Global Ag News For July 19th


Wheat prices overnight are up 8 1/4 in SRW, up 9 1/2 in HRW, up 22 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 10 1/2; Soybeans up 11 3/4; Soymeal up $0.26; Soyoil up 0.30.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 60 1/4 in SRW, up 45 3/4 in HRW, up 82 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 29 1/2; Soybeans up 53 1/4; Soymeal up $0.63; Soyoil up 3.13.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 21 1/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 90 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 26; Soybeans up 4 1/2; Soymeal down $12.90; Soyoil up 2.76.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 87 yuan ; Soymeal up 66; Soyoil up 102; Palm oil up 150; Corn down 42 — Malasyian Palm is up 16. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 16 ringgit (+0.39%) at 4153 on an extended rally in rival soybean oil prices and as expectations of lower output from Malaysia, the second largest grower, underpinned optimism.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal. East: Scattered showers south and east. Temperatures near to below normal. Forecast: West: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers far north Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. East: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers far north Tuesday, northwest Wednesday. Scattered showers east late Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers west Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 7/16 had funds: net buyers of 10,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

There were changes in registrations (-1 SRW Wheat, -77 Corn). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 262 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 16 were: SRW Wheat up 4,028 contracts, HRW Wheat up 861, Corn up 1,549, Soybeans up 5,006, Soymeal up 1,547, Soyoil up 679.


  • WHEAT SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 134,000 tonnes of soft red winter wheat to China for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender.


  • WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corp has issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat for shipment in August and September.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat.
  • SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase around 7,600 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms for arrival between Aug. 20 and Oct. 20
  • WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat

China June Grain and Oilseed Imports

General Administration of Customs says on website.

  • June Corn Imports 3.57M Tons, +305% Y/y ton
    • YTD corn imports rose 318.5% y/y to 15.3m tons
  • June wheat imports 750,000 tons, -17% y/y
    • YTD wheat imports rose 60.1% y/y to 5.37m tons
  • June sugar imports 420,000 tons, +1.7% y/y
    • YTD sugar imports rose 63.3% y/y to 2.03m tons
  • June cotton imports 170,000 tons, +90.6% y/y
    • YTD cotton imports rose 72% y/y to 1.55m tons
  • June edible palm oil imports 370,000 tons, -21.1% y/y
    • YTD edible palm oil imports rose 15.7% y/y to 2.1m tons
  • June barley imports 1,000,000 tons, +100% y/y
    • YTD barley imports rose 131.1% y/y to 5.65m tons
  • June sorghum imports 1.1m tons, +61% y/y
    • YTD sorghum imports rose 169.4% y/y to 4.79m tons
  • June pork imports 340,000 tons, -13.7% y/y
    • YTD pork imports rose 8.5% y/y to 2.3m tons
  • June beef imports 160,000 tons, -8.8% y/y
    • YTD beef imports rose 13.7% y/y to 1.13m tons

U.S. appeals court rules in favor of environmental groups in biofuel case

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled on Friday in favor of environmental groups who argued against the U.S. government’s conclusion that biofuel blending obligations posed no danger to species’ habitats.

The Environmental Protection Agency decides on the amount of biofuels that oil refiners must blend into their fuel each year, per the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard. The United States started the program to help farmers and boost the country’s energy independence.

Corn-based ethanol’s effect on carbon dioxide emissions depends on how the biofuel is made and whether indirect impacts on land use are considered, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The court found that the EPA violated the Endangered Species Act by failing to consult with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service before ruling on biofuel blending obligations for 2019.

Bad weather pushes up Ukrainian wheat export prices

Ukrainian milling wheat export bid prices rose by $3 to $6 a tonne over the past week on uncertainty over the harvest in the Black Sea region because of bad weather, the APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said on Monday. The 2021 harvest’s soft milling wheat with 12.5% protein was traded at $225 to $232 Black Sea free on board (FOB), the consultancy said in a report.

Ukraine 2021 grain harvest 8.6% complete at 5.5 mln T

Ukrainian farms have harvested 5.5 million tonnes of grain from 8.6% of its sowing area with the yield averaging 4.16 tonne per hectare, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.

