Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 18.24
April 18, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Bad week for grain bulls. SU is down 12 cents and near 13.56. SX is down 12 cents and near 13.50. SMU is near 358/5. BOU is near 63.53. CU is down 3 cents and near 5.61. CZ is down 4 cents and near 5.56. WU is down 2 cents and near 6.90. KWU is unch and near 6.53. MWU is unch and near 9.03.
US stocks are higher on positive earnings. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 12 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, up 53 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 31 1/4; Soybeans down 46 3/4; Soymeal down $19.40; Soyoil down 0.60.
EU weather model moves upper US Midwest ridge to SW day 10. Cools temps from next week heat.
Soybean futures near 20 and 100 day moving average. US summer weather key, SMU below 20 day. US soybean fob price $567. Brazil $553. Argentina $533. US soymeal fob $430, Argentina $383
Canada canola futures higher, Crop est near 15-16 mmt vs USDA 20.2. Some as low as 12 mmt.
Dalian corn/soyoil futures lower. Soybeans, soymeal, palmoil higher. China soybean margins negative.
Managed funds unwilling to add to corn longs given negative seasonal and slow export demand pace.
Corn futures 100 day moving average support at 5.53. Resistance near 50 day 5.73. Gap near 5.88. US fob corn prices near $283, Argentina $238, Brazil $263, Ukraine $275. US export sales -88.
Russia wheat harvest yields below last year. Some now est wheat crop near 80 mmt vs USDA 85. Talk Canada wheat crop 21 mmt vs USDA 31.5. Austrália crop 19 mmt. Crop rated 57 G/E vs 22 ly. US HRW export prices near $313, Baltic $276, Germany $261, Russia $245, French $257. Chicago Sep wheat range 6.80-7.20; KC Sep 6.40-6.80, Minn Sep over 9.00. Range 8.70-9.40
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 6,000 corn; 10,000 soybeans; 5,000 soymeal and 2,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 1,000 SRW Wheat; long 223,000 Corn; net long 76,000 Soybeans; net long 20,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 46,000 Soyoil.
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