Choppy Trade Continues For Grains
Choppy trade continues with grains higher. SN is up 18 cents and near 15.78. SX is up 13 cents and near 14.31. SMN is near 388.4. BON is near 71.64. CN is up 8 cents and near 6.88. CZ is up 9 cents and near 6.11. WN is up 6 cents and near 6.86. KWN is up 6 cents and near 6.36. MWN is up 10 cents and near 7.95.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Copper lower on increase virus in China and EU. China also continues to try to talk commodity prices down. Index funds continue to roll grain longs out of the July. China Dalian soybean, corn, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower.
USDA lowered US 2021 corn crop to 72 pct G/E. ND 42 pct, SD 46 pct, IA 77, IL 74, NE 84. USDA estimated 67 [ct US 2021 soybean crop is 67 pct G/E. AR 74, IL 73, IA 73, MN 70, ND 25. USDA rated the US 2021 spring wheat crop 38 pct G/E vs 82 ly and lowest since 1988. US 2021 winter wheat crop 2 pct harvested vs 7 ave. Crop is 50 pct G/E vs 48 last week. WA 25.
Rains are forecast for Canada prairies and OH river valley. 8-14 day warm and dry. Russia dry
USDA report Thursday. USDA is not expected to change US 2021 corn acres and yield. Some could see higher US 2021/22 demand and a carryout near 1,200 vs USDA 1,507. Some talk Brazil corn crop near 85-87 mmt. Informa est US 2021/22 carryout near 1,738 due to est of acres closer to 96.8 vs USDA 91.1
Some feel USDA will keep US 20/21 soybean carryout at 120 mil bu. They will not change US 2021 acres and yield. Some could see higher US 2021/22 demand and a carryout near 110 vs USDA 140.
USDA could Increase US 2021 wheat crop but eventually a lower HRW crop could offset higher SRW.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; even corn; bought 4,000 soybeans; 4,000 soyoil and sold 6,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money to be net short 4,000 SRW Wheat; net long 288,000 Corn; long 165,000 Soybeans; long 11,000 Soymeal, and; net long 106,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.