ADMIS News
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
COFFEE
May Coffee is lower this morning after an outside day higher yesterday. Less than ideal conditions in Brazil continue to support the market despite recent reports that suggested the crop may be better than feared. Overnight World Weather Service indicated said Brazil could see near to below normal rainfall in April. Yesterday they did mention that coffee areas in Sul de Minas, northeastern Sao Paulo and Cerrado Mineiro may experience some improved rainfall Thursday to Saturday, but once again, they don’t expect it to be enough to provide more than a short term break from stressful conditions. Data from the Vietnam Customs Department indicates that from January 1 to March 15 Vietnam exported more than 400,000 tons of coffee, down 18% from the same period last year. Revenues were up 41% due to higher prices. ICE certified arabica stocks increased by 9,684 bags yesterday to 780,384, down 1,618 from a week prior.
COTTON
Monday’s acreage report was bullish against expectations, but it took a move above the 50-day moving average yesterday to spark a rally. The report showed US 2025 cotton planted area at 9.87 million acres, down from the USDA Outlook Forum estimate of 10.0 million in February and down from 11.2 million for 2024. World Weather Service reports that South Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain saw some flooding last week, but this ended a long period of dryness and could help with future planting, emergence and establishment. West Texas will get some rain late this week, but it is expected to be brief. They need for more. The USDA attaché in Bangladesh is forecasting that country’s imports for 2025/26 at 8.2 million bales, up from 8.1 million in 2024/25 and 7.873 million in 2023/24. They added that the ready-made garment (RMG) industry is expecting a resurgence in work orders on increased demand from major importers. As of last Tuesday, funds were holding a near-record net short position, leaving the market vulnerable to short covering.
COCOA
May Cocoa broke out of a two-week trading range yesterday and traded to its highest level since March 13, and it extended those gains slightly overnight. The market is being supported by concerns about the west African mid-crop following a dry season that was exceptionally dry. Rainfall has improved recently, but not enough to assuage concerns. The market also has found support at the 200-day moving average after testing that level last month. World Weather Service said yesterday that rains will be erratic in west Africa over the next 10 days. They added that rains have been very good in Ivory Coast and Ghana in recent weeks but that Nigeria and Cameroon could use more. Overnight maps indicated that Cameroon did see moderate to heavy rain in some areas. For the moment, the market is not feeling pressure from the steady increase in ICE stocks, which were up another 21,603 bags yesterday to 1.855 million, the highest since October 22. Stocks have increased 17 out of the last 19 sessions.
SUGAR
May Sugar was lower overnight after a sharp rally yesterday. Brazil rains have been on the light side recently, but the cane crop appears to be in decent shape. World Weather Service expects timely rainfall in the first half of April, but the amounts are likely to be less than usual. Sucrose levels may be a little higher, which could help counter a reduction in tonnage. Brazil’s production 2025/26 production is just getting underway. This week, the India Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association reported that Indian mills had produced 24.8 million metric tons of sugar for the year as of March 31. In mid-March the group had lowered its total production forecast for 2024/25 to 26.4 million tons from 27.2 million previously. Their main harvest season is drawing to a close, but some areas still have mills open, and there is a chance for more late-season production in July-September.
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