Global Ag News For May 6.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Russia seizes stake in farming giant in new high-profile asset grab

• Russian court orders Rusagro stake transferred to state.
• Seizure covers a combined 68% stake worth $886 million.
• Court says founder Vadim Moshkovich broke anti-corruption laws.
• Analysts say state may later sell the stake.

A Russian court ruled on Tuesday that Vadim Moshkovich, the billionaire founder of the exchange-listed agriculture firm Rusagro RAGR.MM, must transfer a stake to the state.

Moshkovich, Russia’s 51st-richest person according to the latest Forbes list of billionaires, was arrested in March 2025 and has been charged with embezzling 30 billion roubles ($400 million). He has pleaded not guilty.

The ruling concerned the stake owned by Moshkovich himself as well as stakes owned by his wife, other relatives and a former CEO of the company, Maxim Basov, for a combined 68% share in the company valued at 67 billion roubles ($886 million).

The court said in a statement that Moshkovich violated anti-corruption laws during his tenure as a member of the Federation Council, the upper house of parliament, from the Belgorod region, bordering Ukraine, where Rusagro now runs several pig farms.

The transfer is one of the highest-profile asset seizures by the state since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, when the state embarked on a drive for the biggest redistribution of property in Russia since privatizations in the 1990s.

According to a 2025 estimate by Moscow law firm NSP, the Russian state has seized more than $50 billion worth of private property, including the assets of foreign companies that left Russia.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 15 1/2 in SRW, down 16 3/4 in HRW, down 1/9 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/2; Soybeans down 6 1/2; Soymeal up $1.50; Soyoil down 1.76.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 24 1/2 in SRW, down 21 in HRW, down 1/5 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal up $2.60; Soyoil down 0.19.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 24 1/2 in SRW, down 20 1/4 in HRW, down 1/5 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans up 9 1/2; Soymeal up $3.00; Soyoil up 0.61.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 18.8% in SRW, up 32.4% in HRW, up 19.1% in HRS; Corn is up 3.9%; Soybeans up 15.3%; Soymeal up 10.4%; Soyoil up 60.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 26) Soybeans down 7 yuan; Soymeal down 9; Soyoil up 78; Palm oil up 74; Corn down 16 — Malaysian Palm is down 133.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 133 ringgit (-2.82%) at 4577.

There were changes in registrations (-68 SRW Wheat, -45 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 273 SRW Wheat contracts; 208 Oats; 393 Corn; 890 Soybeans; 1,506 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 441 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 5 were: SRW Wheat up 698 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,422, Corn up 11,654, Soybeans up 9,873, Soymeal up 4,058, Soyoil down 2,771.

 

Northern Plains: Pockets of isolated showers will be possible into next week. Overall though, conditions should be dry enough for fieldwork. Temperatures are not favorable this week with some frosts and freezes being fairly widespread. A western ridge pressing into the area could bring temperatures up this weekend into next week. Regardless, prospects for good planting conditions are increasing as we get deeper into May.

Central/Southern Plains: A front moving through the region will bring about more widespread precipitation for Tuesday and Wednesday, including some moderate precipitation potential for the driest areas in Nebraska and Kansas, but will also be cold enough for snow in Colorado and adjacent areas in Nebraska and Kansas. Amounts could be very heavy, which would be damaging for winter wheat or any emerging corn and soybeans. Cold temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday could also cause damage. Temperatures will moderate for later this week and next week. Additional chances for showers will flow through the region this weekend and next week, though coverage looks sparse and amounts do not look heavy like the region needs for its deep drought.

Midwest: More scattered showers and cold air will move through the region this week, targeting southern areas with the heaviest precipitation on Tuesday. Additional frosts and freezes may occur later this week, but will need the skies to be clear and winds to be calm in which to do so. Models currently have poor conditions for frost, but those may change later this week. The region will remain active with smaller storm systems continuing to push through the region Friday, this weekend, and next week. Overall, this should produce good conditions for emergence and early growth for crops in the ground, but may cause issues for those trying to plant.

Delta: Recent heavy rain has been improving drought conditions, but large deficits remain. A front and system moving along it will produce more rain and some severe chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional chances will be possible this weekend and next week, especially across the north. This should continue to turn the momentum toward diminishing drought, though this will be a long process even if the rain continues.

