ADMIS News
Ag Market View for Sept 9.2026
September 9, 2026
COCOA
December Cocoa was mostly steady early Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since August 25 on Tuesday. West Africa has may have experienced an uptick in rain over the past week, but conditions remain are drier than normal. World Weather Inc. says El Nino’s persistence is gradually allowing its negative influence around the world to expand and deepen. So far the single greatest problem area is Indonesia, where all cocoa production areas have been impacted by dryness and excessive heat, with no significant relief expected anytime soon. Dryness has also begun to evolve in west-central Africa as well. Ivory Coast and Ghana 30-day rainfall totals have been well below normal. These areas are often influenced by persistent El Nino conditions and the odds are relatively high that dryness will be an ongoing issue into the fourth quarter of this calendar year. So far, conditions in Ecuador, Brazil and Colombia have not been nearly as adverse as that in Indonesia, although rain has become more erratic and light. Reuters reports that Ivorian cocoa traders, cooperatives and buying agents are struggling to use a new national traceability system introduced ahead of incoming European Union rules banning imports of commodities grown on recently deforested land. Those rules are supposed to go into effect starting January 1. Ivory Coast nation exports around 70% of its cocoa to Europe. Problems with the system could slow purchases and deliveries at the start of the 2026/27 season, raising the risk of supply disruptions through October and November.
SUGAR
October Sugar continues to consolidate its recent gains. The rally in crude oil limits downside pressure, but some of the panic over India’s supply shortage has abated. The funds are heavily long which leaves the market vulnerable to selling pressure. A Bloomberg story on Monday suggested that Thailand’s sugar output drop at least 17% in the coming season. A director at Thai Sugar Millers Corp. said production is likely to fall below 10 million metric tons in 2026/27 (starts in October), down from 12 million in 2025/26. They blamed lower rainfall in the northeast and farmers switching to cassava, which was commanding better prices. Indian sugar refineries will sell around 250,000 tons in the domestic market, an industry executive said on Wednesday.
COFFEE
December Coffee was higher early Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since July 6 on Tuesday. The market broke below both the 200-day moving average and the 0.618 retracement of the rally from the June 9 low to last month’s high yesterday and overnight but are back above those levels this morning. The market saw a steep selloff after Cecafe revised its Brazilian August export data higher in late August, and that was confirmed by Brazilian government data last week that showed the August exports were up 45% from a year ago. Brazilian exports have apparently picked up sharply after a slow start due to too much rain in June and early July. Prior to those rain interruptions, nearby coffee prices had fallen to their lowest levels since September 2024 on expectations of a bumper Brazilian arabica crop. Now that the crop is arriving, the question will be how much damage was done due to bean droppage during the rains, both in quality and quantity
COTTON
December Cotton was slightly higher early Wednesday but struggled to push above the 21-day moving average for the third straight session, despite another setback int US crop conditions. The market may be biding time until the USDA supply/demand report is released on Friday. The weekly Crop Progress report released late Monday showed 34% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent as of September 6, down from 39% the previous week, 54% a year ago, and the five-year average for this date of 44%. Of the top 5 states, Mississippi declined the most at 52% G/E, down from 63% last week and a five-year average of 58%. The report also showed 40% of the US crop had bolls open as of September 6, up from 29% the previous week and 38% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 38%. 96% of the crop was setting bolls, in line with a year ago and the average
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