The volume includes 2.9 million tonnes of barley, harvested from 27.8% of the area with a yield of 4.29 tonne per hectare, and 2.5 million tonnes of wheat with a yield of 4.11 tonnes, the ministry said.

Strategie Grains lifts EU grain crop and export forecasts

Strategie Grains further increased its monthly production forecasts for all three major cereals in the European Union in the current 2021/22 season, which it said will help the bloc to meet higher projected demand on the global market.

However, the consultancy also echoed mounting concerns over the potential impact on grain quality from recent wet weather in southeastern and western areas of the EU.

The consultancy forecast that the 27-country bloc would harvest 133.0 million tonnes of soft wheat in 2021, up from 131.1 million projected in June and more than 14 million tonnes above last year’s crop.

Russia’s grain export estimates for July by Sovecon consultancy

Russia’s July exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 2.1 million tonnes, down from 2.5 million tonnes in June, the Sovecon agriculture consultancy said.

Russia Cuts Wheat Export Tax to $35.20/Ton

Russia’s wheat export customs duty will fall to $35.20/ton, from $39.30/ton currently, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday on its website. NOTE: The rates are set weekly and take effect three working days after publication

India Soy Yield May Drop as Threat of Moisture Loss Looms: Group

Soybean yields may fall due to delayed rains in some areas of major growers Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where sowing started early, according to the Soybean Processors Association of India.

  • “There are concerns of moisture stress in some areas,” the group said in a statement Friday. “If it does not rain soon, it may cause yield loss”
  • NOTE: India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 7% Below Normal as of July 16
  • The crop area may decline 10% from a year earlier in Madhya Pradesh as some farmers switched to pulses and corn, mostly due to higher prices and shortage of good quality seeds
  • Acreage in Maharashtra may rise 15%, increase may be 5% to 10% in other states
  • Still, total crop area in the country may increase by 5% from a year earlier
  • Acreage as of July 15 was 10.4m hectares vs 11.84m hectares last year

Monsoon-Sown Crop Area in India Drops 12% Amid Delayed Rains

Indian farmers have planted monsoon crops such as rice, cotton and soybeans on 61.19 million hectares (151 million acres) of land as of July 16, a decline of 12% from a year earlier, according to the farm ministry.

Area under sugarcane has risen almost 1.7% to 5.37 million hectares so far this year, while cotton has been planted in 9.84 million hectares, down 13% from a year earlier, the ministry said late Friday.

India’s June-September monsoon rains were 7% below average in the week ended July 14, according to the India Meteorological Department. Sowing of monsoon-sown crops normally begins in late May and peaks in July while harvesting starts in late September.

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 8% Below Normal as of July 18

India has so far received 301.6 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 327.9 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on July 18.

  • The northwestern region got 21% below normal rains
  • Rainfall in the southern peninsular region was at 19% above normal
  • Cumulative seasonal rainfall data is compiled by the IMD

Brazil 2021/22 Soybean Planting Seen +2.3%: Safras

Planting area seen at 39.8m ha, a record high, according to a survey from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

  • Yield seen rising to 3,590 kg/ha from 3,542 kg/ha, with total output seen rising 3.7% from previous season to 142.2m mt
  • Strong profitability in 2020 and 2021, combined with continued higher prices in the 2nd half of the year, will likely support the increase in planted area, Safras analyst Luiz Fernando Roque says in the report
  • Summer corn area in Brazil’s center-south region seen growing 1.2% to 4m ha
  • Summer corn yield seen rising to 5,828 kg/ha from 4,973 kg/ha, with output reaching 25.7m mt

Brazil Soybean Sellers are away from trades in the spot market

Soybean producers are away from trades in the spot market in Brazil, avoiding to trade large amounts of the product. These players are focused on the international price rise, which is, in turn, attributed to the lack of rains in soybean producing areas in the United States and to estimates of lower production in Argentina, which has harvested the smallest volume over the last three crops.

Brazilian sellers also expect higher demand in the domestic market in the coming months, given that the industry claims it does not have large inventories. Moreover, producers do not need to make cash flow in this moment and they prefer to allocate the remaining volume from the 2020/21 crop into inventories.

