Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Oct 9.2026
October 9, 2026
CORN
While difficult to find anything supportive in today’s USDA data the soybean complex rebounded sharply (led by meal) in the last hour of trade to close moderately higher. Corn briefly traded down its daily limit of $.30 bu. however, bounced to close well off session lows. The market needs to find a price level that stimulates better demand.
Corn: Higher yields in the WCB only make sense if harvested acres are lowered with more acres cut for silage or abandoned as failed, something that will be closely monitored in future reports. We’ll likely need to see Chinese interest in US corn for price to climb back above $5.00 bu.
- 2025/26 Feed usage cut 231 mil. bu. to get stocks up to 2.095 bil.
- 2026 production raised 234 mil. to 16.034 bil. Nearly 315 mil. above expectations
- Ave US Yield raised to 181.2 bpa, the 2nd highest ever
- NE yields up 11 bpa from last month, TX +8, MI +7, OH and SD +6
- 2026/27 ending stocks rose 282 mil. bu. to 1.849 bil., 180 mil. above expectations
- 2026/27 demand raised 125 mil. to 16.305 bil. with feed and ethanol use of 50 mil. each, exports up 25 mil.
- The Ave. Farm Price was cut $.10 to $4.70 bu.
- Global stocks up over 8 mmt to 280 mmt, well above expectations
- Brazil saw another 2 mmt of exports shifted to domestic usage for ethanol
- China’s 2026/27 corn imports held steady at 5 mmt
SOYBEANS
Nov-26 beans fell to a 6-week low before recovering to close $.04 ½ higher. Dec-26 meal was up $8 per ton at $365.60 while Dec-26 oil was up 10 points at 68.02. Crush margins jumped to a 2-month high, up $.14 to $2.60 ½ bu. with meal PV reaching 51.8%. I suspect it will be difficult for US production to go much higher with record yields already being forecast. Prices will continue to be sensitive to the pace of Chinese purchases with an increased focus on SA weather and growing conditions. Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall near the Florida/Alabama border tonight as a Category 2 or 3 storm. Damaging winds and coastal flooding are expected while minimal impact on Gulf export operations. Harvest activity in the SE and ECB will be delayed while crop damage will likely be limited to cotton in AL/GA.
- 2025/26 US crush and export were lowered while residual use up 20 mil. to get stocks down to 315 mil.
- 2026 Production raised 27 mil. to 4.562 bil. vs. expectations of unchanged
- Ave US Yield raised to 53.1 bpa, a record high
- Yields were up 4 bpa in TN, 3 bpa in MI and OH, while up 2 bpa in IL, ND, and AR
- Yields were down 2 bpa in KS, MS, and MO
- 2026/27 ending stocks rose 5 mil. bu. to 315 mil., 10 mil. above expectations
- 2026/27 demand raised 12 mil. to 4.587 bil. with exports up 10 mil.
- The Ave. Farm Price was left unchanged at $12 bu.
- Global stocks little changed at 124 mmt, slightly above expectations
- No changes to S. American production while China import also unchanged at 115 mmt
WHEAT
No major surprises in today’s data to impact wheat a whole lot. US stocks were slightly above expectations due to lower exports but probably overdue for a reduction. Black Sea headlines will continue to drive prices while improved moisture in the US southern plains will work to limit rally attempts. No major data from the USDA on wheat until the Jan-27 report on production, stocks and 2027 winter acres.
- 2026/27 ending stocks rose 23 mil. bu. to 740 mil., 20 mil. above expectations
- Exports were cut 25 mil., imports up 5 mil.
- By class stock changes were HRW +14 mil., White +12 mil., SRW +6 mil. while HRS -8 mil.
- Farm Priced lowered $.10 to $6.30 bu.
- Global stocks little changed at 276 mmt, slightly below expectations
- Russian exports cut 3 mmt to 40 mmt, partially offset by Argentina and Canada both up .5 mmt
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