Ags Are Mixed to Lower
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SF is down 10 cents and near 13.15. SMF is near 408.0. BOF is near 51.45. CH is down 2 cents and near 4.82. WH is up 2 cents and near 6.05. KWH is down 2 cents and near 6.44. MWH is down 2 cents and near 7.28. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Meats were lower Friday.
SF is near 13.15. SMH dropped below 410 support. There remains more concern that a normal 2024 Argentina crop could lower US crush demand. There is talk that annual China imports could increase to 105-108 mmt. Lower trade also due to forecast of good rains across the dry areas on C/N Brazil. Normal Argentina rains could also offer pressure. Funds reduced their net soybean long but remain large soymeal longs. Some est US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 225 vs USDA 246 due to higher crush.
CH is near 4.82. There remains uncertainty over Black Sea corn exports either due to weather or politics. US does have window for new exports. There was talk that China Sino Grain may have been given approval to buy more corn. USDA goal is 23 mmt. Some now estimate total imports between 30-40 mmt mostly JFM. Some now are also est US 2024 corn acres to drop due to higher soybean acres. Funds added to their corn short last week. Most agree US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2,156 but ethanol use could be up 75 mil bu and exports down 75.
Wheat futures are mixed. There remain some uncertainty over potential Ukraine and Russia wheat exports due to weather and politics. Russia export prices remain a discount to other exporters but are trending higher. US south Plains forecast is warm and dry. Trade needs normal north Hemisphere crops to offset lower south Hemisphere crops or futures could trend higher. Key is Russian supplies. Funds added to their wheat short last week.
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