Ag Market View for Oct 5th


Soybeans traded higher. Some link the buying to traders liquidating long grain and short soybeans spreads. Not a lot of new news to justify the new trade. Some feel higher palmoil prices, higher World rapeseed prices and higher soyoil prices may have triggered the buying. Some feel that soybean futures had been under pressure due to talk of higher US supply, lower China imports of US soybean, potential for higher South America 2022 crops and higher US 2022 soybean acres. USDA est that US soybean crop was still rated 58 pct G/E with 34 pct of crop harvested. Talk that the crop moisture is drier than normal could suggest a speedy harvest. One crop watchers raised their soybean yield from 50.8 to 51.3 and a crop of 4,436 mil bu vs USDA 4,374 but offered little resistance to prices. Informa also estimated the US 2021 crop at 4,421 mil bu. With carryin now of 256 and total Informa use near 4,361 this could suggest a 21/22 Informa carryout near 315.


Corn futures ended lower. There was some talk that liquidation of long corn and short soybeans spreads may have weighed on corn. Not a lot of news to justify the new trade. USDA continued to estimate US corn crop 59 pct G/E with 29 pct of the corn crop harvested. For the most part yields to date have been a little lower than expected. Farmers are still light sellers of new corn sales. Some end users are beginning to raise the basis to try to buy corn before the end of harvest. Today, there was a few end users that were beginning to buy 2022 futures to hedge against higher corn prices post harvest. One crop watcher lowered their corn yield 1 bpa from their previous estimate. Their crop is still near 15,022 mil bu vs USDA 14,996. Informa also estimated the US corn yield near 176.8 and a crop of 15,085 mil bu. The carryin is near 1,236. This and Informa demand est of 15,001 suggest a carryout of 1,346 vs USDA 1,408. Some feel that final US crop could be lower than USDA Sep estimate and that demand could be higher with carryout near 1,100. CZ ended near 5.37. CZ backing away from 5.50 resistance. CZ support is near 5.27. Informa also lowered Ukraine crop 2.0 mmt. Matif corn futures made new highs due to late French harvest. Key Brazil corn areas could see rains next week. Argentina is expected to remain dry.


Wheat futures traded lower. Talk of rains next week across parts of US and Russia winter wheat areas and Russia may be offering wheat for export may have triggered liquidations on long wheat positions. Some feel Russian exports may want to export as much wheat as possible before export tax increases and export quotas begin in January. This could offer resistance short term but friendly long term. Informa lowered Canada wheat crop by 1.4 mmt, Argentina 1.0 mmt and US supply 1.4 mmt. Some feel that EU wheat exports could drop 3-5 mmt and Russia 3-4 mmt. Egypt announced a new tender that includes US SRW. USDA announced that 47 pct of the US winter wheat crop is planted. KS is 42, OK 37, AR 10, MO 6, OH 25, WA 77. Matif wheat futures are making new highs on talk of lower EU exports. Analyst suggest that US farmers increase 2022 crop cash sales on further rally. Some tech watchers were suggesting that wheat futures were becoming overbought and due for a correction.

Steve Freed, Ag market analyst

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