Ag Market View for Oct 4th


Soybean ended lower on lack of new US soybean export sales to China, increase US soybean supply and continued US harvest. Rains in central Brazil and south Argentina and forecast of rains in north Brazil also offered resistance. Slightly better weekly US soybean exports failed to offer support. Higher energy prices and palmoil prices offered support to soyoil futures versus soymeal. Soymeal traded down to lowest levels since October, 2020. Weekly US soybean exports were near 31 mil bu vs 17 last week and 76 last year. Season to date exports are near 67 mil bu vs 260 last year. Most in the trade could see final US soybean exports closer to 2,050 vs USDA 2,090. Trade est US soybean crop rated 58 pct G/E or unchanged from last week. Trade also estimates that 32 pct of the crop is harvested vs 16 last week.


Corn futures ended slightly lower. Higher energy prices offered support. Talk of lower demand and uncertainty of US and China trade relations offered resistance. Ongoing US harvest also limits new speculative buying despite a lack of new farmer selling and talk yields might be a little lower than expected. Trade still waiting for news about US response to US and China traded agreement. Corn end users should consider adding to 2022 cash coverage. Some feel US/World corn supply could get tighter and could push prices higher. Most doubt USDA will make big changes to US 2021/22 corn October supply and demand. Weekly US corn exports were near 31 mil bu vs 25 last week and 35 last year. Season to date exports are near 81 mil bu vs 146 last year. Some in the trade could see final US corn exports closer to 2,600 vs USDA 2,475. Trade est US corn crop rated 59 pct G/E or unchanged from last week. Trade also estimates that 29 pct of the crop is harvested vs 18 last week. CZ remains in a slight uptrend since the Sep 10 low. CZ support is near 5.26. Key resistance 5.48.


Wheat trade was mixed. WZ gained I cent and was near 7.56. KWZ dropped 5 cents and ended near 7.54. MWZ ended down 1 cent and near 9.27. Lower US Dollar offered support. Concern about final Russia wheat exports vs USDA guess and lower EU milling wheat supply also offered support. There is chances of showers in US HRW are next week. Russia winter wheat areas could also see some showers next week. This could offer resistance to KC wheat futures. Weekly US wheat exports were near 22 mil bu vs 14 last week and 25 last year. Season to date exports are near 320 mil bu vs 365 last year. Higher World wheat prices is supportive. Some feel tight global wheat supplies and concern about US south plains 2022 weather could allow WZ to test 8.00.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now