Corn Supported by Dry Weather Forecast
Grains are higher. SU is up 9 cents near 14.15. Overnight high was 14.31. SX is up 9 cents and near 14.01. SMU is near 365.0. BOU is near 66.94. CU is up 9 cents and near 5.65. New range could be 5.60-5.80. CZ is up 8 cents and near 5.60. Key resistance 5.97. WU is up 6 cents and near 6.98. KWU is up 6 cents and near 6.58. MWU is up 18 cents and near 9.36. US stocks are lower. Key support 33,300. Asia stocks lower as new US virus cases grow. US Dollar is higher. Resistance is 93.43. Crude is lower on new OPEC production deal. Is Crude worth $65 now? Gold is lower. Most commodities are lower.
Corn supported by dry weather forecast for the Dakotas and MN which account for 20 pct of US corn acres. A 3 bpa drop in US corn yield would drop the 22/22 carryout 250 mil bu. 5-7 drop in yield could suggest a rally in CZ to near 6.50. Drop in South America corn export supplies should increase demand for US corn exports and also lower US carryout. Dalian corn futures were lower.
Soybean futures rallied despite weak soymeal fundamentals and slow US new soybean export demand. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Lower US June NOPA soybean crush offered resistance to soybeans but supported soyoil. Dry weather forecast for the Dakotas and MN could lower yields over 21 pct of US soybean acres. Canada Winnipeg canola futures testing new highs on concern about Canada supplies This is also supporting soyoil prices which supports soybean prices.
Minn spring wheat futures are higher overnight. Concern about NA HRS crop, wet EU crop slowing harvest and lowering quality and hot/dry weather in South Russia could send prices even higher. Forecasts of near record low World exporters stocks to use ratio has some forecasting fall Chicago wheat futures to test 7.20-7.50 and Dec-Feb prices testing 7.50-8.00.
On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 6,000 soybeans, 1,000 soymeal and 2,000 soyoil; and sold 3,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money even SRW Wheat; long 214,000 Corn; net long 88,000 Soybeans; net long 21,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 56,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.