Ag Market View for Sept 27.22

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade was choppy. Prices started higher overnight with most commodities and lower Dollar. Market failed to attract new buying once Dollar turned higher. Commodity prices continues to be dominated by fact Central Banks will continue to increase rates that could slow food and feed demand. US harvest data was lower than expected but 30 day US Midwest weather should be dry. This should help maturation and harvest. Market is trying to find support due to strong US domestic basis and evening up before Fridays USDA stocks report. This report and October crop report could limit new selling at current prices just in case USDA shows lower supplies. US harvest, higher Dollar, lower China demand for US soybeans and talk of higher 2023 soybean supply could eventually weigh on futures. Brazil farmers are starting to plant the 2023 crop. Some feel normal weather and higher yield could produce a record 158 mmt 2023 crop. Brazil is expected to plant 105 mil acres vs US 87.

CORN

Corn futures ended slightly higher. CZ traded higher overnight with lower Dollar and turn around in most commodities from Mondays lows. USDA estimated US maturity and harvest below expectations. This continues to support the basis. US farmer continues to be a slow seller on corn as they remain bullish. US 30 day weather forecast calls for dry weather. This should aid corn crop maturation and harvest. US corn export sales commit remains only 50 pct of last year. Ukraine and South America export prices remain below US. Fact Russia issued another nuclear threat raises uncertainty over Ukraine vessel exports. Ukraine is asking for open grain trade routes into EU to be permanent in case Russia closes the export corridor either before or after the deal deadline November 22. China has started auctioning off long dates wheat for feed. China will auction 40 mt with even more auctions ahead. China could also auction broken rice for feed. US Miss river water levels are in decline. This is increase barge freight rate which weighs on interior basis levels. Some are moving grain movement to rail. USDA Sep 30 stocks report and October crop report could limit new selling at current prices just in case USDA shows lower supplies. US harvest, higher Dollar, lower demand for US corn exports and talk of higher 2023 South America supply could eventually weigh on futures.

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WHEAT

Corn futures ended slightly higher. CZ traded higher overnight with lower Dollar and turn around in most commodities from Mondays lows. USDA estimated US maturity and harvest below expectations. This continues to support the basis. US farmer continues to be a slow seller on corn as they remain bullish. US 30 day weather forecast calls for dry weather. This should aid corn crop maturation and harvest. US corn export sales commit remains only 50 pct of last year. Ukraine and South America export prices remain below US. Fact Russia issued another nuclear threat raises uncertainty over Ukraine vessel exports. Ukraine is asking for open grain trade routes into EU to be permanent in case Russia closes the export corridor either before or after the deal deadline November 22. China has started auctioning off long dates wheat for feed. China will auction 40 mt with even more auctions ahead. China could also auction broken rice for feed. US Miss river water levels are in decline. This is increase barge freight rate which weighs on interior basis levels. Some are moving grain movement to rail. USDA Sep 30 stocks report and October crop report could limit new selling at current prices just in case USDA shows lower supplies. US harvest, higher Dollar, lower demand for US corn exports and talk of higher 2023 South America supply could eventually weigh on futures.

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