Global Ag News For Apr 13


Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 5 cents; HRW up 2; HRS Wheat up 3, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal unchanged, and Soyoil up 85 to 65 points.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 42 yuan in soybeans, up 4 in Corn, down 62 in Soymeal, down 50 in Soyoil, and down 144 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 25 ringgit at 3,675 (basis June) at midsession with gains limited by rising inventories, output.

U.S. Weather Forecast: Last evening’s GFS model run was more aggressive with a weather disturbance April 22 – 24 in the central U.S. compared to the midday GFS model run. This led to the precipitation increases in areas such as the Delta, West Texas, southwest Oklahoma, South Dakota, and the western Corn Belt such as Iowa. The rain would be beneficial in most of these areas, and some rain is likely with the exception of possibly South Dakota.

South America Weather Forecast: In Brazil, erratic shower and thunderstorm activity through the next seven days will still provide some relief from recent dryness and promote some increase of topsoil moisture. Greater rainfall will be needed though and the erratic nature of the rain will lead to some areas that get better improvement than others. Conditions in Argentina will still be mostly good.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 11,000 contracts of Corn; net sold 12,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 6,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 426,000 Corn; net long 136,000 Soybeans; long 59,000t Soymeal, and; net long 65,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 4,700 contracts; HRW Wheat down 5,000; Corn up 35; Soybeans down 55 contracts; Soymeal down 625 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,700.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 40 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 60; Soyoil 1,118 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 235.

Tender Activity—Japan seeks 90,000t optional-origin wheat—Algeria seeks 50,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea bought 66,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Egypt seeks 30,000t optional-origin soyoil, 10,000t sunoil—


U.S. Winter Wheat headed was 5% versus 4% last week, 6% a year ago, 7% average.

U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 53% good to excellent (trade estimate was 53%) versus 53% a week ago and 62% a year ago; 30% fair (31% last week, 28% a year ago); 17% poor to very poor (16% last week, 10% a year ago).

U.S. Spring Wheat planted was 11% (trade estimate was 8%) versus 3% last week, 5% a year ago, 6% average.

U.S. Corn planted was 4% (trade estimate was 6%) versus 2% a week ago, 3% last year, and 3% average.

U.S. Oats planted were 39% versus 23% a week ago, 31% last year, and 33% average.

U.S. Oats emerged were 24% versus 18% a week ago, 24% last year, and 26% average.


For the week ending Apr 8th, Wheat exports are running unchanged versus a year ago, unchanged a week ago and versus the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year

—Corn up 82% (up 84% last week); USDA up 50%

—Soybeans up 70% (up 71% last week) with the USDA up 36% on the year

Fields across the Canadian Prairies and the U.S. Northern Plains are among the driest on record, raising production risks in one of the world’s key growing regions for canola and spring wheat. As planting season begins, the dusty soils generate fears that seeds will fail to germinate or yield smaller crops in a year when demand for canola already far outstrips supply. Unusually strong wheat exports to China for animal feed have also lowered global supplies of the main ingredient in bread and pasta.

China raised the floor price for wheat auctioned from state reserves in an effort to cool demand for the food grain. The floor price for an absolute majority of wheat put out for weekly sale from state reserves was raised to 2,350 yuan ($359.12) a tonne, up from 2,290 yuan set in 2019.

China’s imports of soybeans, as well as grains like corn and wheat, soared in the first quarter, boosted by strong demand from the livestock sector. Soybean imports almost doubled in March alone year-on-year as cargoes of beans from top exporter Brazil cleared customs after delays. Meanwhile first-quarter corn and wheat shipments jumped on elevated domestic corn prices amid a supply shortage.

China brought in 7.77 million tonnes of the oilseed in March, up 82% from a year ago. More than 5 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans were loaded in January for shipment to China, some of which arrived in March

China brought in 6.727 million tonnes of corn in the quarter, rocketing more than fivefold from the previous year, while quarterly wheat imports more than doubled from a year ago to 2.925 million tonnes.

China’s soybean imports in the first three months of the year came in at 21.18 million tonnes, up 19% from 17.79 million tonnes in the previous year

A recent round of African swine fever outbreaks, however, has wiped out at least 20% of the breeding herd in northern China, according to some estimates, curbing demand for soymeal. Soymeal futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have fallen 10% since they hit record highs in January on worries over demand due to the outbreaks.

China’s national weekly soybean meal inventories as of April 13, were at 797,900 tonnes, up from 477,000 tonnes end of January.

Meanwhile, soybean stocks fell slightly to 4.4 million tonnes from levels at the beginning of the year.

China imported 1.02 million tonnes of meat in March, the highest monthly volume since at least January 2020, as the world’s biggest meat buyer continued to stock up to fill shortages at home. Imports rose 11.4% from 919,000 tonnes in March 2020, the data showed, even after local pork prices fell sharply since the start of the year. Imports for the first three months of 2021 reached 2.63 million tonnes, up 20.8% versus the same period of last year.

Farmers in Brazil, who planted their second corn outside the ideal climate window, are bracing for potential yield losses across Center-South states, AgRural, an agribusiness consultancy, said. At the end of March, AgRural reduced its estimate of second corn production to 80.1 million tonnes. Brazil’s second corn is planted after soybeans are harvested, but delays to collect the oilseed pushed back plantings. Through last Thursday, soy farmers had harvested 85% of their area, AgRural said, below the 89% at the same time a year ago.

Brazilian beef-packers are halting production in selected locations, as a rise in costs that cannot be passed through to consumer prices have their squeezed margins. Multiple small, medium and large production facilities have gone through stoppages or remain idle as they adjust supply to demand. The price of cattle has risen by about 60% over a year and the industry was able to pass through 40% of costs at best. The 15-kilo arroba, a Brazilian benchmark for cattle prices, hit a historical high of 320 reais ($55.95) in recent days, boosted by low animal supplies and heated demand for Brazilian beef exports, particularly from China.

Russian wheat export prices rose last week, with higher prices in Chicago and Paris helping to halt a five-week decline, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said. Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in April was at $247 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week.

Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 20.81 million tonnes by April 11, data published by the European Commission showed. That was down from 27.56 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season

European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 11.50 million tonnes by April 11, data published by the European Commission showed. That compared with 11.27 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season.

European wheat futures in Paris fell on Monday, following a fall in U.S. markets, but losses were limited by concern a severe cold snap in France last week could have damaged crops more than initially anticipated. Most-active September milling wheat was down 0.2% or 0.50 euro at 199.00 euros ($237.03) a tonne.

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the April 1-10 period are estimated up 2.8% on month at 344,039 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now