Black Sea Exports Uncertain


Grains are higher. SF is up 6 cents and near 13.36. SMF is near 438.4.. BOF is near 51.47. CH is unch and near 4.76. WH is up 3 cents and near 5.64. KWH is up 3 cents and near 5.99. MWH is up 4 cents and near 7.04. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.

Cargo Ship

SF is near 13.36. 13.22 is key support. China hog futures dropped due to increase farmer slaughter. China soybean crush margins have turned negative, US soybean exports to date are down 11 pct vs ly vs USDA down 12 pct. Both Brazil and Argentina farmers have slowed cash sales. Argentina farmers waiting to see if new President ends export taxes and aloo drop in currency. Trade est 2024 SA soybean crop ar 7,743 mil bu vs 6,716 ly and US 4,578 vs 4,129 ly.

CH is near 4.76. Corn futures seeing more tech selling as CH hit 28 month low. US corn exports to date are up 25 pct . Both Brazil and Argentina farmers have slowed cash sales. Argentina farmers waiting to see if new President ends export taxes and also drop in currency.  Brazil corn and Dalian corn futures were lower. There remains uncertainty over Black Sea corn exports either due to weather or politics. US does have window for new export. Can increase S Korea and Japan buying support futures without China buying?

Wheat futures are higher. Futures are oversold. There remain some uncertainty over potential Ukraine and Russia wheat exports due to weather and politics. US south Plains saw good snow moisture but forecast is warm and dry. USDA increase winter wheat crop rating 2 pct to 50 G/E. US wheat exports to date are down 23 pct vs ly and USDA 8 pct drop.. Funds increased all wheat short 29k to 153k.

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