Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is up 1 cent near 13.59. SX is up 1 cent and near 13.51. SMU is near 351.9. BOU is near 64.80. BOU supported by higher World canola prices. CU is down 3 cents and near 5.41. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.30. WU is down 8 cents and near 6.32. KWU is down 9 cents and near 6.05. MWU is down 4 cents and near 8.53.
US stocks are mixed in front of US CPI numbers and Bank earnings. Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher.
WOB failed to make big changes to US corn and soybean S/D. US corn yield still trend 179.5. WOB US soyoil 20/21 exports down 125, 21/22 only 1,450. 20/21 biofuel 9,300, 21/22 12,000? WOB est US 2021/22 corn carryout 1,432 vs 1,357, soybean 155 vs 155 and wheat 665 vs 770.
US oat, sorghum and barley stocks to use ratio record low. Increase corn use/less 22 corn acres?
Weekly US corn rating up 1 to 65 G/E. IL,NE,ND,OH,WI dropped. IA,MI,MN,MO improved. 26 silking. Weekly US soybean rating unch at 59 G/E. IL,IA,NE dropped. MI,MN,MO,SD,TN,WI improved. 59 pct US WW crop harvested vs 65 ly. KS 85, MO 88, WA 10. 16 pct US HRS rated G/E vs 68 ;y
WOB est US 2021 corn crop near 15,155 mil bu vs June est of 14,990. Soybeans 4,405 vs 4,405. NASS est US 2021 wheat crop 1,746 vs 1,898. WW 1,364 vs 1,309, SW 345 vs 560 ly.
WOB est 2021 Canada wheat crop near 31.5 mmt despite fact US spring wheat crop is down 41 pct. WOB est Brazil corn crop at 93.0 vs 98.5, Argentina corn 48.5 vs 47.0. Brazil soybean 137, Arg 46.5. WOB continues to suggest Brazil July-Sep corn exports near 12 mmt? left China imports at 26. WOB est World 21/22 corn carryout at 291.2 mmt vs 289.4, soybean 94.5 vs 92.5, wheat 291.7 vs 296.8.
China June soybean imports 10.7 mmt. Season to date 74.8 up 8 pct. WOB July-Sep est down 21 pct ly?
WOB est Canada canola crop unch at 10.2 mmt versus talk that crop could be down 5-7 mmt. WOB 8 export wheat countries prod down 3 mmt, stocks down 5 mmt. Stocks to use ratio 14 year low. WOB World wheat 21/22 exports record 204 mmt, Kazakhstan Ag Minister fired for not helping farmers.
US fob SBM $423, Argentina $395, US fob corn $273, Argentina $218, US HRW fob $289, Russia $237.
On WOB/NASS Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 14,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 13,000 corn and 11,000 soybeans, 2,000 soymeal and 5,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 208,000 Corn; net long 82,000 Soybeans; net long 24,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 57,000 Soyoil.
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