Canadian Prairies: A strong cold front moved through on Sunday and has brought in another round of very cold air with frosts and freezes for the next few days, especially east. Western areas will start to warm up by the end of the week, though some cold may linger in the east into next week. Overall, this is leading to more delays in spring planting. Even though precipitation has slowed down significantly, soil moisture is very good in most areas and will help for early growth once the crop is planted.

Brazil: Some rain fell over the far south over the weekend, but missed a lot of the safrinha corn areas in Parana. Some showers are possible from another front moving in on Thursday night through Saturday night. But those showers will be waning as the front moves into central Brazil, typical for this time of year. Hot and dry conditions are unfavorable for filling corn in most areas.

Argentina: Corn and soybean continue to see harvest advancing, though it is a slow process for most of the country. Occasional rain may disrupt harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. Soil moisture has been falling a bit ahead of the winter wheat planting, but conditions are still favorable. A system moving through Wednesday and Thursday should add some moisture to wheat areas as planting starts up this month.

Europe: Scattered showers in the western are spreading eastward this week, getting some needed rain into the dry northeast. Another system will move into the west on Friday, spreading showers eastward this weekend and especially next week. Overall, conditions are favorable for wheat on most of the continent, or improving like areas in the northeast. Though showers may disrupt spring planting a bit, the overall effect is positive.

Black Sea: Periods of showers continue over the next couple of weeks. Rains are coming at a pace that is favorable for most areas, though western portions of Ukraine and Belarus could use more rain. They seem to be the target of more of the systems coming out of Europe.

 

The player sheet for 5/5 had funds: net sellers of 6,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 12,000 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYOIL OR RAPESEED OIL TENDER: Tunisian state agency ONH has issued an international tender to purchase up to 6,000 metric tons of vegetable oils, European traders said on Tuesday. Either crude degummed soyoil or crude degummed rapeseed oil is sought. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is May 7.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday, European traders said. A new wheat tender is expected to be issued in the coming days anticipated to close on May 12, traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is May 6.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy milling wheat, European traders said. OAIC indicated a nominal volume of 50,000 metric tons, but the agency usually buys much more. The deadline for offers is on May 6.
• SOYMEAL TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal, European traders said on Wednesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending May 1 are based on four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.039m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.873m bbl vs 25.881m a week ago

 

Crop tour projects Oklahoma winter wheat crop at 47.799 million bushels

A group of Oklahoma crop experts on Tuesday projected Oklahoma’s 2026 winter wheat harvest at 47.799 million bushels, with an average yield of 23.11 bushels per acre, following an annual tour of the state, said Mike Schulte, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission.

The estimates were based on field assessments conducted by Oklahoma State University Extension educators, as well as private crop consultants and area agronomists, said Schulte.

The estimates were sharply lower than the 10-year yield average of 94.499 million bushels in Oklahoma, among the top U.S. wheat-producing states. The state’s harvest is projected to be less than the 106.4 million bushels that the U.S. Department of Agriculture says were harvested in 2025.

Farmers in Oklahoma planted 6% more acres of winter wheat in 2026 than they did a year earlier, the USDA reported in March.

The USDA is scheduled to release its first production forecasts of the U.S. 2026 winter wheat harvest on Tuesday, May 12.

“Due to severe drought, crop predictions are planned for an extremely poor crop,” Schulte said.

The U.S. Southern Plains has been hit with the worst weather conditions since a 2023 drought forced widespread abandonment of wheat fields ahead of the harvest that year.

This week, the U.S. Drought Monitor said that western Oklahoma and western Texas “remained critically dry, leading to poor rangeland, pasture, and winter wheat conditions.” Statewide, winter wheat in Texas was rated 56% very poor to poor on April 26, along with 45% in Oklahoma.

Wheat plants were developing faster than usual in warmer-than-average temperatures, threatening yields.

Members of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission were planning to start harvesting on May 15, three weeks ahead of schedule, Schulte said.

Lacking adequate moisture, Schulte said, “agronomists have further concerns the final filling of the crop will continue to be hindered, making overall yields extremely poor.”

The Oklahoma Wheat Commission’s forecast precedes an annual industry tour of fields in top producer Kansas, set for next week.

 

Palm oil rally seen continuing on biodiesel demand boost, analyst Mistry says

Malaysian palm oil prices are likely to rise about 12% to 5,200 ringgit ($1,316) a metric ton by mid-July, as higher energy prices from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran boost biodiesel demand and tighten supplies, analyst Dorab Mistry said on Wednesday.

