Ag Market View for Sept 23.22


Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil futures ended lower. SX ended lower and below 14.47 and 14.37 support and tested 14.23 support. Weak started higher after USDA dropped US G/E soybean crop rating. Tight US old crop supply also offered support. US Central Bank raising rates 75 basis points and talk of higher rates to fight inflation rallied USD and weighed on commodity prices. Fact China is a slow buyer of soybean and only Argentina also weighed on Soybean prices. Talk that once US new crop soybean are crushed and soymeal pipeline is refilled weighed on soymeal prices. USDA estimates Brazil 2023 soybean crop near 151 mmt up 25 from last year and Argentina at 50 mmt up 6 from last also offers longterm resistance to prices. Some could even see Brazil crop closer to 160 mmt.

Harvested Corn


Corn futures ended lower. USD is making new highs. Crude oil is making news lows and lowest since Jan, 2022. China Jan-Aug grain imports was 39.7 mmt vs 45.3 ly. Corn 16.9 vs 21.4. Concern about US export demand and slowdown in gas/ethanol use offers resistance. Sell stops were hit Below to 20 DMA near 6.78. Trade below the 200 DMA near 6.65 would be negative. Approaching US harvest could also begin to fill pipeline and could help push futures even lower. The week started higher after USDA lowered US G/E crop rating. One crop watcher lowered his US corn yield 1 bpa to 169. Fact US Fed raised rates 75 basis points offered resistance. Talk that Fed will continue to raise rates To fight inflation rallied USD and weighed on US stocks and all commodities. USDA estimated US 2022 food prices will increase 10 pct and highest since 1979 and grocery store prices 11.5 pct and highest since 1974 increased worries about food demand. Russia increased war rhetoric offered uncertainty to World corn trade with Ukraine, Brazil and Argentina corn export prices below US. China Jan-Aug grain imports were 39.7 mmt versus 45.3 ly. Corn is down to 16.9 vs 21.4 ly.


Wheat futures also ended lower with price risk dropping. There are still uncertainties over Black Sea exports but Russia wheat export prices are below Germany, France and US. This week, estimates of Russia wheat crop were increased to 100 mmt vs USDA 91 and 75 last year. US south plains reman dry. USDA estimated US 2022 food prices will increase 10 pct and highest since 1979 and grocery store prices 11.5 pct and highest since 1974 increased worries about food demand.

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