Global Ag News for Dec 13.24

TOP HEADLINES

Western Australia Set for Bigger Wheat Crop as Harvest Nears End

Western Australia is on track for its third-biggest grain harvest on record, according to a monthly report from an industry group, which again raised its forecast for wheat production.

• The state is expected to produce 10.83 million tons of wheat, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia said, compared with a November estimate of 10.33 million tons
• Overall grain production estimates have been exceeded and there’s still a week or two of harvest to go in some areas
• Other GIWA crop estimates from the December report:
  • Barley: 5.09m tons, up from 4.52m tons in November
  • Canola: 2.83m tons, from 2.59m tons in November
  • Oats: 590,000 tons, unchanged from November

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3/4 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 5 1/4; Soymeal down $2.50; Soyoil up 0.01.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1/2 in SRW, up 8 1/2 in HRW, up 6 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil down 0.21.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 3/4 in SRW, up 21 1/2 in HRW, up 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/2; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal down $3.40; Soyoil up 0.94.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.2% in SRW, down 14.9% in HRW, down 19.5% in HRS; Corn is down 8.4%; Soybeans down 23.4%; Soymeal down 26.3%; Soyoil down 11.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 4 yuan; Soymeal down 11; Soyoil down 72; Palm oil up 52; Corn down 9 — Malaysian Palm is down 15.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 15 ringgit (-0.30%) at 4906.

There were changes in registrations (91 Soyoil). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 175 Corn; 312 Soybeans; 861 Soyoil; 1,591 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 12 were: SRW Wheat up 4,447 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,750, Corn up 3,555, Soybeans down 1,199, Soymeal up 12,064, Soyoil up 2,527.

Brazil: Overall good weather conditions continue as scattered wet season showers restarted in central Brazil and fronts continue to come up from Argentina with scattered showers for southern states. This general pattern is set to continue through next week, favoring flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn.

Argentina: A system is moving through the country through Friday with scattered showers, but will favor the west and north. Some of the important areas will stay dry across the central and south, unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans there. Mild temperatures will keep water demand down through next week, but the country needs more rain. The next chance would be mid-late next week but showers look scattered again. While issues are only spotty currently, we could see more trouble spots expanding with the pattern continuing to favor scattered showers instead of widespread heavy rain.

Northern Plains: A burst of cold air continues Thursday, but will then be replaced by warm air on Friday. Several systems will move through the region this weekend through next week and bring down some colder air that pools up in Canada briefly behind each system. But precipitation looks to be light as the storm systems move through the region. Drought areas throughout much of the region would prefer the precipitation to occur and be heavier.

Central/Southern Plains: A system will produce showers across the east on Friday but amounts do not look heavy. Some storm systems next week could bring in some better precipitation but are focusing on the southeast, an area of the region that has some drought and will benefit from it. The southwest looks to be bypassed by most of this precipitation, which has been dry after a very wet November. Nebraska is also forecast to be drier, the spot in the region that has the worst drought.

Midwest: A burst of cold air has settled into the region on Thursday. That has been enough to produce some streaks of light snow and open up the lake-effect snow machine for a couple of days. But warmer air will spread back into the region over the weekend and so will a chance for showers with a system that brings in the warmer air. A couple of systems next week may bring a mix of rain and snow that could help with the ongoing drought situation.

Lower Mississippi: Recent showers in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will give a brief bump to water levels on the river over the next week, but much more is needed. The gauge in Memphis fell below the low water threshold again and that will likely lead to some restrictions for transportation. The pattern may get a little more favorable and active across the basin this weekend and next week, but it is uncertain if it will benefit the river systems to any significant degree.

Europe: Light showers continue across the south for the next few days. Organized rainfall may return to portions of the continent this weekend and several systems look to continue the rainfall through most of the continent through the end of the year. Areas in the northwest where wheat is still active have found conditions that are too wet. Otherwise, the continued rainfall should help to boost soil moisture for areas that have been too dry. Parts of Spain and the northeast could use more rain, but will have some chance to do so.

Black Sea: Part of a system from southern Europe is moving through the region with scattered showers through Friday. Though most of the region has seen winter wheat go dormant, the showers should help to build soil moisture somewhat. More precipitation is expected next week. With how dry the region has been since February, a significant boost in soil moisture is needed for wheat when it breaks dormancy this coming spring.

