Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Sept 28.23
September 28, 2023
MORNING OUTLOOK
Happy Thanksgiving. Grains are mixed. SF is up 3 cents and near 14.32. SMF is near 405.5. BOF is near 71.32. CH is unch and near 6.61. WH is unch and near 8.10. KWH is unch and near 9.11. MWH is up 1 cent and near 9.51. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch Crude is lower.
Soybean futures remain rangebound. Concern that increase China Covid cases could reduce their commodity import demand offers resistance. Season to date China soybean crush is down 9 pct vs USDA est of a 9 pct increase. Some estimate that 20 pct of China GDP. Lockdown could lower their import demand. Argentina is dry. Parts of S and WC Brazil is dry. Paraguay is also dry.
Trade continues to wait for official word from Russia that Ukraine export deal that expired Nov 19 will be extended. Some feel Ukraine could export 21.0-23.0 mmt of corn vs USDA 15.5. CH could see increase resistance near 6.75 due to slow exports. Support near 6.55 due to slow farmer selling. Possible US RR strike could be negative especially basis. Ukraine corn harvest is near 50 pct done with farmer opting to leave rest in the field. EU corn futures lower on increase farmer selling and end user lower due to lower margins and increase in bird flu culling. July -June EU corn imports are near 11.5 mmt s 5.1 ly.
Dry US plains weather should support WH near 8.00 and low demand for US exports will limit upside near 8.50. Season to date US wheat exports are down 2 pct vs ly. EU wheat is moving into a west Florida mill. Landed EU wheat is $80 lower than US HRW price. US wheat futures still trending lower looking for new export demand. A US RR strike could weigh on basis. Lower Russia wheat export prices still offers resistance to US wheat futures.
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