Global Ag News for July 23rd

TODAY – CATTLE ON FEED, CATTLE INVENTORY, COMMITMENTS OF TRADER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3/4 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 10; Soymeal down $0.37; Soyoil up 0.20.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, down 13 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/4; Soybeans down 39 1/2; Soymeal down $0.39; Soyoil down 3.06. For the month to date wheat prices are up 12 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, up 53 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 31 1/4; Soybeans down 46 3/4; Soymeal down $19.40; Soyoil down 0.60.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 12 yuan ; Soymeal down 72; Soyoil up 6; Palm oil up 108; Corn up 3 — Malasyian Palm is up 134. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 134 ringgit (+3.25%) at 4255 for its longest streak of weekly gains in a year amid concerns about declining production in the world’s biggest growers.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Isolated showers south Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday. East: Isolated showers northwest Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday, mostly north. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

The player sheet for 7/22 had funds: net sellers of 8,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 corn, sellers of 10,500 soybeans, sellers of 5,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 175 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 22 were: SRW Wheat up 3,384 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,142, Corn down 2,321, Soybeans down 4,344, Soymeal down 2,339, Soyoil down 4,901.

TENDERS

• NON-GMO SOY PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp bought about 4,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in an international tender for about 7,600 tonnes

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat

U.S. Sold 238K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; -41K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending July 15.

• Corn sales fell to -41k tons vs 272k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 238k tons vs 313k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 478k tons vs 425k in previous week

U.S. Export Sales of Pork and Beef

• Mexico bought 10k tons of the 24.5k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

LIVESTOCK: U.S. Red Meat Production Fell 2.6% Y/y in June

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.67b pounds in June, according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production up 1% y/y to 2.4b pounds
• June cattle slaughter totaled 2.95m head, an 2.6% increase from a year ago
  • Avg live weight dropped by 19 pounds from last yr to 1,346 pounds
• Pork production down 6.1% y/y to 2.25b pounds
• Hog slaughter fell 4.8% y/y to 10,648m head
  • Avg live weight was 284 pounds vs 288 pounds a year ago

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates July 22:

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2020-21 corn production estimate unchanged from last week
• Corn harvest 72% complete vs 62%

U.S. Wheat Crops in Drought Area Rise; Corn Is Unchanged: USDA

• Spring wheat area in drought rose to 99%

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 7% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers increased in the week ending July 17 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 5% from the previous week
• Barge shipments of wheat fell 8% from the previous week

 United Grain to Restart Sales of Russian Grain Stockpiles

Wheat of 2014-2016 season crop and barley of 2013-2016 season will be offered at bourse run by the Moscow Exchange, according to a company statement.

• NOTE: Earlier this month: United Grain Co. to Start Wheat Purchases on Moscow Exchange

China’s soybean imports to slow over rest of 2021 on curbed meal use

China’s soybean imports are set to slow sharply in late 2021 from a record first-half tally, confounding expectations for sustained growth from the top global buyer and denting market sentiment just as U.S. farmers look to sell their new crop.

A collapse in hog sector profitability and a sharp rise in wheat feed use are crimping demand in China, where imports this year may now be less than 100 million tonnes, compared with a recent U.S. forecast of 102 million tonnes.

China imported a record 48.95 million tonnes in the first half of 2021, up nearly 9% on the year as hog herds recovered from a deadly disease outbreak and top producer Brazil shipped a record crop. Now, however, demand is stumbling, analysts say.

China Sells Only 4% of U.S. Corn Offered From Reserves July 23

China’s state grains stockpiler Sinograin sold only 8,207 tons out of 201,350 tons of genetically modified U.S. corn offered at auction on Friday, the company said, without giving price details. There were no bidders for 23,488 tons of corn from Ukraine, co. said in separate report

Saskatchewan Crops Are So Stressed That Rain Can’t Boost Yields

Wildfire smoke provided a reprieve from heat stress on crops in the Canadian Prairie province, but any rain received now will only maintain yields, not increase them, Saskatchewan government says Thursday.