The benchmark palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.34% to 4,647 ringgit at the midday break on Wednesday, though it is up about 15% since the war began in late February.

Palm oil futures are expected to extend gains to around 5,000 ringgit by June and potentially reach 5,200 ringgit by mid-July on biodiesel demand, said Mistry, the director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International.

One of the most closely watched analysts of edible oils, Mistry’s forecasts for supply and prices often move markets.

Global oil prices hit a four-year high of more than $126 a barrel last week. This rally has made the use of vegetable oils for biofuel production more attractive.

Refined fuels like diesel and gasoline rose more sharply than crude after the Iran war began, Mistry said.

As a result, the spread between fossil diesel and palm biodiesel narrowed, cutting subsidy requirements and – in some markets – making palm biodiesel cheaper than fossil diesel, he said.

“Rising energy prices prompted Indonesia to reinstate its B50 palm biodiesel programme from 1 July 2026,” Mistry said. “Biodiesel mandates are being increased in other countries like Malaysia, Thailand and others too.”

Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil producer, said it would raise the mandatory blending rate for palm-based biodiesel to 50% from 40% on July 1.

Palm oil competes with soyoil, which has rallied in recent weeks as top producers – the U.S., Brazil and Argentina – increase its use for biofuels.

“The U.S. has announced its long-awaited jumbo biodiesel programme for 2026 and 2027, which has, as expected, lit a fuse under soybean oil futures,” Mistry said.

Higher edible oil prices are leading to demand destruction in key consuming countries like India, where stocks have fallen and imports will need to be stepped up from June, he said.

 

Ukraine Says Egypt Allowed Vessel to Unload ‘Stolen’ Wheat

Egypt permitted the vessel Asomatos to unload 26.9k tons of “stolen” wheat from the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia despite a formal legal assistance request from Ukraine’s Prosecutor General four days prior, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha says on X.

• This is a fourth instance of Russian “grain laundering” through Egyptian ports since April
• Cargo exported by sanctioned co. Agro-Frigat via occupied Crimea
• NOTE: In early April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah El-Sisi had told him Egypt would stop getting grain that originates in territory Russia has seized from Ukraine

 

USDA Says It’s Addressing Lower Farmer Response Rates — Market Talk

(Dow Jones) — 1000 ET – The USDA is attempting to address the lower response rate of farmers when it comes to government surveys. The agency tells WSJ that through measures such as “technology modernization” and “engaging stakeholders through structured feedback,” the USDA hopes to build its projections in documents like the WASDE report. “It’s important that we hear from America as we continue to meet our nation’s evolving needs,” says the USDA. The agency has come under fire following a recent New York Times story on low farmer participation in crop surveys. Fewer farmer responses means a greater chance for outliers to move averages disproportionately.

 

Egypt imposes $90 per ton nitrogen fertiliser export duty for three months

Egypt has imposed a temporary export duty on nitrogen fertilisers, according to a decision published on Monday in the official gazette, amid shifting global markets.

The Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade set the export duty at $90 per metric ton, or its equivalent in Egyptian pounds. The measure takes effect on Tuesday and remains in place for three months.

The decision follows a separate move earlier this week in which Egypt raised natural gas prices for energy-intensive industries, including fertilisers, petrochemicals, steel and cement, as part of broader efforts to restructure industrial energy pricing.

The fertiliser sector is one of Egypt’s key industries.

Egypt’s energy import bill ​has ⁠more than doubled, while monthly natural gas import costs have nearly tripled since the ⁠outbreak ​of the U.S.-Israeli war with ​Iran, with increased reliance on LNG imports or regional producers.

 

Brazil Nears Its China Beef Quota in Big Shift to Trade Flow

The world’s top beef exporter Brazil is close to reaching its annual quota for shipments to its biggest buyer China, a situation that’s set to redraw trade flows at a time when global consumers are facing higher meat prices.

China sought to protect its domestic farmers and producers at the start of 2026 by imposing beef import quotas. That’s spurred Brazilian meatpackers to rush goods to the Asian nation’s ports, and the limit is now looking to be met before the year is half over, according to analysts and industry data.

