Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded higher. Despite the fact USDA announced cancellation of open and unshipped US soybean sales to China and unknown, soybean futures ended higher. US gulf is not yet ready to load soybeans to China so they were forced to pay +300 over for spot Brazil beans. Some feel China supplies are low and crush margins are improving. These sales by Brazil may have cleaned up their export surplus. Brazil soybean prices rallied which could slow their crush. Fact US soybean crop ratings are below last year is beginning to raise doubt in US Sep yield. Talk of dry end to crop season and increase diseases could drop final yield. Managed funds may be back buying soybean on this talk. US August NOPA soybean crush was 158.8 milo bu vs 154.1 expected and 165.0 last year. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 600-1,400 mt vs 1,472 last week.
CORN
Corn futures traded higher. CZ ended near 5.33. Range was 5.20-5.34. CZ is testing the 20 day moving average. Next resistance is near 5.44. Recent buying may be due to fact futures may have been oversold after USDA raised US corn yield and crop on their Sep report. US domestic cash corn basis is also sharply higher as US stocks are drawn down before harvest. Finally, early corn yields are near or below farmers estimates. Some feel dry end to season and some diseases may have taken the top off some fields. Dry 2 week US Midwest forecast should speed harvest up with additional corn harvest data. Some feel final US corn yield could drop below 170. Some feel USDA Sep yield used a 5 year average of ear weight which may be too high. US end user coverage is limited as most were waiting for a harvest low. Many analyst are also using a higher final US corn export estimate than USDA . Trade estimates weekly US corn export sales near 500-1,000 mt vs 905 last week. Fact Crude and Nat Gas prices are on the rise may also be helping corn futures. Weekly US ethanol production was higher than last week but lower than last year. Stocks were lower than last week but still above last year. Margins have improved.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. Higher corn prices and talk of lower EU and Russia exports may have helped futures. Recent estimate of lower Canada 2021 wheat crop may have also supported prices. Dry weather in US south plains and Russia Wheat areas may also be adding a weather premium to prices. Concern about US and global food demand had weighed on wheat futures to recent lows. WZ ended near 7.12. Range was 6.95 to 7.14. WZ pushed over 7.02 and 7.11 resistance as managed funds covered short positions. Next level of resistance is 7.19. Key resistance is near 7.49. KWZ ended near 7.15. There was talk that a higher 2022 US wheat loan program price might increase US 2022 all wheat acres. MWZ also traded back over 9.00 and ended near 9.04. US domestic end user need to add to 2021 and 2022 coverage. Talk that only 9 mmt of France 36 mmt crop is milling quality also suggest World buyers are short.
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