Australia: Recent rainfall in the east has improved conditions for cotton and sorghum development. The remaining wheat and canola harvest has needed to dodge the rain, but drier conditions this week have allowed soils to drain and fieldwork to resume. The pattern is a bit drier for the rest of the month, with systems bringing through isolated showers instead of organized clusters and lines. While most areas can handle some period of dryness, it is not a favorable look for developing cotton and sorghum.

 

The player sheet for Dec. 12 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 11,000 corn, sellers of 500 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 334,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year that began on Sept. 1.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 112,889 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• NON-GMO SOYBEAN PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has bought about 50,000 metric tons of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs) in an international tender which closed on Friday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s state purchasing agency, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA), issued an international tender to buy an estimated 595,000 metric tons of wheat
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines are tendering to purchase around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 7 and arrive in Japan by March 6, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Dec. 18.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 5, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 705k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Colombia with 258k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Philippines with 92k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 5, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 9.4k tons of the 27k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Brazil 2024-25 Soybean Crop Seen at 166.21M Tons: Conab

Output est. raised from 166.14m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 168.6m tons
• Yield seen higher at 3,509 kg/ha vs 3,508 kg/ha last month
• Area planted raised to 47.37m ha vs 47.357m ha last month
• Corn production est. cut to 119.6m tons vs 119.8m tons

 

Brazil 2025 Soy Crop Forecast Raised to 168.7m Tons: Abiove

Industry group Abiove increases forecast for 2025 Brazilian soybean output to 168.7m tons, up 1 million tons from last month’s estimate.

• That compares with a soybean production of 153.3m this year, according to statement
• Exports in 2025 are seen at 104.4m tons, up from 104.1m tons estimated in November and 98.3m tons for 2024
  • Abiove forecasts cover January-to-December period
• Total processing estimate for 2025 remains at 57m tons, and compares with 54.5m this year
• Ending stocks in 2025 estimated at 9.55m tons, a 7.9% increase from last month’s forecast
  • Ending stocks in 2024 forecast at 4.58m tons
• Soymeal exports estimate for 2025 kept at 22.9m tons, an increase from 22.1m tons in 2024
• Soyoil-export outlook for 2025 increased by 5% over November’s forecast to 1.05m tons, while ending stocks estimate for next year reduced by 16% from last month, to 262,000 tons

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Dec. 12: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 corn and soybean area planted estimates are maintained
• Soybean planting advances to 64.7% complete and corn planting 55.6% complete

 

Argentina’s top corn growing province in need of rainfall for planting

Planting for Argentina’s current corn crop is on hold in parts of Cordoba province, the country’s top producer of the grain, due to a lack of recent rainfall, according to a report from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange released on Thursday.

Agricultural powerhouse Argentina is the world’s No. 3 corn exporter.

The exchange expects the 2024/25 corn crop to cover 6.3 million hectares (15.57 million acres) once planting is complete, the weekly crop report noted.

Planting has progressed “satisfactorily” in some areas of Cordoba, including Tercero Arriba, General San Martin, but the rest of the province is suffering from a lack of adequate rainfall.

The report added that 98% of areas planted with corn are in normal or excellent condition nationally, with planting of the crop over the estimated areas nearly 56% complete.

The exchange also said that about 65% of land set aside for soybeans for the current 2024/25 harvesting season has been planted, covering 18.6 million hectares. It added that 64% of the area planted with wheat for the 2024/25 cycle has been harvested, with total wheat output for the season seen at 18.6 million metric tons.

 

China’s 2024 total grain output rises to record 706 mln tons

China’s total grain production reached a record of more than 700 million metric tons in 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, as Beijing moves to boost output in its quest to achieve food security.

The year’s output in the world’s largest importer of grain stood at 706.5 million tons, after larger harvests of staple rice, wheat and corn, Wei Fenghua, deputy director of the rural department said in the statement.

That was 1.6% higher than 2023’s harvest of 695.41 million tons, Bureau data showed.

