Written Commentary
Ag Market View for October 7.24
October 7, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. 4 day uptrend continues. SX is up 6 cents and near 12.28. SMZ is near 321.8. BOZ is near 62.09. CZ is unch and near 5.33. WZ is up 6 cents and near 7.43. KWZ is up 7 cents and near 7.56. MWZ is up 9 cents and near 9.76.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Gold is higher. Copper testing contract highs. China Evergrande made an interest payment. Crude is higher and over $83. Smell of inflation is still in the air. GSI commodity Index higher.
US soybean board crush margins highest in 3 years. Soyoil pct of crush highest since 1988. China soybean crush down 13 pct. Energy crisis shutting down plants. No new US soybean sales. US soybean harvest 60 pct vs 73 ly and 55 average. Farmer slow sellers. US cash basis firm. Weekly US soybean exports were 84 mil bu. Season to date exports 217 mil bu or down 50 pct vs ly.
Pakistan cut vegoil imports duty 50 pct. Dalian soybean, soymeal lower. Corn, palmoil, soyoil higher. Brazil weather favorable. Rains central and north. Drier south. Soybean plantings 25 pct. Matif rapeseed and Canada canola prices higher. 4 days higher but still below contract highs.
US corn harvest 52 pct vs 41 average. Higher ethanol margins and low US export prices supportive. Argentina weather dry. Argentina exports prices +30 cents US. Dalian corn futures 2 month high. China Oct-Sep corn imports 29.6 mmt vs USDA 28. Corn+sorg+barley imports 50.3 mmt vs USDA 47.7. Matif corn futures off contract high. Better harvest weather. Imports still low. Corn $30 below wheat.
US winter wheat 70 pct planted. 2022 ratings next week. EU exports ahead of supply. Prices must rally. US HRW 2022 export prices completive to buyers. Russia wheat exports prices higher. Higher export tax.
SMZ bottoming near 310. CZ bounce near Key 5.35 resistance. SX and WZ up for 4th straight day.
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