ADMIS News
Tech Stabilizes After Selloff
October 23, 2026
COFFEE
December Coffee rallied up into a gap from August 24 on Monday, and closing that gap may be the main target for the market. The Brazilian real gained against the dollar in recent weeks with the strong performance of Bolsonaro in the upcoming Presidential election, and supports coffee on ideas that the strong currency lowers the incentive to export. Despite what appeared to be strong Brazilian exports, ICE exchange stocks have increased only marginally off their lows. ICE certified arabica stocks fell by 915 bags on Monday to 239,852. The 26-year low was 217,646 bags from September 15. World Weather Inc. has noted that parts of Vietnam are drying down a little earlier than usual, which could affect late-season cherry development. Southern Indonesia is in serious drought. Seasonal rains are starting to reach Brazil coffee areas, but in a limited manner.
SUGAR
Sugar is consolidating after rallying off declining supply expectations, many of which are being blamed on El Nino, after a drought in Europe this summer that severely damaged their beet crop, a poor monsoon performance in India, and excess rains in Brazil that have interrupted harvest and crushing and lowered sugar production. The market may be looking the next supply concern to make a new leg higher. Perhaps this will be Thailand. The USDA Foreign Ag Service recently put Thailand’s 2026/27 sugar production at 9.5 million metrics tons, unchanged from the USDA’s official estimate in June and down from 12.0 million in 2025/26. They put 2026/27 Thai sugar exports at 7.0 million tons, up from their previous estimate of 6.0 million. They also revised 2025/26 exports to 8.3 million tons, up from 6.0 million previously. The Thai Meteorological Department reported below-normal accumulated rainfall across most cane growing areas between January 1 and September 30. They expect below-normal rainfall in October and above-normal in November. World Weather Inc. expects heavy rain to return in southern areas of Brazil, which may continue to interrupt cane harvest and crushing activity in the southern part of the center-south region. The Indian government’s recent decision to end cane-to-ethanol production should improve domestic sugar supplies and perhaps lower their raw sugar import needs, but it also underscores the damage the reduced monsoon did to the cane crop there.
COCOA
December Cocoa has stalled around the $6000 level despite strong demand readings and dry weather concerns in West Africa. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters on Monday expressed concerns that the dry weather last week may have caused damage to pods for next year’s harvest. World Weather Inc. has reported rain in Ivory Coast and Ghana but they have describe it as “erratic” and not enough to prevent net drying. The overriding concern is that El Nino will reduce rainfall amounts in what’s left of the wet season and make the dry season drier. Cumulative cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports have reached 114,500 metric tons, down from 132,000 a year ago and below a five-year average of 195,200. This lower arrivals rate is happening despite the fact that Ivory Coast’s official marketing year began in September, one month earlier than usual. Strong third-quarter grind data last week points to robust demand.
COTTON
December Cotton is in a consolidating pattern with reports of mill buying offsetting concerns about the slow export pace. The weekly Crop Progress report released late Monday indicated that the harvest is ahead of normal, with 41% of the crop harvested as of October 18, up from 31% the previous week and above the four-year average for this date at 37%. The report also showed the a modest improvement in crop conditions, with 35% of the crop rated good/excellent, up from 34% the previous week, but below the four-year average for this date at 40%. The average does not include last year because the data was not collected due to the government shutdown. The report also showed 85% of the crop had bolls open, up from 82% the previous week but below the four-year average at 89%. Dry conditions in Texas, the Delta, and the Southeast this week should help harvest advance.
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