the previous month, customs data showed on Monday, as more cargoes from top supplier Brazil cleared customs.

China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 9.61 million tonnes of the oilseed in May, up 29% from 7.45 million tonnes in April, when some Brazilian shipments were delayed, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

May’s imports were also up from 9.38 million tonnes in the same month a year ago.

Chinese crushers had stepped up purchases of beans from top supplier Brazil in anticipation of strong demand from a fast recovering pig sector, but rains in the South American country slowed the harvest and exports of the oilseed.

Delayed cargoes began to arrive in China in large quantity from April but the impact of the rains is still lingering.

Traders said some cargoes would be rolled over due to the delays and arrive in China in June.

Soybean arrivals in the next two months were expected to exceed 10 million tonnes, adding to already healthy supplies of beans, analysts said.

However, appetite for feed from the hog sector may be subdued in the short-term as a large volume of heavy pigs are sent to the market, China Construction Bank Futures said in a note last week.

Falling pig prices and rising feed costs were also expected to deter some farmers from restocking their herd, although soymeal demand is expected to be healthy in the long-term as China’s herd recovers from a devastating outbreak of African swine fever.

China brought in 38.23 million tonnes of soybeans in the first five months of 2021, up 12.8% from the same period last year, according to customs data.

U.S. Sold 198K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 971K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending May 27.

• Corn sales fell to 971k tons vs 6,247k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 198k tons vs 304k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 365k tons vs 403k in previous week

 Argentine customs officials plan 7-hour strike over vaccine access

Customs officials who process grains exports from Argentina said on Friday they will hold a seven-hour strike on Tuesday to press their demand for priority access to COVID-19 vaccinations.

Tugboat captains and other maritime port workers held a similar protest last month until the government agreed to designate them as essential workers, thus making them eligible for vaccines against the coronavirus as the South American grains powerhouse gets hit by a second wave of infections.

Such a short work stoppage was not expected to have a major impact on shipments from Argentina, the world’s No. 3 corn exporter and top supplier of soymeal livestock feed. But shipments could get bogged down if longer strikes are called.

 IKAR Raises Russia Wheat Crop Outlook to 80M Tons on Rains

That’s up from a prior outlook for 79.5m tons, according to IKAR Director General Dmitry Rylko.

• Crop conditions are improving in south and central regions due to rains
• That’s helping to offset problems in the eastern wheat belt, where spring-wheat crops have faced dryness

 Algeria Grains Harvest May Fall 35-40% Y/y on Drought

Algeria’s 2021 grains harvest could fall 35-40% versus last year’s 5m-ton crop because of drought, Reuters reports, citing an estimate from farmers’ union chief Mohamed Alioui.

• “Drought has hit all provinces in the east and west, mainly those known for high production,” Alioui says
• Movement restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic also curbed output
• NOTE: Algeria is a large wheat importer and sources much of its supply from France
  • USDA estimates its 2021-22 purchases at 7.6m tons, up 17% y/y

Considering an estimated output of 137.9m mt, sales were 103.7m mt so far, consultancy firm Safras & Mercado says in email.

• Compares with 88.7% of estimated output one year earlier; 5-year average at 71.5%
• Higher prices explain sales above historical average, Safras says
• Advance sales for 2021/22 season are at 19.2%; compares with 35.6% a year earlier and a 5-year average of 14%

 SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Premium and dollar press down prices in Brazil; liquidity is low

Soybean prices faded in the Brazilian market in the last days, reflecting the end of the harvesting in Argentina, the decrease in the export premium for soybean in Brazil and the sharp dollar depreciation against the Real – on Wednesday, 2, the American currency closed at the lowest level since mid-December 2020.

SALES – The devaluations of soybean in the Brazilian market were limited by the price rises abroad and the absence of sellers in the domestic market, since more than 50% of the 2020/21 season has been sold in Brazil. Now, soybean farmers have already made cash flow and are interested in stocking soybean rather than selling it in the spot market.

In Paraná, 70% of the 2020/21 crop has been sold, according to Deral/Seab. In Mato Grosso, according to Imea, 83.46% of the 2020/21 crop has been traded, still below the 88.98% sold in the same period last year. For the 2021/22 crop, Imea estimates that 27.72% of the output in Mato Grosso has been marketed.

According to data from Secex, in May, Brazil exported 16.40 million tons of soybean, 5.64% down from the volume shipped in April, but a record for the month. This year (Jan. – May), Brazil has exported 49.46 million tons of soybean, 7.42% up from that in the same period last year and also a record for the period.

CORN/CEPEA: Prices resume following opposite trends among the regions surveyed

 Cepea, June 4 – Corn prices have resumed following opposite trends among the regions surveyed by Cepea, influenced by local supply and demand.

In most of the regions in southern and southeastern Brazil, prices increased in the last days because farmers resumed constraining supply, due to concerns about crops productivity. Between May 28 and June 2, the highest rises, by 7 and 5.3%, were registered in Araxá (MG) and the Mogiana (SP), where the 60-kilo bag of corn was sold by 86.57 BRL and 92.64 BRL, respectively, on Wednesday, 2.

On the other hand, in some regions in São Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul and in all Mato Grosso, values dropped, pressed down by the one-off increase in supply. Thus, between May 28 and June 2, corn prices decreased by a steep 9.3% in Rondonópolis (MT), to 78.56 BRL/bag on Wednesday, and 4.6% in Primavera do Leste (MT), to 76.00 BRL/bag.

At ports, liquidity has been low, due to the high domestic prices. In May, Brazil exported 13.9 thousand tons of corn, 10.6% of the volume shipped in April and 44% down from that exported in May 2020. On the other hand, imports totaled 62.3 thousand tons, much higher than the 8.9 thousand tons imported in May 2020.

Malaysia June 1-5 Palm Oil Exports -28.36% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 28.36% m/m during June 1-5, according to Intertek Testing Services.

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 44% Above Normal as of June 6

India has so far received 28.5 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 19.8 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on June 6.

• Rainfall in the southern peninsular region was at 97% above normal
• The eastern and northeastern region got 2% below normal rains