Soybean meal and soybean oil prices also moved up in the Brazilian market. Besides the firm demand, the industry continues to push up quotes due to the low supply of the grain.

Brazil Corn Upward trend continues firm; Index is close to 100 BRL/bag

Due to the low summer production stocks and concerns with productivity of the second crop, producers continue to limit the corn supply in the spot market. In general, only a few trades have been closed, following purchasers’ needs, who end up accepting asking prices.

This scenario sustains the upward trend, and prices have been moving up in Brazil for 15 consecutive days. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) closed at 98.01 BRL (19.12 USD)/bag, upping 2.2% compared to July 1st and 9.4% in the partial of July. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices paid to corn farmers (over-the-counter market) increased 4.7%; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), prices rose 2.2%.

At ports, trades are moving at a slow pace. Exporters offer lower values compared to asking prices, which, in turn, are lower than those in other regions in Brazil.

French Wheat Harvest Trails Last Year; Ratings Worsen: AgriMer

The amount of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition declined to 76% in the week to July 12, slightly below the prior week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

China to Stockpile More Pork for State Reserves on July 21

  • China plans to add 20,000 tons of pork to state reserves on July 21, the third round of purchase following the previous two on July 7 and July 14, the state stockpiler said in a statement on Sunday
  • Hog prices are expected to continue rebounding in near future as govt expands stockpiles and herd numbers stay low in July and August, National Development and Reform Commission official Wan Jinsong says at a press conference on Monday
  • Low herd strength in July-August is due to the decline in number of piglets in January-February: Wan
  • State stockpiling has stabilized market sentiment, with hog prices having bottomed and rebounded more than 15% since June
  • Average hog-to-grain ratio has improved to 5.85:1 after falling below warning threshold of 5:1
  • Wherever necessary, China will step up efforts to prevent large increases or declines in hog and pork prices

China’s Sichuan Finds Swine Fever in Piglets From Another Region

The southwest province of Sichuan detected African swine fever among 89 piglets which were transported by vehicle from outside the province, the provincial agricultural department said in a report on Sunday.

  • All piglets were culled
  • The pigs were transported illegally to the province via a highway section
  • The province has not found any outbreaks of African swine fever among its own hog herds

U.S., China Revive WTO Dispute Over Chinese Agricultural Quotas

The U.S. said China failed to comply with a 2019 World Trade Organization ruling over import restrictions on American agricultural exports and is seeking WTO authorization to retaliate against Chinese goods, according to a document published Friday on the WTO website.

  • The dispute centers on China’s WTO 2001 commitment to set quota levels for wheat, corn and rice that impose a lower tariff rate to imports up to a certain quantity
  • The U.S. won a 2019 WTO dispute that said China failed to adhere to its agricultural quota commitments. China did not appeal the ruling and agreed to bring its measures into WTO compliance by June 29, 2021
  • The new U.S. filing says “China failed to bring its measures into compliance with its WTO obligations within that period”
  • The U.S. is seeking to retaliate against Chinese exports at a level equivalent to the value of the unfilled portion of any tariff-rate quota for wheat, rice, or corn, as set out in China’s WTO commitments
  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture previously said that Beijing’s actions prevented an additional $3.5 billion worth of crops being imported into China
  • In a separate document China says it complied with the 2019 ruling and asked a WTO panel to resolve the dispute in its favor

Argentina creates fund to help ease pain from drought-hit Parana river

Argentina said on Saturday it would dedicate $10.4 million to help ease the pain caused by an ongoing drought that has seen the Parana River, a key transport route for the country’s precious grain crop, wither to its lowest level in 77 years.

  • About 80% of Argentina’s agricultural exports are shipped from Rosario ports and down the Parana, out to the Atlantic.
  • The shallowness of the Parana threatens to cost the country’s grains farmers and exporters almost $315 million over a six-month period through August, the Rosario grains exchange said last week.
  • Argentina is the world’s No. 3 corn exporter and top supplier of soymeal feed used to fatten hogs and poultry from Europe to Southeast Asia.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now