Written Commentary
Ag Market View for October 7.24
October 7, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
New Month. Grains are mixed. SX is down 6 cents and near 12.86. SMZ is near 344.1. BOZ is near 58.46. CZ is down 1 cent near 5.32. WZ is up 3 cents and near 7.25. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 7.15. MWZ is up 6 cents and near 9.10.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed. Since Aug 20, US Dollar is down from 93.71 to 92.41. Crude is mixed to higher. Since Aug 23, Crude oil has rallied from 61.74 to 69.64. Energy rally has pushed GSI Commodity Index up from Aug 20 low near 493.33 to recent high near 531.19.
The continued main focus of grain futures is the damage to US gulf export capacity infrastructure. There remains no set time when electricity will be restored to US gulf export terminals.
Black Sea weather forecast suggest increase chance for showers. EU is dry. Brazil is dry. Argentina rains.
There is talk that China is back asking for US PNW soybeans. Still no word on China demand for US corn. There is talk that Argentina soybean supply is tight and they may be out of the soybean export market.
Brazil corn export pace closer to 17-18 mmt vs USDA 23. Brazil 22 corn crop est at 118 mt, up 35 vs ly. Matif corn lower. Canada corn works into N EU. Ukraine corn works into Spain. Baltic lower than EU. US July soybean crush is est near 165 mil bu vs 162 in June and 184 last year. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil and corn futures are all trading lower.
Combined corn, sb, sbm, sbo, wht open interest has dropped from a high of 4,484 to a low 3,135. SX has dropped from $13.35 to 12.85 due to Hurricane impact at Gulf. CZ down from $5.58 to 5.32. BOZ also dropped from 61.55 to 57.60 linked in part to lower palmoil prices and lower Asia demand. WZ dropped from $7.45 to 7.19 on concern about demand and lower corn and soybean prices.
US Midwest rains are forecasted for central US and US east coast. 8-14 day dry, warm west cool east. Farm futures est US 2022 corn acres at 94.3 up 2 pct, soybeans 90.8 up 4 pct, all wheat 49.7 up 6 pct.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 6,000 soybeans; 1,000 soymeal; 3,000 soyoil; and 12,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 4,000 SRW Wheat; long 245,000 Corn; net long 63,000 Soybeans; net long 14,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 61,000 lots of soyoil.
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