Global Ag News for Aug 17.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/2 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 8 1/4; Soymeal up $0.33; Soyoil up 0.28.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 3/4 in SRW, down 9 3/4 in HRW, down 13 in HRS; Corn is down 29 3/4; Soybeans down 61 1/4; Soymeal down $1.84; Soyoil down 1.35.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 22 1/2 in SRW, down 7 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 10; Soybeans down 79 1/4; Soymeal down $19.10; Soyoil up 0.68.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3% in SRW, up 10% in HRW, down -7% in HRS; Corn is up 4%; Soybeans up 10%; Soymeal up 6%; Soyoil up 22%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans down 80 yuan; Soymeal down 6; Soyoil up 78; Palm oil down 30; Corn down 9 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 16 ringgit (+0.38%) at 4198.

There were changes in registrations (-14 Soybeans, -50 Soymeal). Registration total: 2,653 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 149 Soyoil; 71 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 16 were: SRW Wheat down 1,757 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,939, Corn up 1,680, Soybeans up 3,869, Soymeal up 2, Soyoil up 2,598.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday, mostly east. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal west and near to below normal east through Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal west and near to below normal east Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers moving south through Thursday. Isolated showers northeast Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures near normal Sunday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Aug. 16 had funds: net sellers of 7,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,000 corn, sellers of 12,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 228,606 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year that begins Sept. 1.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender that closed on Tuesday
• VEGETABLE OILS PURCHASE: Egypt’s state buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), bought 47,000 tonnes of soyoil in its local purchasing tender on Tuesday, according to a statement by Egypt’s supply ministry. The authority had said it was seeking 3,000 tonnes of soyoil and 1,000 tonnes of sunflower oil for delivery Oct. 1-25 and/or Nov. 1-12, 2022. GASC usually sets an international tender along with a local production tender but did not do so this week.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency Government Trading Corporation issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT AND RICE TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer issued tenders to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 50,000 tonnes of rice with both to be sourced from the United States only
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Nov. 30 and arrive in Japan by Jan. 26 via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Aug. 19.

 ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 12 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen unchanged from the previous week at 1.022m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.28m bbl vs 23.256m a week ago

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 1.3%

July placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.71m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of ten analysts.

• That would be the fifth monthly y/y decline in a row
• Feedlot herd as of Aug. 1 seen rising by 0.8% y/y to 11.16m head
• Marketings seen falling 2.7% y/y

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching Up To 5.738 Million Tns In August – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING UP TO 5.738 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 5.667 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING UP TO 8.089 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS UP TO 7,882 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.957 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 1.991 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 14% Y/y; Data Remains Incomplete

EU soft-wheat exports during the season that began July 1 reached 3.58m tons as of Aug. 14, compared with 3.14m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

• NOTE: The data may be incomplete, the commission says
• Top destinations are Morocco (796k tons), Algeria (729k tons) and Egypt (305k tons)
• EU barley exports at 1.23m tons, versus 2.13m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports at 3.59m tons, versus 1.78m tons a year earlier
• NOTE: The next reports will likely be issued on Aug. 22 and 29, commission says

Ukraine Lacks Storage for 10M-15M Tons of Grain: Agro-Food Group

Farmers in Ukraine lack storage for the grain harvest and need additional space to stock between 10m-15m tons, Roman Slaston, director general of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, said at a briefing on Tuesday.

• Food and Agriculture Organization is to provide polyethylene sleeves, enough to store 4m tons of grain
• Significant areas of corn will be harvested in winter due to lack of storage
• Sowing of winter rapeseed and wheat is underway; winter wheat sowing will be in full swing in two weeks
• Ukrainian farmers need state support to complete sowing

Ukraine Crop-Export Corridor Shipped 563k Tons in 1H August

Twenty-one agricultural vessels carrying 563k tons of crops were authorized to move from Ukraine’s ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi from Aug. 1-15, according to an emailed statement from the Joint Coordination Centre that oversees the export corridor.

• Total includes 451k tons of corn, 42k tons of wheat and 50k tons of sunflower meal
• Top three destinations were Turkey, Iran and South Korea
• All inbound and outbound ships inspected have so far been cleared
• “As part of its responsibilities, the JCC has been closely monitoring the inbound and outbound movement of vessels through the maritime humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea”
• “It has so far observed on two occasions vessels deviating from the corridor and it has responded appropriately by contacting captains and advising them to follow the coordinates”

Ukraine Crop-Export Pace Unclear; Russia Wheat Crop Swells: UAC

Grain shipments from Ukraine’s newly reopened Black Sea ports are still in a trial phase and market participants are assessing prospects going forward, Kyiv-based analyst UkrAgroConsult said in a note.

• “UkrAgroConsult cannot yet confidently say that Ukraine will be able to fully realize its grain-export potential”
• Most buyers are not yet ready to purchase grain on an FOB basis; there could be an increase in C&F contracts soon, which would shield buyers from transportation risks
• If seaborne exports continue at a similar or better pace than last week, Ukraine might again become a player in international crop tenders

ON RUSSIA:

• This year’s Russia wheat harvest is now seen at 86.4m tons, up 1m tons from a prior estimate
• Outlook takes into account favorable weather that aided yields across Russia’s grain belt and latest harvest data
• Meanwhile, barley and corn output prospects are down slightly

Russian Wheat Exports Remain at ‘Painfully Slow’ Pace: SovEcon

This year’s Russian wheat harvest is now seen at 94.7m tons, up from a prior outlook for 90.9m tons, research firm SovEcon says in an emailed note.

