Ag Market View Sep 20


Soybean traded lower. Negative chart formation selling weighed on futures. China futures were closed for Holiday but lower palmoil prices weighed on soyoil. Soybean futures traded below 200 day moving average support near 12.68 for the first time since August, 2020. Trade est that 5 pct of US soybean crop is harvested. Trade est US soybean crop will still be rated 57 pct G/E. Last week, soybean prices rallied on talk that final US soybean yield could drop below 50. Weekly US soybean exports were only 10 mil bu vs 51 last year. Season to date exports are near 18 mil bu vs 136 last year. USDA est US 21/22 soybean exports near 2,090 mil bu vs 2,260 ly. USDA est US 21/22 soybean carryout near 185 vs 175 ly. USDA est 2022 Brazil+Argentina soybean crop near 196 mmt vs 183 ly.


Corn futures traded lower. Corn futures are back in the middle of moving average support near 5.08 and 5.29 resistance. Corn prices trying to balance talk that early corn yields may be below expectations and lack of new China buying. Trade est that 10 pct of US corn crop is harvested vs 4 last week. Trade est US corn crop will still be rated 58 pct G/E. Last week, corn prices rallied on talk that final US corn yield could drop below 170. Weekly US corn exports were only 15 mil bu vs 30 last year. Season to date exports are near 23 mil bu vs 78 last year. USDA est US 21/22 corn exports near 2,475 mil bu vs 2,745 ly. This despite talk of lower Brazil export supplies. Fact US gulf is not yet 100 pct limits weekly exports. Some fear active US soybean export program delayed due to damage due to Ida could limit US corn export capacity. Some now fear China may talk only 16 mmt US corn vs 21 potential. Key is final US yield. A US corn yield 3-4 bpa below USDA Sep est of 176.3 could offset the lower exports.


Wheat futures traded lower along with a host of other commodities. Concern about China economy and crackdown on capitalism weighed on US stocks and energy prices. Talk of higher US debt could increase US individual and corporate taxes rallied US Dollar and also offered resistance to commodity prices. Some feel given drop in World Wheat milling supplies suggest wheat futures especially KC HRW may be oversold. Rains are falling across parts of Russia winter wheat areas. US winter wheat areas remain mostly dry. Trade estimates that 22 pct of the US 2022 winter wheat crop is planted vs 12 last week. Weekly US wheat exports were near 20 mil bu vs 18 last year. Season to date exports are near 283 mil bu vs 318 last year. USDA export goal is 875 mil bu vs 992 ly. WZ is in a 6.80 to 7.20. Same range for KWZ. MWZ is a 8.60-9.00 range.

Steve Freed, ag market consultant

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