• Crops remain extremely stressed from lack of moisture and are advancing quickly due to the heat, weekly crop report says
  • 51% of fall cereals, 52% of spring cereals are at normal development stages
  • 50% of oilseeds, 49% of pulse crops at normal stages for this time of year
• Some producers are cutting cereal crops that aren’t developing kernels to be used as feed
  • Many are assessing whether to spray pesticide for grasshoppers or cut poor crops for feed
• Only 8% of cropland topsoil moisture is rated adequate, 39% short, 53% very short
  • 6% of hay and pasture topsoil moisture is adequate, 31% short, 63% very short
  • Hay yields are well below normal, and many producers are unsure if there will be a second cut this year
• Crop damage over past week due to hail, strong winds, lack of moisture, heat and grasshoppers

Food Crops Become Animal Feed as North American Drought Worsens

• Failed wheat, barley fields are being fed to hungry cattle
• Crops that should be ‘armpit high’ are ‘boot-high at best’

Drought is withering crops on both sides of the U.S.-Canadian border, prompting farmers to take the rare measure of baling up their wheat and barley stems to sell as hay. The bales are providing much-needed forage for livestock operators struggling against a lack of pasture and soaring feed costs, and also signal smaller grain harvests that could keep crop prices high in the months to come. Temperatures are expected to soar next week in the Great Plains, further threatening parched farm fields.

The dry conditions highlight how extreme weather is affecting agriculture and stoking higher prices that have fueled food-inflation concerns. Desperate farmers in both countries have requested emergency help from their governments, and some ranchers are selling off portions of their herds because of the dearth of feed.

In North Dakota, where the entire state is in a drought, hay crops are only 10% to 25% of normal while cattle ranchers are already reducing herds by boosting animal sales at auction, Jeff Schafer, president of the North Dakota Stockmen’s Association, said during a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration webinar.

China Warns Over Spread of Animal Diseases After Henan Flooding

China’s agriculture ministry warned about possible epidemics of animal diseases after the deadly floods in Henan province, one of the country’s top hog and chicken producers.

• Continuous rains in Henan and serious floods in Zhengzhou recently caused severe damage to livestock and poultry farms
• Risks of animal disease epidemics have increased significantly
• Central government leaders attach great importance to this and require authorities to take measures to prevent epidemics
  • The ministry has published technical guidance on prevention of animal diseases
  • The ministry urged local authorities to act responsibly in retrieving carcasses from lakes and rivers, and to monitor closely outbreaks of diseases, including African swine fever and bird flu
  • Sale and processing of carcasses are strictly prohibited

French Wheat Harvest Slow; Corn Conditions Improve: AgriMer

About 14% of the French soft-wheat crop was harvested in the week ended July 19, versus 67% at the same time last year, FranceAgriMer datashowed on Friday.

• Winter-barley collection is three-quarters complete
• NOTE: Field work in western EU has been hampered by heavy rain, though sunshine this week allowed farmers to make progress

Russia harvests 34.9 mln tonnes of grain as on July 21, close to last year’s figure – Interfax Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire

Russia’s grain harvest totaled 34.9 million tonnes as on July 21, close to last year’s figure of 35.3 million tonnes, the country’s Agriculture Ministry said in a report following a meeting of the operational department chaired by First Deputy Agriculture Minister Dzhambulat Khatuov.

The ministry said that the current year’s grain yield of 33.7 centners per hectare exceeds last year’s yield of 33.4 c/ha.

The report also said that unfavorable weather conditions have been observed in a number of regions, such as atmospheric and soil drought, dry winds, and floods. A state of emergency has been implemented at the regional level in nine of the country’s constituent entities.

According to Khatuov, the situation is under the special control of the Agriculture Ministry, which expects harvesting to continue as usual and for harvest forecasts to be fulfilled.

The Agriculture Ministry forecasts this year’s grain harvest at possibly being 127.4 million tonnes, including 81 million tonnes of wheat. Last year’s harvest totaled 133.5 million tonnes, including 85.9 million tonnes of wheat.

Russia Cuts Wheat Export Tax to $31.4/Ton for Next Week

Russia’s wheat export customs duty will fall to $31.4/ton, from $35.20/ton currently, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday on its website. NOTE: The rates are set weekly and take effect three working days after publication.