ADMIS News
Ag Market View for Apr 19.24
April 19, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SF is down 2 cents and near 14.28. SMF is near 423.3. BOF is sharply lower and near 64.60. Soybean daily limit was expanded to 150 cents, soymeal 45 dollars and soyoil 7 cents. CH is down 4 cents and near 6.56. WH is down 14 cents and near 7.68. KWH is down 16 cents and near 8.73. MWH is down 7 cents and near 9.31. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, copper, coffee, cocoa and sugar are lower.
Soyoil futures are down another 2.38 cents. EPA mandate suggest USDA est of 2022/23 soyoil use for biofuel at 11.8 billion lbs could be 1.0 billion too high. China will auction off 500 mt reserve beans on Dec 9. China bought 10 soybean cargoes, 4 US Dec and 6 Brazil Feb-Mar. US soybean gulf basis was down 15-20 cents. Soyoil selloff also linked to liquidation of large fund 106,000 net long. Argentina soybean plantings are 29 pct vs 50 average. Brazil Real hit 3 week high.
March corn futures are near lowest level since mid-August. US corn export commit is down 48 pct from ly with USDA forecasting a 13 pct drop. Brazil is out of market Feb-Mar and Ukraine logistics are challenging, USDA may be forced to lower US exports 100-150 mil bu. Argentina corn is 25 pct planted vs 35 average. Brazil November corn exports were 6.1 mmt vs 2.4 ly. Brazil exports will exceed USDA est which suggest like last year, Brazil may need to import corn May-June. Matif corn futures are down the 18th day of last 21 and 135 cents.
Wheat futures are lower. WH is lowest since early January. Algeria bought wheat $40 below US HRW. Matif wheat is the lowest since mid-August, Euro is near 5 month high. ENSO update calls for La Nina end by February. This could bring spring rains to US south plains. Argentina wheat harvest is 23 pct vs 45 ly. Crop is rated 8 pct G/E vs 65 ly. Any increase 2023 rains will be too late for their wheat crop. US futures still trending lower searching for new export demand. Russia export prices are near 320 vs US SRW 344.
Argentina is dry. Rains are in 2nd week forecast. Brazil weather is favorable except WC Brazil is dry. Cold weather is expected in Russia and Ukraine. W EU is dry with colder E EU temps next week. US rains in PNW, Delta and SE. US south plains is dry. Updated ENSO suggest the end of La Nina in February. This could bring rains to Argentina and US south plains.
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