Bearish USDA Triggers Selling

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. SX is down 6 cents and near 12.68. SMZ is near 379.8. BOZ is near 55.77. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.80. WZ is up 6 cents and near 5.47. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 6.68. MWZ is up 11 cents and near 7.20. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. US stocks are higher. US avoided a shutdown at least until Nov 17. Trade may now look at SA weather on demand for US exports.

Soybean futures are lower. Bearish USDA stocks report and slow US export demand dropped SX to 12.68. China is on Holiday. China is buying their soybeans from Brazil. Parts of Brazil and Argentina remains dry. USDA estimated 2023/24 soybean carryout near 268 mil bu. Some look at 2024 US acres near 86.0 and yield near 53.0. Crush is estimated at record 2,470 but exports are only 1,720. This could leave US 2024/25 soybean carryout near 480.

Corn futures are higher. USDA Sep 1 corn stocks were lower than expected but US harvest, slow US export pace and higher .Higher US Dollar offers resistance. CZ could be near price to increase consumer risk taking. US ethanol margins remain positive. Parts of Argentina and Brazil remains dry. Managed funds increase net corn short to 164,000. USDA estimated 2023/24 corn carryout near 1,361 mil bu. Some look at 2024 US acres near 92.5 and yield near 181.0. FSR is estimated at 5,900, ethanol 5,400 and exports at 2,000. This could leave US 2024/25 corn carryout near 2,728.

Wheat futures are higher. On Friday, bearish USDA 2023 crop estimate triggered increase selling. Lower Australia, Argentina and Canada crops could offer support. USDA added unprecedented 78 mil bu to final US 2023 wheat crop. Demand for US wheat exports are tepid at best. As expected, USDA estimated US Sep 1 wheat stocks at 1,779 mil bu. Some look at 2024 US acres near 48.7 and yield near 49.0. Food use is estimated at 986, feed 85 and exports at 800. This could leave US 2024/25 wheat carryout near 809.

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now