Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 6 cents and near 12.96. SMZ is near 387.8. BOZ is near 50.03. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.82. WZ is unch and near 5.79. KWZ is down 2 cents and near 6.92. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 7.49. US Dollar is lower but did test new highs near 106.84. Crude is lower but did test $95.US Fed policy of higher and longer rates also being used by Crude analyst. US stocks are lower There is still concern over China property market, US shutdown and higher inflation.
Soybean futures are lower. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Some buying before next weeks China Golden Holiday. SX-SF spread widening on lower US exports. Brazil farmer increased soybean sales on lower Real. Central Brazil could see some rains but long range forecast is dry. Argentina is dry and slowing farmers selling. EU imposing new rule as of Oct 1 that Brazil needs to show certification that Brazil soymeal exports are no deforestation origin. If true, this could increase demand for US soymeal exports. Weekly US export sales are estimated near 500-1,200 mt.
Corn futures are slightly lower. US Midwest should be dry and should help harvest. Yields are variable but improving. Brazil has rains but 2 week forecast is dry. Brazil farmer increased cash sales on sharply lower real. US farmer remains slow seller of corn with ethanol margins positive. US corn export outlook remains low due to higher SA exports, talk of higher Ukraine exports and US river navigation problems. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 500-1,000 mt.
Wheat futures are lower. Wednesday sharp selloff linked to Ukraine offering wheat at Egypt tender and higher US Dollar. 7 wheat vessels have not left Ukraine. It remains warm and dry across S Russia and Ukraine wheat crops area. US south plains is dry. Weekly US export sales are est at 250-500 mt. KWZ is at 2 year low.
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