“The year’s grain harvest was again bountiful,” Wei said, after China’s regions and authorities strictly adopted the tasks of farmland protection and food security, while overcoming the adverse effects of natural disasters.

China is highly reliant on imports from Brazil and the United States to feed its population of 1.4 billion. In recent years China has stepped up investments in farm machinery and seed technology in the effort to ensure food security.

Rice production in 2024 rose to 207.5 million tons, up 0.5% on the year, while wheat output grew 2.6% to 140.1 million tons, the data showed.

Corn saw a bigger jump at a record 294.92 million tons, up 2.1% from the previous year. Soybeans fell 0.9% to 20.65 million tons.

The bumper harvest was attributed to larger plantings of rice and corn, on top of better yields of rice, wheat and corn.

National sown area of grain was about 294.9 million acres (119.34 million hectares), an increase of 0.3% from the previous year in a fifth consecutive year of expansion, Wei said.

Planting size for rice rose for the first time in four years, expanding 0.2% on the year to 71.66 million acres (29 million hectares). Corn planting was also 1.2% higher at 110.54 million acres (44.74 million hectares).

Soybeans planting size shrank 1.4% to 25.53 million acres (10.33 million hectares). Wheat planting size also declined 0.2% to 58.32 million acres (23.6 million hectares).

Despite the increasing production, China remains dependent on imported supplies of soybean and corn, its agriculture ministry has said.

 

Heavy rains to hit Malaysian palm oil output again in December, says MPOB

Malaysia’s palm oil production is set to fall for the fourth consecutive month in December as heavy rainfall hit harvesting in the world’s second-largest producer of the tropical oil, the industry regulator told Reuters on Friday.

Lower output in Malaysia would curb inventories in the country and further boost benchmark futures, which are already near their highest levels in about 2-1/2 years.

“We estimate a potential reduction of around 5% to 8% in crude palm oil (CPO) production under normal circumstances,” Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir, director-general at the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said.

“However, if severe flooding persists, the reduction could reach as high as 10% to 20%,” he said.

Peninsular Malaysia, particularly its northeastern coast, and southern Thailand have been battered by torrential rains which caused floods that killed dozens of people, and damaged homes, transport links, and thousands of acres of rice crops.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said the rains were far beyond expectations, with some east coast areas getting more than six months’ worth of rainfall between Nov. 26 and 30.

In November, Malaysia’s CPO production declined 9.8% from a month ago to 1.62 million metric tons, the lowest for the month since 2020, the board said earlier this week.

Malaysian Meteorological Department (MET) on Friday said a few states could receive continuous rainfall from Dec. 16 to 19.

The MPOB is closely monitoring the situation as the MET has forecast a second wave of floods due to heavy rainfall, Kadir said.

Heavy rains could further damage plantation infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, making it difficult to harvest and transport fresh fruit bunches from estates to mills, he said.

In December 2023, Malaysia harvested 1.55 million tons of CPO, but production this December could be far lower than last year, said a Malaysian palm oil producer, who did not want to be named.

Palm oil usually trades at a discount to soybean oil and sunflower oil, but is currently at a premium over these competing oils due to limited supplies.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 728k tons in the week ending Dec. 7 from 793k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 26% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 3.8% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $15.64 per short ton, an increase of $0.24 from the previous week

 

Brazil’s chicken meat, pork production to hit records in 2025

Brazil’s chicken meat and pork production and exports are expected to grow in 2025, eclipsing records that were set this years, according to projections released on Thursday by meat lobby ABPA.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

The South American country is the world’s biggest chicken exporter as well as a top pork supplier.

BY THE NUMBERS

Brazil’s chicken meat production is set to reach up to 15.3 million metric tons in 2025, growing as much as 2.7% on a yearly basis, while exports would hit up to 5.4 million tons, a 1.9% rise, ABPA said.

For pork, production could be boosted by as much as 2% to 5.45 million tones next year, with shipments jumping up to 7.4% to 1.45 million tons, the group added.

KEY QUOTES

“Brazil’s economic situation should keep consumption levels sustained in the domestic market, supported by the sector’s continued competitiveness,” ABPA head Ricardo Santin said in a statement.

“On the external front, new markets are expected to be opened in Central American and African countries,” he added.

 

 

 

 

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