• Outlook is based on record or near-record wheat yields for most regions of the Center, Volga Valley and South after good weather
• “This is likely to have a limited impact on the global market as 2022/23 Russian exports remain painfully slow,” says Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon
• Combined exports in July and August are estimated at 5.8m tons, down 28% y/y and 22% below the average pace
• The slow start for shipments amid a huge harvest “doesn’t bode well for the domestic market and Russian farmers”
• Barley crop estimate raised to 20.6m tons, from 20.2m tons
• Corn crop estimated upped to 15.1m tons, from 14.7m tons

Oilseed Meal Exports From India Collapse 47% M/m in July: Group

Shipments sank to 227,247 tons in July, from 431,840 tons a month earlier, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said.

• NOTE: Exports totaled 191,663 tons in July last year
• Rapeseed meal shipments 144,308 tons in July vs 308,549 tons in June, association said in statement
• Soymeal exports 14,618 tons vs 32,194 tons
• Rice-bran extract sales 45,225 tons vs 64,025 tons
• Castorseed meal exports 22,401 tons vs 26,365 tons
• Oilseed-meal exports climbed to 1.25m tons in four months to July 31, from 927,555 tons a year earlier, helped mainly by rapeseed-meal shipments

Manitoba crop report

Harvest has started in winter wheat and fall rye, with a good portion of those crops already combined. Reported yields are average for both crops. Crop condition looks good to very good in most parts of the province, pea harvest has begun in the northwest region, and widespread harvest is expected to begin for spring cereals in about two weeks, with some early barley coming off in the past few days. Insect concerns have popped up in localized spots across Manitoba, lygus bugs in the Swan Valley, and soybean aphids, cereal aphids, and grasshoppers throughout Manitoba. Soybean aphids have reached economic thresholds in some crops, while many populations remain below thresholds but should be monitored closely. The Manitoba Hay Listing Service is active; producers with extra feed or looking for feed are encouraged to list their available supplies for sale.

Malaysia Keeps Crude Palm Oil Export Tax at 8% in September

Gazetted price for crude palm oil at 3,907.51 ringgit a ton, which incurs the maximum export tax of 8%, according to a statement from the customs department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.

• NOTE: Tax has been kept at 8% since Jan. 2021, following government exemption in July-December 2020
• NOTE: Export duty structure starts at 3% when FOB prices for CPO are in the 2,250-2,400 ringgit per ton range
• Maximum tax rate is 8% when prices are above 3,450 ringgit per ton

US to Provide UN $68m to Buy and Export Ukrainian Grain

• US will provide more than $68 million in additional funding to the UN World Food Program to purchase and export as much as 150,000 metric tons of Ukrainian wheat to help respond to the global food crisis, US Agency for International Development says in a statement.
• The first humanitarian grain shipment was due to leave the Black Sea via Ukraine’s Yuzhny Port on Aug. 16

India’s Wheat Output Estimate Little Changed From May Forecast

Wheat output in India probably totaled 106.84m tons in 2021-22, compared with an earlier estimate of 106.41m, according to the farm ministry.

• NOTE: The world’s second-biggest wheat grower produced record 109.6m tons in 2020-21; the crop is sown in October-November and harvested in March-April
• Total food grain production is estimated to have climbed to 315.72m tons in 2021-22, from 310.74m a year earlier, according to the ministry’s fourth advance estimate
  • That compares with an earlier prediction of 314.5m tons
• Rice output may have risen in 2021-22 to record 130.29m tons, from 124.37m year earlier
  • Production of pulses seen at 27.69m tons vs 25.46m
  • Corn output probably climbed to 33.62m tons from 31.65m
  • Sugar cane harvest likely at 431.81m tons vs 405.4m tons
  • Cotton production seen falling to 31.2m bales of 170kg each, from 35.25m
• Production of oilseeds is estimated to have risen to 37.7m tons from 35.95m tons in 2020-21
  • Rapeseed output seen at record 11.75m tons vs 10.21m year earlier
  • Soybean harvest likely at about 13m tons vs 12.61m tons
  • Peanut production forecast at 10.11m tons vs 10.24m

China takes action to alleviate drought as record heatwave continues

China is taking emergency action to bring more water to the drought-hit basin of the Yangtze river, deploying relief funds, seeding clouds and developing new supply sources as a record-breaking heatwave damages crops and livestock.

The Ministry of Water Resources said in a notice on Wednesday that drought throughout the Yangtze river basin was “adversely affecting drinking water security of rural people and livestock, and the growth of crops”.

It urged regions to make accurate assessments of drought-affected areas and devise plans to maintain water supplies, including temporary water transfers, the development of new sources and the extension of pipe networks.

To boost downstream supplies, the Three Gorges Dam, China’s biggest hydropower project, will also increase water discharges by 500 million cubic metres over the next 10 days, it said on Tuesday.

Some livestock from drought-hit areas had been temporarily relocated to other regions, the Ministry of Finance said earlier this week, adding that it would issue 300 million yuan ($44.30 million) in disaster relief.

On Wednesday, central China’s Hubei province became the latest to announce an extensive weather modification programme, deploying planes to fire silver iodide rods into the clouds to induce rainfall.

Other regions on the Yangtze have also launched “cloud seeding” programmes, but with cloud cover too thin, operations in some drought-ravaged parts of the Yangtze basin have remained on standby.

China’s heatwave has now lasted 64 days, making it the longest since full records began in 1961, state media said on Wednesday, citing data from the National Climate Center.

The number of weather stations recording temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius (104°F) and above has reached 262, also the highest. Eight have hit 44 degrees Celsius.

Persistently high temperatures would continue in the Sichuan Basin and large parts of central China until Aug. 26, the center forecast.

A “special case” of high pressure from the West Pacific subtropical high, stretching across much of Asia, is likely to be the cause of the extreme heat, said Cai Wenju, climate researcher with CSIRO, Australia’s national scientific research institute.