Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 11.24
December 11, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 4 cents and near 12.37. SMZ is near 332.6. BOZ is near 61.256 CZ is unch and near 5.63. WZ is down 4 cent sand near 7.68. KWZ is down 7 cents and near 7.85. MWZ is unch and near 10.37. OZ is up 4 cents and near 7.14. Jan soybean board crush margin up 5 cents and near 151.
US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold and copper are lower. Europe interest rate futures higher. Could be trying to soften impact when Central Banks raise rates.
Dalian corn, soybean, palmoil, soyoil, rapeoil higher. Soymeal lower. Matif wheat lower.
There were 1,318 soybean deliveries. Could reflect exports concern about soybean exports esp China. US soybean export commit near 1,120 mil bu down 35 pct ly. No new China announcements. Matif rapeseed futures lower versus higher Canada futures. Canada futures tested all time high 1,037. Some feel USDA could lower US soybean exports and raise crop on Nov 9. Carryout near 400. Bearish .
Debate increase on USDA Nov 9 corn yield. Most look for 1-2 bpa increase. Higher demand? US corn export commit is near 1,175 mil bu or down 3 pct ly vs USDA estimate of a 9 pct drop. Argentina 2022 corn crop 28 pct planted. Argentina est crop 73 pct G/E up 8 and vs 36 ly, Crop 55 mmt. Matif corn futures lower. France farmers told of gas shortage to dry crop. Suggest dry crop in fields.
Weekly US wheat export sales lagging pace to reach USDA goal. US HRW competitive after Jan 1. Argentina raised what crop est to 19.8 mmt, Russia raised wheat crop to 75 mmt. Exports 32 mmt. Argentina wheat crop rated 47 pct G/E up 3 pct abd vs 14 ly. 7 pct of crop harvested vs 4 average. Matif wheat futures lower after Euro Dollar traded higher. Russia wheat export tax near $90. Some fee USDA could raise US wheat carryout on Nov 9 due to lower exports. Lower Canada crop.
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