With a 55% tariff on any additional volumes, the looming quota fulfillment will likely bring Brazil’s trade with China to a halt. The scenario has presented a challenge for Brazil’s meat industry, with expectations for a slowdown in slaughtering.

“This is something the supply chain has never had to deal with before, and it’s causing stress in the market,” said João Otávio Figueiredo, an analyst at consultancy Datagro.

It may be good news for consumers outside of China, however, as meatpackers seek other markets. That could boost supplies and potentially ease prices that have surged to record highs amid strong demand and limited supply.

Shipments from Brazil to the US will be key. Demand has been strong on the back of a massive cattle shortage and elevated beef prices in North America.

Because it can take about 60 days between animals being slaughtered in Brazil and arrival of a beef cargo in China, Brazilian beef exporters group Abiec signaled that as soon as mid-May the local plants may no longer process beef targeting Chinese markets. Other more conservative forecasts like the one from Datagro see that happening in June.

“We either find new destinations – and that’s not something that happens overnight – or we will have to slow down production,” Abiec executive president Roberto Perosa told journalists Tuesday. Exports could fall as much as 10% this year if no other meaningful market opens up for Brazil, he added.

China has imported more than 510,000 tons of beef from Brazil in the first three months of the year, according to customs data. That is equivalent of 46% of the quota. By the end of April that percentage will have reached 65%, according to people familiar with the pace of shipments out of Brazil. The people didn’t want to be identified as official data from Chinese customs for April isn’t yet available.

That’s already pressuring prices of live cattle in Brazil, with futures traded in Sao Paulo trimming gains after a rally in the start of year. Ranchers are still withholding heifers in a cyclical move that tends to limit cattle supplies, but the perspective of a halt in beef exports to China is easing some of the pressure.

While no other country is big enough to replace China, Abiec’s Perosa said there are still hopes that Japan will allow imports of Brazilian beef sometime this year. Japanese sanitary authorities recently visited Brazil, but it’s still unclear if they will make any other requirements before allowing purchases.

 

Bird Flu May Spread Through Air on California Farms, Study Finds

Air and wastewater may help spread bird flu on California dairy farms, according to a study that points to more transmission routes than previously understood.

Researchers sampling 14 infected farms found the H5N1 virus in the air during milking, in cows’ breath and in farm wastewater, pointing to multiple possible routes of transmission beyond contact with contaminated milk.

The findings, published Tuesday in PLOS Biology, add to concerns that the outbreak in US cattle could expose farm workers and other animals. H5N1 is spreading globally in birds and spilling into mammals including cattle, elephant seals and sea lions. Human cases remain uncommon and are largely tied to close contact with infected poultry and other farm animals. Scientists worry ongoing spread in mammals could help the virus evolve toward more efficient human transmission.

“Our data confirm the presence of infectious H5N1 virus in the air and reclaimed farm wastewater sites,” Seema Lakdawala, a microbiologist at Emory University who co-led the study, said in a statement. “In addition, we observed high viral loads and H5 antibodies in the milk of cows, including those without clinical signs, suggesting that multiple modes of H5N1 transmission likely exist on farms.”

A researcher collects a sample of a dairy cow’s exhaled breath in California.

The study also found many infected cows showed no obvious signs of illness, indicating the virus may be spreading undetected within herds.

Multiple Sources

The H5N1 flu virus has been reported in more than 700 dairy herds in California alone and has spread to at least 16 states since it was first identified in cattle in the US in 2024. Idaho reported five infected herds in April — the latest detections in livestock.

Scientists have largely focused on raw milk as the main route of transmission between cows and to people. But the new research suggests that’s only part of the picture.

“Detection of infectious virus in the air and waste streams on farms was surprising but highlights that there is a considerable amount of infectious virus on farms and multiple sources of infection exist,” the authors said.

The results point to widespread contamination on affected farms, raising the risk of exposure for workers through inhalation or contact with contaminated surfaces.

“Targeted interventions in the dairy parlors to reduce the amount of aerosols in the air and inactivation of ‘sick milk’ prior to disposal will provide additional barriers to infection of farm workers and likely other farm animals,” the researchers said.

The study was based on environmental sampling rather than tracking infections directly, and more research is needed to confirm how the virus spreads, they said.

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Weakens in April: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 121 points in April from 127 in March, according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component declined by 11 points from March
• Future expectations down by 4 points

 

 

 

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