Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Sept 2.2026
September 2, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.03 lower in choppy 2-sided trade while spreads weakened. Dec-26 futures did carve out a new contract high for a 4th consecutive session. O.I. increased 20k contracts in yesterday’s trade. Corn used for ethanol production in July-26 reached 475 mil. bu. up 3.7% YOY. YTD usage for the 25/26 MY has reached 5.068 bil. bu. requiring Aug-26 usage to reach 482 mil. bu. vs. 463 mil. YA to reach the USDA est. of 5.550 bil. bu. Weekly data from EIA showed production slipped 326 mil. gallons last week, down from 327 mil. the previous week, however, up 3.3% YOY. There was 109 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.57 mil. bu. per day, taking usage to 5.502 bil. Stocks fell to 25.0 mil. barrels, still well above YA at 22.6. Surging corn prices have cut into processing margins in recent weeks. USDA Sec. Rollins yesterday announced they would modernize their data collection techniques to include satellite imagery and AI to improve the accuracy of their reports. Allendale is forecasting US production at 15.833 bil. bu. with an average yield of 178.7 bpa, down 180 mil. bu. from the USDA forecast in August. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 12-65 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices close lower across the complex with beans down $.05-$.08, meal was $2-$3 lower while bean oil is down over $.01 ½ lb. Nov-26 beans traded to a new contract high for a 6th consecutive session while holding downside support at $13.00. Oct-26 meal traded to a new 2-year high before pulling back. Oct-26 oil closed its gap from earlier in the week. Crush margins slumped $.22 to $2.20 bu. while bean oil PV fell back to 51%. The USDA announced a flash sale of 202k mt (7.4 mil. bu.) to China. We had the combined long position in the soybean complex is likely back below 500k contracts, still close to the all-time high from May-26 at nearly 502k. Census crush in July-26 at 222 mil. bu. was slightly above expectations. YTD crush at 2.436 mil. bu. are up 8.4% YOY, in line with the USDA est. Crush in Aug-26 will need to reach 219 mil. bu. to reach the USDA forecast, vs. only 198 mil. YA. Bean oil stocks slipped to 1.963 bil. lbs. however was above expectations of 1.878 bil. Combined biodiesel and RD production in June at 515 mil. gallons was a new all-time high, up from 497 mil. gallons in May. Soybean oil usage also reached a new all-time monthly high at 1.556 bil. lbs. To reach the USDA forecast of 14.7 bil. lbs. for the 25/26 MY, usage over the last 3 months of the MY will need to reach 1.457 bil. lbs. month. Poor US finishing weather combined with Chinese buying will likely limit a correction to the $12.50-$12.75 range basis Nov-26 futures. Allendale is forecasting US production at 4.515 bil. bu. with an average yield of 52.6 bpa, down only 4 mil. from the USDA forecast in August. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 45-95 mil. bu. of beans, 125-975k tons of meal and -10-10k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.11 lower to $.05 higher. CGO Dec-26 was down $.08 ½ at $7.74, KC Dec-26 was $.11 lower at $8.34 ¼ while Dec-26 MIAX is $.05 higher at $7.82. All 3 classes established new contract highs while CGO and KC both narrowly avoided a key reversal day. Russia’s Economy Ministry announced they would pause export duties on grain shipments through the end of 2026. Russian missile strikes targeted the port city of Odesa overnight, damaging grain infrastructure along with a residential building. Ukraine’s food exports fell to 2.15 mmt in August, down 41.5% from June, while grain exports at 774k mt were down 67%. Ukraine’s largest farmer’s union stated they need to prepare for deep water ports to be closed until at least early 2027. Germany’s Ag. Ministry estimates this year’s grain harvest will be off 7.3% from YA at 37.4 mmt. Export sales are expected to range from 12-24 mil. bu.
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