Bearish USDA Triggers Selling


Grains are mixed. SX is down 6 cents and near 12.68. SMZ is near 379.8. BOZ is near 55.77. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.80. WZ is up 6 cents and near 5.47. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 6.68. MWZ is up 11 cents and near 7.20. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. US stocks are higher. US avoided a shutdown at least until Nov 17. Trade may now look at SA weather on demand for US exports.

Soybean futures are lower. Bearish USDA stocks report and slow US export demand dropped SX to 12.68. China is on Holiday. China is buying their soybeans from Brazil. Parts of Brazil and Argentina remains dry. USDA estimated 2023/24 soybean carryout near 268 mil bu. Some look at 2024 US acres near 86.0 and yield near 53.0. Crush is estimated at record 2,470 but exports are only 1,720. This could leave US 2024/25 soybean carryout near 480.

Corn futures are higher. USDA Sep 1 corn stocks were lower than expected but US harvest, slow US export pace and higher .Higher US Dollar offers resistance. CZ could be near price to increase consumer risk taking. US ethanol margins remain positive. Parts of Argentina and Brazil remains dry. Managed funds increase net corn short to 164,000. USDA estimated 2023/24 corn carryout near 1,361 mil bu. Some look at 2024 US acres near 92.5 and yield near 181.0. FSR is estimated at 5,900, ethanol 5,400 and exports at 2,000. This could leave US 2024/25 corn carryout near 2,728.

Wheat futures are higher. On Friday, bearish USDA 2023 crop estimate triggered increase selling. Lower Australia, Argentina and Canada crops could offer support. USDA added unprecedented 78 mil bu to final US 2023 wheat crop. Demand for US wheat exports are tepid at best. As expected, USDA estimated US Sep 1 wheat stocks at 1,779 mil bu. Some look at 2024 US acres near 48.7 and yield near 49.0. Food use is estimated at 986, feed 85 and exports at 800. This could leave US 2024/25 wheat carryout near 809.


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