Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 5 cents and near 13.27. SX2 is down 10 cents and near 12.69. SMZ is near 352.0. BOZ is near 60.64. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.33. CZ2 is down 2 cents and near 5.18. WZ is up 7 cents and near 7.33. KWZ is up 6 cents and near 7.21. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 9.10.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Stall in Crude rally may be weighing on grains. Financial, currency, energy and commodity markets awaiting Fed comments. Spread of Delta virus could slow US/World economy. There remains a job shortage in key industries.
Global corn, small grain, soybean and wheat yields are unch from 2017 at 3.7 mt/ha. 2000 2.9. Yields determined by soil type, rain, temps and technology. Lack of increase demand higher 2022 acres.
Non US corn exports production down to 187 mmt vs 197 ly. World corn demand up 22 mmt yoy. Weekly US wheat export sales 200-600 mt, soybeans 1,000-2,000, corn 250-1,000.
Key to 21/22 corn prices farmer selling, China export demand; soybean, SA weather and China demand. SD rains and forecast for mor in MN, WI and IA could add soybean bushels there. SA and Russia dry. Near record heat index could stress crops in KS, NE, MO, IL, IN. Yield models est US SB 49, corn 174.
Central Illinois crop survey estimates corn yield at new record 228 bpa vs 203 last year. Tropical storm could hit US Delta next Wed-Thur. Could drop 4.00-9.00 inches of rain. Slow harvest. EU and Black Sea wheat rally slowed from multi year highs. US SRW export prices lower vs French. Russia wheat farmers selling cash in front of large tax increase burden to exporters.
Supply and demand balance suggest good SX support near 13.00, CZ 5.50, KWZ 7.00. Dalian SB, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil prices higher, corn lower. USDA est China 2022 hog crop lower.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 2,000 soymeal and bought 7,000 soybeans; 4,000 soyoil and 7,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 10,000 SRW Wheat; long 273,000 Corn; net long 96,000 Soybeans; net long 21,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 70,000 lots of soyoil.
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