Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 11.24
December 11, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybean prices failed again near 12.50. Higher soyoil price direction has helped soybean futures rally from the recent low near 11.84. Lower energy prices and concern over China demand as Covid cases rise has pulled BOZ back below 61. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 43 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,119 mil bu vs 1,723 ly. Talk of higher China hog profit margins increase talk of higher domestic China soymeal buying. This is helping soymeal gain on soyoil. China US soybean commit is near 590 mil bu or 16.0 mmt. Some were hoping they will take 30 mmt or 2,010 mil bu. Some estimate US soybean exports closer to 2,020 vs USDA 2,090.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. Talk of delays in the US 2021 corn harvest, higher World fertilizer prices led by nitrogen and talk of increase demand for US corn has helped CZ test 5.68. Some feel todays higher corn price action could be the result of short option call short covering. Some feel corn futures may be near key resistance until more is known about USDA November US corn yield and adjusted 2021/22 corn carryout. Some feel that corn prices could eventually trend higher on talk USDA should increase corn demand for US ethanol. Weekly US corn export sales were near 35 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,173 mil bu vs 1,203 last year. China commit is near 470 mil bu or 11.9 mmt. There is 100 mil bu in unknown or 2.6 mmt. Market was hoping China would take 20 mmt or 790 mil bu. US prices remain competitive to World buyers. Canada may need to import 5 mmt or 200 mil bu. Some feel final US corn exports could be 300 mil bu higher than USDA. EU Matif corn futures made new highs. There is more talk that EU, Brazil and US farmers may reduce 2022 corn planted acres due to higher cost at a time when US demand is increasing and carryout is declining.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. WZ ended near 7.73. Range was 7.51-7.80. KWZ ended near 7.89. Range was 7.76-7.97. Some are watching to see if on Friday if Russia wheat export tax increase. This could be the catalyst for KWZ to trade and close over 8.00. MWZ ended near 10.37. Range was 10.20-10.41. Tight Global free milling wheat supplies remains supportive. Record low World exporters stocks to use ratio also offers support. There remains talk that a few N Africa and Middle East wheat buyers may be having payment problems. Morocco announced they will suspend import duty on soft wheat and durum after Nov 1. Talk of concern over US and Black Sea 2022 winter wheat crops due to La Nina is also supportive long term. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 10 mil bu. Total commit is near 463 vs 594 last year. USDA goal is 875 vs 992 last year. Some estimate the US HRW prices are competitive to buyers after Jan 1.
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